DEVELOPED MARKET EQUITIES Archives | Page 3 of 27

GLOBAL EQUITY MARKETS-21/01/2017

January 21, 2017/0 Comments/in DEVELOPED MARKET EQUITIES, EMERGING MARKET EQUITIES, Uncategorized/by Aksel Kibar

Every week I post the latest additions to the #TECHCHARTSWATCHLIST. Stocks that qualify to the watch list are those that have well-defined and mature chart patterns that are likely to resolve in a strong directional movement. Stocks that breakout from those well-defined chart patterns are brought to your attention under the #TECHCHARTSALERT. Both the watch list and the alerts are covered in this weekly update. As usual there are several great chart setups in this week’s update both from Developed and Emerging markets.

#TECHCHARTSWATCHLIST

DICKERDATA FPO (DDR.AX)

DICKER DATA LTD. is a small cap technology company listed on the Australian Stock Exchange. The company is engaged in the wholesale distribution of computer hardware, software and related products. Price chart of DICKERDATA formed a 4 month-long rectangle. This week’s price action pushed the stock from the lower boundary of its range to the upper boundary. A daily close above 2.47 will confirm the breakout from the bullish continuation chart pattern. Breakout will also push the stock to all-time high levels.

DICKERDATA – WEEKLY SCALE

CINEWORLD GROUP (CINE.L)

CINEWORLD GROUP is a consumer cyclical company listed in the UK. The stock price formed a text-book cup & handle chart pattern. Cup & handle is considered to be a bullish continuation chart pattern. The horizontal boundary stands at 600 level. Breakout from the 16 month-long consolidation can target 720 levels. A daily close above 618 levels will confirm the breakout from the well-defined chart pattern. Breakout will also push the stock to all-time high levels.

CINEWORLD – WEEKLY SCALE

TAMBURI INVESTMENT PARTNERS (TIP.MI)

TAMBURI is a financial company listed on the Milan Stock Exchange. The company provides services of investment banking and advisory in corporate finance transactions. The stock price formed a 20 month-long H&S continuation chart pattern with the horizontal boundary standing at 3.75 levels. H&S continuation chart pattern price target stands at 4.8 levels. A daily close above 3.85 levels will confirm the breakout from the multi-month consolidation and push the stock to all-time high levels.

TAMBURI – WEEKLY SCALE

LIBERTY INTERACTIVE CORP. (LVNTA.O)

LIBERTY INTERACTIVE CORP. is a consumer cyclical company listed on the NASDAQ. The company owns interests in subsidiaries and other companies that are engaged in the video and digital commerce industries. The stock price formed a 20 month-long H&S continuation chart pattern with the strong horizontal resistance standing at 41.15 levels. H&S continuation chart pattern price target stands at 50.85 levels. A daily close above 42.40 will confirm the breakout from the multi-month consolidation and push the stock to all time high levels.

LIBERTY INTERACTIVE – WEEKLY SCALE

ANDRITZ AG (ANDR.VI)

ANDRITZ is an industrial company listed in the Vienna Stock Exchange. The stock price formed a year-long ascending triangle with the strong horizontal boundary standing at 49.75 levels. The ascending triangle can act as a bottom reversal. A daily close above 50.75 will confirm the breakout from the multi-month consolidation.

ANDRITZ – WEEKLY SCALE

CHINA COMMUNICATIONS CONSTRUCTION (1800.HK)

CHINA COMM CONS. is an industrial company listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. The company is engaged in the infrastructure construction of ports, roads, bridges and railways. The price chart formed a text-book symmetrical triangle. Symmetrical triangles are usually considered to be continuation chart patterns. The upper boundary of the 8 month-long symmetrical triangle was breached this week with a close at 9.40 levels. I will be looking for a daily close above 9.75 levels to confirm the breakout.

CHINA COMM CONS – WEEKLY SCALE

SINOMA (1893.HK)

CHINA NATIONAL MATERIALS is basic materials company listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. The company is engaged in the provision of cement equipment and engineering services, the production and sales of cement and high-tech materials. While there is still room for the price chart to complete the symmetrical triangle, I thought it is interesting to share these two similar chart patterns in Hong Kong operating in related industries. The 8 month-long symmetrical triangle has resistance at 2.0 levels.

SINOMA – WEEKLY SCALE

ADIRA FINANCE (ADMF.JK)

ADIRA FINANCE is a financial company listed on Jakarta Stock Exchange. Stock price formed a 5 month-long rectangle continuation chart pattern. Strong horizontal resistance was tested for 5 times over the past 5 months. Resistance stands at 6,700 levels. A daily close above 6,900 will confirm the breakout from the sideways consolidation.

ADIRA FINANCE – WEEKLY SCALE

SALIM IVOMAS PRATAMA (SIMP.JK)

SALIM IVOMAS is a consumer non-cyclical company listed on the Jakarta Stock Exchange. Stock price formed a 9 month-long symmetrical triangle. This week’s price action reversed from the upper boundary of the sideways consolidation at 535 levels. A daily close above 555 levels will confirm the breakout from the bullish continuation chart pattern.

SALIM IVOMAS – WEEKLY SCALE

#TECHCHARTSALERT

FORMPIPE (FPIP.ST)

FORMPIPE had a strong breakout during the week. Breakout was confirmed with a daily close above 10 levels. Strong price action not only cleared the 16 month-long resistance for the ascending triangle but also the multi-year resistance for the massive symmetrical triangle as can be seen on the monthly scale chart below.

FORMPIPE – WEEKLY SCALE

FORMPIPE – MONTHLY SCALE

ASTRAL FOODS (ARLJ.J)

ASTRAL FOODS listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange had a strong breakout during the week. Strong weekly close completed the 8 month-long rectangle chart pattern. Price target for the bullish continuation chart pattern stands at 16,000 levels. 13,750 should act as support in the following weeks.

ASTRAL FOODS – WEEKLY SCALE

NETFLIX (NFLX.O)

Following its positive earnings this week, NETFLIX completed a year-long rectangle chart pattern. Price should remain above 129.35 levels in the following weeks for the bullish interpretation to remain intact. Rectangle chart pattern price target stands at 175 levels.

NETFLIX – WEEKLY SCALE

DJIA, RUSSELL 2000, ACWI

January 14, 2017/0 Comments/in DEVELOPED MARKET EQUITIES, Uncategorized/by Aksel Kibar

This was another strong week for global equities. Both MSCI ALL COUNTRIES WORLD INDEX and MSCI EMERGING MARKETS INDEX finished the week with strong weekly candlesticks, opening at the lower end and closing at the highest level for the week.

ISHARES MSCI ALL COUNTRIES WORLD INDEX ETF (ACWI.O)

The MSCI ACWI captures large and mid cap representation across 23 developed markets and 23 emerging markets countries. With 2,486 constituents, the index covers approximately 85% of the global investable equity opportunity set. The iShares MSCI ACWI ETF seeks to track the investment results of the MSCI ACWI. The ETF is listed in the NYSE. Price chart of the iShares MSCI ACWI ETF shows the strong uptrend that started in the beginning of 2016. Year-long upward sloping trend line will act as support between 59 and 59.50 area. Until the long-term trend line is violated we should expect higher levels for the global equity benchmark.

ISHARES ACWI ETF – WEEKLY SCALE

ISHARES MSCI EMERGING MARKETS ETF (EEM)

ISHARES MSCI EMERGING MARKETS ETF had a strong week. Over the past three weeks strength in the emerging markets pushed the NYSE listed iShares MSCI EM ETF from 34 levels to 36.68 levels. Last week’s price action possibly completed a double bottom. If EEM manages to hold above 36.40 levels in the following weeks, next price target could be the September 2016 high at 38.20 levels.

ISHARES EM ETF – WEEKLY SCALE

DJIA & RUSSELL 2000 INDEX (.DJI & .RUT)

Almost everyone who follows the financial news network must have come across the 20,000 level for the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Below chart shows the significance of the 20,000 level from a technical perspective. 20,000 has now become a short-term technical resistance other than a psychological one. Similar chart development can be seen on the Russell 2000 index. Both indices formed month-long flag consolidations. For Russell 2000, the short-term resistance stands at 1,390 levels. Flags are bullish continuation chart patterns.

DJIA – DAILY SCALE

RUSSELL 2000 INDEX – DAILY SCALE

#TECHCHARTSALERT

Below are the charts that generated chart pattern breakout signals during this week.

VOLKSWAGEN AG (VOWG.DE)

VOLKSWAGEN had a strong weekly close and the stock cleared the year-long horizontal resistance at 144.50 levels. Breakout above the horizontal resistance possibly completed a year-long ascending triangle that can act as a bottom reversal. Price target for the bullish chart pattern stands at 178 levels. 144.50 should act as support.

VOLKSWAGEN – WEEKLY

SANCHEZ ENERGY CORP. (SN)

SANCHEZ ENERGY completed an 8 month-long rectangle continuation chart pattern with the strong weekly breakout. Rectangle price target stands at 13.60 levels. 9.55 should act as support.

SANCHEZ ENERGY – WEEKLY SCALE

FAURECIA (EPED.PA)

FAURECIA after its 4th test, cleared a year-long horizontal resistance and completed an ascending triangle that can act as a bottom reversal. Ascending triangle price target stands at 47 levels. 37.30 levels should act as support.

FAURECIA – WEEKLY SCALE

DUBAI FINANCIAL MARKET GENERAL INDEX (.DFMGI)

UAE’S DUBAI FINANCIAL MARKET GENERAL INDEX completed a 9 month-long rectangle chart pattern with the strong weekly close above 3,620 levels. Strong horizontal resistance was tested for 4 times over the past 9 months. Rectangle chart pattern price target stands at 4,040 levels. 3,620 levels should act as support.

DFMGI – WEEKLY SCALE

#TECHCHARTSWATCHLIST

Below are the charts that are added to the TECH CHARTS WATCHLIST.

888 HOLDINGS (888.L)

888 HOLDINGS is a provider of online gaming entertainment and solutions. The stock is listed in the UK. Price chart of the 888 HOLDINGS formed a year-long rectangle with the strong resistance standing at 233.5 levels. Stock had a strong breakout in the first quarter of 2016 and since then the price has been in a sideways consolidation. According to Edwards and Magee 3% breakout guideline, for confirmation of the breakout price should close above 240.65 levels.

888 HOLDINGS – WEEKLY SCALE

BOOKER GROUP (BOK.L)

BOOKER GROUP is a consumer non-cyclical company listed in the UK. The company offers a range of grocery, tobacco, alcoholic products and other products. Price chart of BOOKER GROUP formed a year-long ascending triangle. Strong horizontal resistance stands at 187.5 levels. The horizontal boundary was tested for 4 times over the past year. Breakout above 187.5 can push the stock to all-time high levels. A daily close above 194 levels is required for confirmation.

BOOKER GROUP – WEEKLY SCALE

CSPC PHARMA (1093.HK)

CSPC PHARMACEUTICAL GROUP is a healthcare company listed in the Hong Kong Stock exchange. Stock price formed a 2 year-long rectangle with the strong horizontal resistance standing at 8.60 levels. Latest consolidation below the upper boundary of the rectangle can be a preparation for an upward breakout. A daily close above 8.85 levels will confirm the breakout from this massive sideways consolidation. It is important to note that the breakout will push the stock to all-time high levels.

CSPC PHARMA – WEEKLY SCALE

CGI GROUP (GIB)

CGI GROUP is a technology company listed in the NYSE. Stock price formed an 8 month-long ascending triangle with the strong horizontal resistance standing at 50.20 levels. Over the past 8 months CGI GROUP tested 50-50.2 area for six times. Breakout above 50.20 levels will push the stock to all-time high levels. A daily close above 51.70 levels will confirm the breakout from the bullish continuation chart pattern.

CGI GROUP – WEEKLY SCALE

OWENS-ILLINOIS INC (OI)

OWENS ILLINOIS INC is a basic materials company listed in the NYSE. The company is engaged in the manufacturing of glass containers. Stock price of OWENS ILLINOIS formed a 7 month-long symmetrical triangle with the upper boundary standing at 19.70 levels. Symmetrical triangles are usually considered continuation chart patterns. A daily close above 20.10 levels will confirm the breakout from the symmetrical triangle.

OWENS ILLINOIS – WEEKLY SCALE

NH INVESTMENT & SECURITIES CO (005940.KS)

NH INVESTMENT & SECURITIES CO, formerly WOORI INVESTMENT & SECURITIES CO, is a Korea-based financial service provider specialized in the investment banking and securities markets. The stock price of the company formed a massive year-long complex head and shoulder bottom with the neckline standing at 10,860 levels. Strong horizontal resistance was tested for 4 times over the past year. Breakout above 10,860 can complete the long-term bottom and suggest higher prices in 2017. A daily close above 11,185 levels will confirm the breakout.

NH INVEST & SEC – WEEKLY SCALE

UK FTSE, ACWI, NETFLIX, VOLKSWAGEN

January 7, 2017/0 Comments/in DEVELOPED MARKET EQUITIES, Uncategorized/by Aksel Kibar

In the first week of the new year global equities had renewed strength. In the first half of December 2016, benchmark for the global equities, ISHARES MSCI ACWI had a strong breakout which was followed by three weeks of pullback. Price action in the first week of January pushed ISHARES MSCI ALL COUNTRIES WORLD INDEX to December 2016 highs suggesting the continuation of the uptrend in the following weeks.

ISH ACWI ETF – WEEKLY SCALE

ISHARES GLOBAL INDUSTRIALS ETF (EXI)

ISHARES GLOBAL INDUSTRIALS ETF that broke out of 2 year-long consolidation in the beginning of December 2016 and possibly completed its pullback to its horizontal support at 74.80 levels. This week’s long white candle also shows the renewed strength in the global industrial equities. EXI is an ETF listed in the NYSE.

EXI – WEEKLY SCALE

UK FTSE 100 INDEX (.FTSE)

UK FTSE 100 INDEX is setting up for a breakout to all-time high levels. Given the multi-decade long consolidation below 6,950 levels, breakout to all-time high levels above the horizontal resistance can be extremely positive for UK equities.

UK FTSE 100 – QUARTERLY SCALE

SUPERGROUP (SGP.L)

SUPERGROUP is a consumer cyclical company listed in the UK. The monthly scale long-term chart shows the strong 6 year-long horizontal resistance at 1705 levels. Strength in the UK FTSE index can result in similar breakouts in UK listed equities. Breakout to all-time highs for SUPERGROUP can be followed by multi-month uptrend.

SUPERGROUP – MONTHLY SCALE

SMITH DS (SMDS.L)

DS SMITH PLC is a basic materials company listed in the UK. The stock formed a 16 month-long H&S continuation chart pattern with the strong resistance at 425 levels. Breakout above 425 levels will push the stock to all-time highs. A daily close above 436 levels will confirm the breakout from multi-year continuation chart pattern.

DS SMITH – WEEKLY SCALE

ANDRITZ (ANDR.VI)

ANDRITZ is an industrial company listed in Austria Vienna Stock Exchange. 3 month-long rectangle chart pattern can act as a launching pattern for the year-long symmetrical triangle. Breakout from the 3 month-long rectangle can result in the completion of the year-long symmetrical triangle. A daily close above 50.50 levels will confirm the breakout from the lengthy sideways consolidation.

ANDRITZ – WEEKLY SCALE

GENMAB (GEN.CO)

GENMAB is a healthcare company listed in Denmark. Stock formed a 5 month-long rectangle with the upper boundary standing at 1300 levels. Earlier in November 2016, the stock violated the upper boundary. This was possibly a premature breakout which should be followed by the eventual confirmed breakout. A daily close above 1340 levels will confirm the breakout from the 5 month-long sideways consolidation with a possible price target of 1580 levels.

GENMAB – WEEKLY SCALE

PLASTIC OMNIUM (PLOF.PA)

PLASTIC OMNIUM is a consumer cyclical company listed in France. Stock formed a year-long rectangle with the strong horizontal resistance standing at 31 levels. Breakout above 31 levels will push the stock to all-time high levels. Breakouts from horizontal consolidation ranges to all-time high levels are usually followed by increased momentum. A daily close above 32 levels will confirm the breakout from the continuation chart pattern. Rectangle price target stands at 36.70 levels.

PLASTIC OMNIUM – WEEKLY SCALE

FORMPIPE (FPIP.ST)

FORMPIPE is a technology company listed in Sweden. Stock formed a 16 month-long ascending triangle with the strong horizontal resistance at 9.75 levels. This week’s price action violated the boundary line but the weekly close was below the resistance. A daily close above 10 levels will confirm the breakout from the bullish continuation chart pattern. Ascending triangle price target stands at 12 levels.

FORMPIPE – WEEKLY SCALE

GOLDWIND (2208.HK)

GOLDWIND is an energy company listed in Hong Kong. Stock price formed 8 month-long rectangle chart pattern with the horizontal boundary standing at 13 levels. A daily close above 13.40 levels will confirm the breakout from the continuation chart pattern. Rectangle chart pattern price target stands at 16 levels.

GOLDWIND – WEEKLY SCALE

NETFLIX (NFLX.O)

NETFLIX is a consumer non-cyclical company listed in NASDAQ. Stock formed a year-long rectangle with the horizontal resistance standing at 129.35 levels. This week’s price action was the 4th test of the horizontal boundary. Breakout from the long-term bullish continuation chart pattern can result in another strong trend period for NETFLIX. A daily close above 134 levels will confirm the breakout. Rectangle price target stands at 172 levels.

NETFLIX – WEEKLY SCALE

VOLKSWAGEN (VOWG.DE)

VOLKSWAGEN is a consumer cyclical company listed in Germany. Stock formed a year-long ascending triangle that could act as a possible trend reversal. Breakout above the horizontal boundary at 145 levels can fill the gap between 145-160 area. A daily close above 148 levels will confirm the breakout from the year-long ascending triangle. Chart pattern price target stands at 180 levels.

VOLKSWAGEN – WEEKLY SCALE

FAURECIA (EPED.PA)

FAURECIA is a consumer cyclical company listed in France. Stock formed a year-long ascending triangle that could act as a reversal. This week’s price action breached the horizontal boundary at 37.30 levels. A daily close above 38.40 levels will confirm the breakout. Chart pattern price target stands at 46.5 levels.

FAURECIA – WEEKLY SCALE

CHINA COMM CONSTRUCTION (1800.HK)

CHINA COMMUNICATIONS CONSTRUCTION is an industrial company listed in Hong Kong. Stock formed an 8 month-long symmetrical triangle continuation chart pattern. Breakout above 9.35 can complete the text book bullish continuation chart pattern with a possible price target of 12.

CHINA COMM CONS – WEEKLY SCALE

GERMANY DAX INDEX

December 7, 2016/0 Comments/in DEVELOPED MARKET EQUITIES, Uncategorized/by Aksel Kibar

GERMANY DAX INDEX – DAILY SCALE

Germany’s DAX Index breaks out of a 4 month-long rectangle chart pattern with a possible break-away gap. Tech Charts blog drew attention to the developing chart pattern in the last week of November (Germany Dax Index – 20/11/2016). Today’s price action cleared the strong 4 month-long horizontal resistance at 94.60 levels. For common stocks, Edwards and Magee in their book Technical Analysis of Stock Trends suggest that for a breakout confirmation a daily close by a 2.5%-3% margin above resistance level is required. While, this margin can be perfectly fine for stocks, for indices, commodities and currencies it could result in a delayed entry. More appropriate threshold could be a daily close by a margin of 0.5%-1% above the resistance area for indexes, commodities and currencies.

Breakout on Germany’s DAX index cleared that threshold (grey dashed line at 10,910) with a strong daily close and confirmed the breakout from the 4 month-long rectangle chart pattern. Rectangle is a continuation chart pattern. Breakout not only took place with a strong daily close but also with a possible break-away gap. Richard Schabacker in his pioneering research (Technical Analysis and Stock Market Profits) on classical charting, explains break-away gaps as follows:

Break-away gap appears at the beginning of a movement and generally comes at the completion of some definite area formation. It is seldom covered for some time in the future and, when it proceeds from a strong major bottom formation, it may never be covered, or at least not until the return of prices in the next great cycle some years later. The Break-away gap is comparatively uncommon and indicates a definite change in the technical picture…The logical conclusion is, therefore, for a continuation of that strong movement in the direction toward which the gap was made.

As a matter of fact, it is always difficult and frequently impossible to be certain whether a gap is of the Common or Break-away variety at the instant that the gap appears. This is the principal reason why we cannot place too much credence in the various gap theories and why we must consider gaps as of only secondary importance in forecasting. The fact remains that most gaps which lead decisively out of an established pattern are not closed; they become and remain true Break-away gaps. And the wider the Break-away gap at the breakout, the less likely it is to be closed.

In brief, the Break-away gap emphasizes the breakout of prices and indicates a sudden change in the technical picture, but the mere fact that prices have broken decisively out of a technical formation is of greater importance than the gap. When the evidence of the gap is added to all the other evidences of a decisive breakout, we are encouraged to act promptly and decisively.

For stock traders, I attached below the ISHARES DAX UCITS ETF that is listed in Germany. Price chart of the ETF is very similar to the index as it tracks the performance of the XETRA DAX index. The upper boundary of the rectangle was standing at 94.60. With the decisive breakout I initiated a long position with a stop-loss slightly below the boundary at 93.30 levels. Rectangle chart pattern price target is at 100 levels for the ISHARES DAX ETF. Tech Charts twitter followers can find chart pattern breakout signals under #TECHCHARTSALERT

ISHARES DAX UCITS ETF – DAILY SCALE

PORSCHE AUTO HOLDING (PSHG_p.DE)

Strength in European equities can gain momentum. A chart that is currently on my watch list is PORSCHE AUTO HLDG listed in Germany. Stock is possibly forming a year-long symmetrical triangle that could act as a bottom reversal if the price can clear strong resistance area between 49.65 and 50. A decisive close above 50.85 levels will confirm the breakout from the long-term sideways consolidation. Tech Charts twitter followers can find developing chart patterns under #TECHCHARTSWATCHLIST

PORSCHE AUT HLDG – WEEKLY SCALE

HONG KONG and CHINA

November 25, 2016/0 Comments/in DEVELOPED MARKET EQUITIES, EMERGING MARKET EQUITIES, Uncategorized/by Aksel Kibar

China and Hong Kong listed equities had a strong performance over the past week. Hang Seng index rebounded from its 200 day average and the lower boundary of its possible 8 month-long upward trend channel. China SSE Composite index resumed higher trading above its 200 day average after clearing the horizontal resistance at 3,100 levels. Both Hang Seng index and China SSE Composite index can help emerging markets to gain strength in the coming weeks.

SSE COMPOSITE INDEX weekly scale price chart

HANG SENG INDEX weekly scale price chart

A new chart pattern breakout signal is triggered with a strong weekly close on the Hong Kong listed SHUN TAK HOLDING. Price chart of the stock completed a year-long text book H&S bottom. White long candlestick on the weekly scale chart not only cleared the year-long horizontal resistance but also recorded a high volume adding to the strength of the weekly scale breakout. H&S bottom chart pattern price target stands at 3.35 levels. A stop-loss is placed at 2.70 levels, slightly below the horizontal resistance (neckline). Tech Charts twitter followers can find all past breakout signals under the hashtag #TECHCHARTSALERT

SHUN TAK HOLDING weekly scale price chart

SHUN TAK HOLDING daily scale price chart

Two stock charts are preparing for a long-term change in trend. Both names are in the Tech Charts watchlist. Breakout on these securities will trigger a chart pattern breakout signal and will be considered for possible long trades. Tech Charts twitter followers can find stocks that are in the watchlist under the hashtag #TECHCHARTSWATCHLIST China Galaxy Securities is a financial company listed in Hong Kong. The stock price is forming a year-long ascending triangle with the strong horizontal resistance standing at 8.10 levels. Breakout above 8.10 can confirm the ascending triangle as a reversal and suggest higher levels. Kingston Financial is also listed in Hong Kong. Stock price is challenging the upper boundary of a year-long symmetrical triangle. Breakout above 3.75 levels can start a new uptrend.

CGS weekly scale price chart

KINGSTON FINANCIAL weekly scale price chart

GERMANY DAX INDEX

November 20, 2016/0 Comments/in DEVELOPED MARKET EQUITIES, Uncategorized/by Aksel Kibar

Germany’s DAX Index is forming a 4 month-long rectangle chart pattern. Rectangles are classified as continuation chart patterns. Breakouts are usually in the direction of the previous trend. Since the beginning of 2016, DAX index is in a uptrend. Since mid-August the index has been in a sideways consolidation between 10,200 and 10,800. The index tested the upper boundary of the rectangle for four times over the past four months. Breakout above 10,800 will be positive and suggest higher levels. Chart pattern price target stands at 11,400 levels.

WEEKLY SCALE PRICE CHART OF DAX INDEX

DAILY SCALE PRICE CHART OF DAX INDEX

There are DAX index futures contracts and index ETFs to trade the price action on the possible breakout. Below is the price chart of the Ishares DAX UCITS ETF (in EUR) listed in Germany. It is one of the most liquid instruments that tracks the performance of the DAX 30 index. On the Ishares DAX UCITS ETF, upper boundary of the rectangle stands at 94.60 levels.

DAILY SCALE PRICE CHART OF ISHARES DAX UCITS ETF

ACWI and EEM

November 16, 2016/0 Comments/in DEVELOPED MARKET EQUITIES, EMERGING MARKET EQUITIES, Uncategorized/by Aksel Kibar

Since the election in the first week of November, U.S. equities had a strong performance. Though, strong rally in U.S. equities has been limited to very few sectors. ACWI ETF (underlying instrument: MSCI All Countries World index that tracks the performance of the 23 developed and 23 emerging markets) has been in a correction since the beginning of September. EEM ETF (underlying instrument: MSCI Emerging Markets index) broke down two major support levels, a year-long upward trend line and a horizontal support at 35.88 levels.

There is a possibility of the latest downward trend channel to form a flag continuation and breakout higher without breaching the year-long uptrend on the ACWI ETF. However, failure to do so can result in a similar price action that we have seen on the EEM; a breakdown of the year-long trend line support. Both charts suggest that equity market strength is limited to U.S. equities and in the U.S. markets it is limited to very few sectors.

ACWI ETF weekly scale price chart

ACWI ETF daily scale price chart

EEM ETF weekly scale price chart

S&P 500 INDEX and VIX

October 30, 2016/0 Comments/in DEVELOPED MARKET EQUITIES, Uncategorized/by Aksel Kibar

S&P 500 INDEX weekly scale price chart

S&P 500 index is resting on the 2 year-long support/resistance level. Breakout to all time highs in July 2016 was followed by a weak rally in July-August period. Since mid-August the index has been in a sideways consolidation. The pull-back reached the previously broken resistance at 2,120 levels. Price action in the September-October period can be identified as a descending triangle with the horizontal boundary (support) standing at 2,120 levels. Over the past two months the S&P 500 index tested the strong support for 3 times. Breakdown below 2,120 levels will signal further correction for the U.S. Equities.

CBOE Volatility index is consolidating between 13 and 17 levels. Breakdown below 2,120 on the S&P 500 index could also result in a breakout on the VIX. The level to watch on the CBOE VIX is 17.35. If S&P 500 index manages to hold above 2,120 levels, last two months sideways consolidation will be labelled as a pull back and we will expect new highs in the coming months. In that case 17-18 area should become a medium term high for the CBOE VIX.

S&P 500 INDEX daily scale price chart

CBOE VOLATILITY INDEX daily scale price chart

ENERGY and EQUITIES

October 9, 2016/0 Comments/in COMMODITIES, DEVELOPED MARKET EQUITIES, Uncategorized/by Aksel Kibar

WTI CRUDE OIL and BRENT CRUDE OIL prices are developing bullish chart patterns. Year-long inverse H&S chart patterns are close to completion. Both WTI Crude and Brent Crude are challenging their necklines. For Brent Crude oil the year-long horizontal resistance stands at $52 levels. For WTI, the neckline stands at $50 levels. Breakout above the strong resistances can push prices towards $70 levels in the following months. $70 is the possible H&S bottom price target.

WTI CRUDE OIL weekly scale price chart

BRENT CRUDE OIL weekly scale price chart

Similar bullish technical outlook can be identified on several equities in the energy sector and energy related exchange traded funds. Below are some of the equities from Tech Charts watchlist. Note: According to Edwards & Magee a breakout is confirmed when a stock records a daily close above the resistance by 3% margin. Levels on the charts below take this guideline into consideration.

OMV AG an Austria based integrated oil and gas company forms a year-long symmetrical triangle. Stock has been challenging the upper boundary of its consolidation. Breakout above 26.5 levels should generate fresh chart pattern breakout signal.

CHINA OIL & GAS Group limited is a Hong Kong based investment holding company principally engaged in natural gas and energy-related businesses. A decisive close above 0.65 will confirm breakout from year-long H&S chart pattern.

PREMIER OIL is an independent exploration and production company with oil and gas interests in the North Sea, South East Asia, Pakistan, the Falkland Islands and Latin America. The company is engaged in the business of upstream oil and gas exploration and production. Since the beginning of May 2016 the stock has been forming a rectangle (continuation) chart pattern with the boundaries between 59.75 and 80.35. A decisive close above 82.40 will confirm breakout from the 6 month-long rectangle chart pattern.

CANYON SERVICES GROUP provides stimulation and fluid management services to oil and gas exploration and production companies operating in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin. The company’s segments include Pressure Pumping Services and Fluid Management Services. Price chart of the, Toronto Stock Exchange listed Canyon Services has a text-book H&S bottom chart pattern. Year-long base formation has a horizontal resistance (neckline) at 5.87 levels. A decisive close above 6.05 will confirm breakout from the year-long H&S bottom.

HALLIBURTON COMPANY is a provider of services and products to the upstream oil and natural gas industry. Price chart of the U.S. energy stock formed an inverted triangle with the horizontal boundary standing at 46.85 levels. Over the past 4 months, the resistance was tested 3 times. Breakout above 48.30 levels will complete the multi month consolidation.

LAREDO PETROLEUM is an independent energy company focused on the acquisition, exploration and development of oil and natural gas properties, and the transportation of oil and natural gas from such properties primarily in the Permian Basin in West Texas. Price chart of Laredo Petroleum is forming a year-long H&S bottom with the neckline standing at 13.70 levels. A decisive close above 14.15 levels will confirm breakout from the bullish base formation.

HELIX ENERGY is an international offshore energy services company. The company provides services to the offshore energy industry with a focus on well intervention and robotics operations. Price chart of HELIX ENERGY formed a 5 month-long symmetrical triangle. Breakout is underway with the strong weekly close of last week’s price action.

GEOSPACE TECHNOLOGIES CORP designs and manufactures instruments and equipment used in the oil and gas industry to acquire seismic data in order to locate, characterize and monitor hydrocarbon producing reservoirs. GEOSPACE TECHNOLOGIES formed a year-long H&S bottom with the neckline standing at 19 levels. A decisive close above 20 levels will confirm breakout from the multi-month bullish chart pattern.

ISHARE GLOBAL ENERGY ETF is an exchange traded fund listed in the NYSE. The price chart of the energy ETF has a similar year-long H&S bottom with the neckline standing at 33.15 levels. A decisive close above 34.10 will confirm breakout from the multi-month base formation. The right shoulder of the H&S bottom can be identified as a rectangle with the boundaries standing at 30.50 and 33.15.

S&P 500 INDEX and MSCI ACWI

September 25, 2016/3 Comments/in DEVELOPED MARKET EQUITIES, EMERGING MARKET EQUITIES, Uncategorized/by Aksel Kibar

Over the past two weeks, global equity markets rebounded from strong support levels. Last two week’s recovery came after the S&P 500’s pull back to its long-term support level at 2,125 levels. Long-term charts of S&P 500 index and a broader representation of global equity market performance, the MSCI ALL COUNTRIES WORLD INDEX, possibly completed a re-test of the broken resistance/support levels. Once a resistance is cleared it becomes support and vice versa.

S&P 500 index, a benchmark for large cap US equities broke out of a year-long sideways consolidation in mid-July. After reaching 2,193 levels in mid-August, the index pulled back to test the broken resistance at 2,125 levels. Both the year-long upward trend line and the horizontal support held well and the index rebounded without any technical damage to the long-term trend. Unless the markets reverse once again to challenge the support at 2,125 levels, we will claim the latest price action was a pullback and is likely to be followed by a resumption of the long-term uptrend.

Monthly scale price chart of S&P 500 index

Weekly scale price chart of S&P 500 index

MSCI ALL COUNTRIES WORLD INDEX captures large and mid cap representation across 23 Developed Markets and 23 Emerging Markets countries. With 2,481 constituents, the index covers approximately 85% of the global investable equity opportunity set. Please note that iShares has an MSCI ACWI ETF that seeks to track the MSCI ALL COUNTRIES WORLD INDEX.

In mid-July MSCI ACWI, similar to S&P 500 index, completed a significant chart pattern. A year-long H&S continuation chart pattern was completed with a breakout above 410 levels. Since then the index possibly completed a pull back to the neckline of the H&S chart pattern. Last week’s sharp reversal increased the likelihood of a continuation towards 443 levels. Unless the index reverses to challenge the support at 405 levels, we will identify the latest price action as a pullback that is likely to be followed by a resumption of the long-term uptrend.

Monthly scale price chart of MSCI ACWI

Weekly scale price chart of MSCI ACWI

If global equity indices mentioned above resume their uptrends, we are likely to see fresh new highs on several individual securities. Financial media usually pays attention to 52 week highs as a measure of security’s strength. There is even a better way to look at this; all-time highs. It is usually difficult for investors to buy stocks that are reaching their all-time highs. But usually the most promising part of an uptrend starts when a stock moves into uncharted territory in other words all-time highs. Below are some of the stocks on my watch-list that are likely to breakout to all-time highs and some that are likely to record 52 week highs. These stocks formed clear bullish chart patterns with identifiable horizontal boundaries. Breakouts will not only complete the chart patterns but also will push the stocks to all time highs and 52 week highs.

U.S. & CANADA