Lumber prices prepare for a strong breakout from a 2 year-long consolidation. Since the beginning of 2013, prices have been consolidating in a contracting range with the boundaries now standing at 360 and 300 levels. Latest rally towards the upper boundary suggests prices are likely to challenge the strong resistance in the following days/week. A decisive breakout above 360 levels will be positive and will target 400 levels in the short/medium-term.
Here are some of the emerging market currencies that I see vulnerable against the U.S. dollar in the medium/long-term. U.S. dollar had a strong rally against major cross rates and most of the emerging market currencies. In the short-term we might be due for a pull-back and some weakness for the U.S. dollar but in the medium/long-term we should keep a close eye on these EM currencies.
Brazilian real is weakening towards 2.45 levels. Last one years’ move formed a sideways consolidation. Breakout above 2.45 will be negative for BRL.
I drew attention to the earlier breakout on the Peruvian Nuevo Sol. This was a nice ascending triangle with the resistance at 2.82. Resistance becomes the new support.
Indonesian Rupiah is forming a consolidation right below the decade-long horizontal resistance. Breakout above 12,400 will cause long-term damage on this cross-rate.
Indian Rupee held above the 3 year-long trend line. This shows that the uptrend is still intact. Unless we see USD/INR establishing a move below its 200-day average, I would favor USD against the Indian Rupee.
Russian Ruble continues its slide against the U.S. dollar. Resistance at 36.50 became support. Unless price falls below 36.50, this chart is poised for higher levels.
Scotland will remain part of United Kingdom following historic referendum vote. What is next for the financial markets? Over the past few weeks we have seen increased volatility in the currency markets. GBP/USD cross rate fell from 1.68 levels to 1.60. It is now rebounding back to 1.645 levels. For the equity markets we can’t say the same. It’s been relatively quiet. UK FTSE 100 index remained below the historical high levels at 6,880. This is a 15 year-long resistance and I believe breakout to all-time high levels will be very positive. Below I shared two charts on the UK FTSE 100 index. A monthly chart that covers the last 25 years and a daily chart that shows the last 2 years consolidation. Over the past 2 years there has been 6 to 7 attempts to clear the resistance at 6,880 levels. None of them were successful. Both the long-term and the short-term chart suggests a breakout above 6,880 should be powerful and push UK FTSE 100 index higher in the coming months.
Monthly scale chart of UK FTSE 100 index
Daily scale chart of UK FTSE 100 index
Long-term opportunities don’t often come along. So when they do it’s worth paying attention to these developments. In the beginning of 2014, AUD/NZD cross-rate was finding support at a multi-decade horizontal trend line. Base formation took more than 5 months to develop. I sent out two updates one in (April 30,2014) and one in (June 4, 2014) drawing attention to a major low. Similar technical chart development is now presenting itself on the JPY/SGD. Cross-rate is reaching a multi-decade support area between 1.15-1.17. This could be a major low for the JPY/SGD. Though, it is important to note that base formation could take several months.
Global equity markets are at a critical juncture. Most of the major equity benchmarks are testing multi-year trend resistances. These are decade-long trend lines and if they are broken on the upside, it will signal further equity market strength for coming years.
STOXX 50 (includes UK companies), an equity benchmark for Europe, is testing 14 year-long trend resistance at 3,100 levels. While breakout would require a significant amount of energy (either positive news flow or expectation of positive economic outlook in the Euro zone), such price action (a decisive break above 3,100) will be extremely bullish for the European equities.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 index is testing a 20 year-long trend resistance at 16,500 levels. Decisive break above the strong multi-decade resistance will be extremely positive for the Japanese equities.
UK’s FTSE 100 index is now challenging historical high levels at 6,860. Breakout above the multi-decade horizontal resistance will also be a bullish signal for the global equity markets.
Last but not least, MSCI ALL COUNTRIES WORLD INDEX, which is a broad representation of global equity market performance is challenging historical high levels.
Over the past 4 years, China has been an under-performer. Chinese equity market has clearly lagged the global recovery. Though, poor performance can end soon. Several Chinese companies are listed in Hong Kong and the Hang Seng Index is ready to breakout from a flat range. Hang Seng index is pushing above strong resistance area between 24,000-25,000. Next price target could be the upper boundary of the trend channel at 28,000 levels.
Dollar is gaining strength against major currencies. Recent breakout on the U.S. dollar index confirms this. Other than Euro and Japanese yen weakness we are also seeing depreciation in emerging market currencies. Combined weakening effect of the developed and emerging market currencies resulted in a sharp price movement on the U.S. dollar index. Latest breakout above 81.60 completed a “double bottom” chart pattern with a price target of 84-85 area for the coming weeks. Price should remain above 81.60 levels for the dollar strength to resume in the medium-term. 81.60 becomes the new support level.
Some exciting chart developments are taking place in the emerging market currencies. Peruvian Nuevo Sol; local currency of Peru is losing strength against the U.S. dollar. Latest chart development – ascending triangle on the weekly scale – is bullish for the dollar and suggests further depreciation of the Peruvian Nuevo Sol. Breakout above 2.82 levels will confirm the bearish case for PEN.
Another currency pair that is at the edge of a breakout is the Russian Ruble. Since the beginning of 2009 USD/RUB tested 36.50 for the third time. Breakout above 36.50 will be negative for the Russian currency. It is important to note that 36.50 is the historical high for the USD/RUB.
Year-long consolidation in Gold prices should end soon. A strong trend period should follow once the symmetrical triangle is resolved in one direction. Volatility has decreased on weekly scale and this increased the likelihood of high volatility period in the following weeks/months. Boundaries of the consolidation stand at 1,270 and 1,360 levels. Breakout above 1,360-1,400 area will push gold price higher towards 1,525 levels. Breakdown below 1,250-1,270 support area will result in another downtrend towards 1,150 levels.
U.S. housing starts was down another 9.3 percent in June after declining 7.3 percent in May. Latest figure stands at 893,000. Here is why we should actually pay close attention to 840,000 levels in the following months. Yes, technical analysis can also be applied to economic time series. Anything that is a product of human interaction in free markets is a subject of technical analysis and this historical chart on U.S. housing starts clearly shows the boundaries of the supply and demand.
Over the past half-century U.S. housing starts fluctuated between 2.2 million and 840,000 with one exception during the sub-prime mortgage crisis. Because the housing market was the epicenter of the financial melt-down during the 2007-2009 decline, housing starts data inevitably undershoot the 840K levels. Since October 2012, housing starts are above the historical threshold. For the housing market recovery to remain intact, housing starts should hold above 840K levels.
Taiwan still needs to prove itself. However, sooner or later breakout from this long-term chart pattern will present tremendous opportunity. 24 year-long sideways consolidation might be close to completion. Breakout should be powerful and preferably once confirmed this market shouldn’t look back. There are two more resistance levels that I will be following and these are 9,700 and 10,350 levels. Taiwan is an emerging market that must be on your watch list.
