U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

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U.S. dollar strength is here to stay. Greenback had a strong recovery last week. Strong dollar will continue to put pressure on commodities, commodity currencies and also emerging markets. In other words, weak emerging markets, commodities and strong U.S. Dollar trend is likely to continue in the following months.

After its breakout from a decade-long consolidation in the last quarter of 2014, U.S. Dollar index rallied from 85 to 100 levels. Since March 2015, price has been pulling back to the strong support at 92 levels. Last week, the dollar index tested the strong support and rebounded sharply. Latest consolidation is more like a counter trend move in the context of a short/medium-term correction. Uptrend in the U.S. Dollar remains intact and once the choppy sideways consolidation is over we can expect the continuation of the uptrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX

MAJOR U.S. DOLLAR CROSS RATES

EURUSD

USDSGD

U.S DOLLAR VS. SINGAPORE DOLLAR

USDSEK

U.S. DOLLAR VS. SWEDISH KRONA

USDNOK

U.S. DOLLAR VS. NORWEGIAN KRONE

USDCAD

U.S. DOLLAR VS. CANADIAN DOLLAR

USDJPY

U.S. DOLLAR VS. JAPANESE YEN

GBPUSD

BRITISH POUND VS. U.S. DOLLAR

NZDUSD

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR VS. U.S. DOLLAR

AUDUSD

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR VS. U.S. DOLLAR

US DOLLAR/INDIAN RUPEE

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China devalued its currency. This opened the door for further depreciation for the Chinese Yuan and also for currency wars between the Asian economies. Over the past two years emerging market currencies have performed poorly against the U.S. dollar. Weakness was mainly driven by commodity exporters. Now, strong U.S. dollar, weak emerging market currencies trend is spreading to Asia.

USDCNY

U.S. Dollar/Indian Rupee is preparing for a strong breakout from its 3 month-long consolidation range (rectangle chart pattern). On a larger scale, USD/INR formed a head and shoulder pattern. Both chart developments suggest weakness for Indian Rupee if the cross-rate clears 64.4 levels in the following days.

USDINR

Another weakening Asian currency is the Philippines Peso. Over the past two years, USD/PHP has been resilient though, following the breakout from its symmetrical triangle Peso has also started depreciating against the U.S. dollar.

USDPHP

DOW JONES TRANSPORT and UTILITIES

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I’m not a big fan of diagonal support/resistances. I like horizontal and clearly defined support/resistance levels on price charts. Especially horizontal support and resistance levels on the weekly and monthly scale charts. However, current price action and the outlook on the U.S. indices is worth mentioning. Most of the major Dow Jones indices are rebounding from trend channel supports.

Trend channel support is more reliable for the Dow Jones Utilities index as the lower boundary of the trend channel was tested several times over the past 5 years.

DOW JONES UTILITIES INDEX

 

Dow Jones Transportation index is trying to rebound from trend channel support.

DOW JONES TRANSPORTATION INDEX

 

Dow Jones Composite index which is a combination of Industrials, Transportation and Utilities is also finding support at the lower boundary of its trend channel.

DOW JONES COMPOSITE INDEX

EURO STOXX INDICES

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European indices are at critical levels. Breakout higher could result in a multi-year uptrend. Failure to clear those strong long-term resistance levels could signal the end of last 5 year’s uptrend. Whatever the outcome, the implications will be long-term.

STOXX EUROPE 50 index cleared the 15 year-long trend resistance in late 2014. EURO STOXX 50 and EURO STOXX 600 are challenging their long-term trend lines. Fresh breakouts on these two indices could add momentum to the uptrend.

EUROSTOXX 600

EUROSTOXX 50

STOXX 50 INDEX

GOLD

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Unless gold prices recover above 1,130 levels in the following weeks, probability of a sell-off towards 1,000 levels will increase. In mid-July gold price broke below the support range between 1,130-1,150. Since then the rebound has been weak and price failed to recover even above 1,110 levels. Lower boundaries are considered to be negative extremes and upper boundaries; positive extremes in terms of sentiment. If price is breaking below the lower boundary, that signals extreme weakness for the analyzed instrument. Downtrend remains intact for gold. Strong resistance stands at 1,130 levels.

GOLD

MALAYSIA KLSE COMP INDEX

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Weakness in emerging market equities can be seen across the board. From commodity exporting South American countries indices to China’s trading partners in emerging Asia, all show downtrends.

Head and shoulder top is a bearish chart pattern and usually forms after prolonged uptrends. It acts as a reversal chart pattern and successful completion could result in a multi-month downtrend. Malaysia’s KLSE Composite Index formed a 2 year-long head and shoulder top. Support remains at 1,670 levels. Decisive break (on a weekly closing basis) below 1,670 will complete the head and shoulder top and result in a downtrend towards 1,400-1,450 area.

MALAYSIA KLSE COMP INDEX

USD/CAD

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Commodity exporting countries currencies are weak against the U.S. dollar. Especially energy and metal exporters are showing significant weakness. One of those is the Canadian dollar. USD/CAD cross rate is now testing a strong resistance at 1.3040 levels. Breakout above 1.3040 levels can result in a runaway price movement to historical high levels. Though RSI, a momentum indicator, is not confirming the latest rally (more info on negative divergence on RSI). While in the short/medium-term the uptrend looks over extended, long-term traders/investors should keep a close eye on the critical resistance at 1.3040. Breakout above 1.3040 level can complete a massive multi-year base formation with a long-term price target of 1.60.

USDCAD

COPPER

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I wrote several updates on Copper. This one is another update on Copper’s strong downtrend. While it has been a volatile price movement, especially the sharp pull back towards 3 levels, copper respected all the strong technical levels. Following its pull back, industrial metal resumed its downtrend. Now price is breaking below January lows (2.40) and targeting the lower boundary of its trend channel around 2 levels. Outlook for copper is negative for the following weeks.

COPPER

VIETNAM VN INDEX

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Vietnam equities are showing strength. Massive multi-year base formation may be close to completion. Vietnam’s VN Index is testing 640 levels for the third time since 2009. Breakout above 640 will be very positive and can push the index towards 1,000-1,100 area.

VIETNAM VN INDEX

Another form of base formation can be seen on the VIETNAM Market Vector ETF that trades in NYSE (VNM). The ETF is forming a possible complex head and shoulder bottom with the strong resistance at 19.7 levels. Breakout above 19.70 will confirm the H&S bottom on VNM.

Both charts suggest following months and year can be positive for Vietnam equities. 

MKT VECTOR VIETNAM

USD/COLOMBIAN PESO

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Emerging market currencies continue to lose ground against the strong U.S. dollar. Already weak South American currencies can enter the second stage of weakness after completing major multi-year base formations.

COLOMBIAN PESO

After completing a rounding bottom between 2009 and 2014, USD/COLOMBIAN PESO, broke above 2,000 levels and rallied towards 2,600-2,700 area. Critical long-term resistance could be the neckline of a decade long double bottom chart pattern. Breakout above this area could result in further weakness in Colombian Peso with a possible price target of 3,500-4,000.