Japan, Norway, US, Turkey, Italy, France

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Here are some of the exciting charts that I shared on twitter @TechCharts. I’m attaching the twitter feeds for those who are following the blog but not twitter. More will be posted soon under the new category of Tech Trade. Tech Trade will include low volatility chart set-ups and widely followed chart patterns.

USD/ZAR & USD/IDR

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ZAR

IDR

Emerging market currencies are going through challenging times as they lose ground against the U.S. dollar. After two decades of massive depreciation against the U.S. dollar (1980-2000), most of the EM currencies stabilized and started moving sideways in a wide range. Latest sell-off pushed the cross rates to test their upper boundaries. South African Rand reached the upper boundary of its contracting range (possibly a symmetrical triangle) and Indonesian Rupiah the upper boundary of its flat consolidation range. The question now is whether the decade long consolidations will resume or will be followed by strong breakouts. These long-term charts should be on our watch-list in the following months.

COPPER

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Copper prices might be forming a medium-term base above 3 levels. 3 level acted as strong support and it was tested for 3 times over the past two years. Inverted head and shoulder chart pattern has a trend resistance (neckline) at 3.4 levels. Breakout above this level will clear the neckline and the 200 day moving average. Such technical action will be positive for Copper prices and could be the beginning of a larger-scale uptrend.

COPPER weekly

COPPER daily

INDIA BOMBAY SE SENSEX INDEX

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INDIA BOMBAY SE SENSEX INDEX

It has been a difficult month for the emerging market currencies and especially for the Indian Rupee. Sharp depreciation of the currency and rising yields have caught the attention of the mainstream media. Tech Charts frequently updated the outlook on the rupee starting from 55 levels. While the Indian currency had a sharp depreciation, equities held well and moved in the opposite direction. India’s Sensex index is now closer to its historical high levels which is a strong multi-year resistance at 21,250 levels. This level was tested in the beginning of 2008 and 2011 and held as strong resistance. Breakout above 21,250 levels will be extremely bullish for the Indian equity market. Such breakout to historical high levels occurred in the South African All Share Index back in 2012 and resulted in a sharp multi-month rally. Due to its similarity in technical action I’m posting a chart on the South Africa All Share Index. In the following weeks we should watch 21,250 levels on the Sensex.

SOUTH AFRICA ALL SHARE INDEX

USD/JPY, EUR/JPY & CHF/JPY

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Earlier during the month I’ve analyzed the Japanese yen cross rates. USD/JPY, EUR/JPY and CHF/JPY all showed weakness for the japanese yen in the coming weeks. First USD/JPY breached its resistance and cleared its consolidation range. Now we are seeing further strength in USD against the JPY followed by a similar breakout on the EUR/JPY chart.

Below are some updated charts on the Yen cross rates. Currently CHF/JPY is challenging its strong horizontal resistance at 107.5 levels.

USDJPY II

EURJPY II

CHFJPY II

USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, CHF/JPY

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Japanese yen is once again weakening against major currencies. Few days back I posted the USD/JPY chart showing the range bound price action and drew attention to a possible breakout. Yesterday USD/JPY cleared the resistance at 99 levels. Similar price action could follow in EUR/JPY and CHF/JPY as they both get ready to breakout from their four-month long consolidation ranges.

EUR/JPY continues to consolidate between 132 and 130. Breakout should follow on this pair in the following days. Unlike USD/JPY and EUR/JPY, CHF/JPY has a horizontal resistance at 107.5. As we are seeing USD/JPY breaching the trend resistance at 99 levels, other yen cross rates should follow with similar price action.

USDJPYEURJPYCHFJPY

Practice vs. Talent

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Starting from this week, I’ll share with you some interesting books, videos and articles under the category of self-development. I believe they will have a positive impact on your analysis and trading. This is an inspiring video that will challenge the way we look at talent and practice in our lives. We can become masters of what we do by constantly practicing our craft. By repeating the same task that we love over and over again we can actually develop a skill which we are not born with but we build after continuous practice. This could be trading, technical analysis any sort of art, sports or cooking. All it takes is to practice, practice and practice.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z3Hwa_ZAoCs&start=54&end=540&rel=0]

USD/TRY

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USDTRY I

USDTRY II

Since April Tech Charts frequently updated the USD/TRY analysis and drew attention to a weakening Lira against the U.S. dollar (Apr 22, May 13, May 28, Jun 20)  . Breakout above 1.83 levels was followed by a sharp rise towards 1.92 levels which was also breached on the upside after a short consolidation. Latest breakout from the flag formation on the daily chart resulted in another rally towards 2.07 levels. Since the beginning of 2013, USD/TRY has formed an upward trend channel and with the latest rally the cross rate reached the upper boundary of this steep trend channel. Technical outlook still remains negative for the lira. However we can conclude that the current technical readings are overextended and suggest a short-term stability at these levels. 1.92-1.95 area will be strong support in the short/medium-term. 1.75-1.83 area will be strong support in the long-term. 

USD/JPY

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USDJPY

In November 2012, Japanese yen started weakening against the U.S. dollar. Cross rate started rising from 77 levels and reached 104 levels in almost six months. This was a sharp rally and was followed by a lengthy consolidation. Price action is cyclical. It will have high volatility, trend periods that are followed by low volatility, trading ranges. USD/JPY is going through a quiet period (trading range) which is likely to be interrupted by another strong trend period. Over the past few months the cross rate has been consolidating in a tight range and now it is ready for a strong directional move. Breakout above 99 levels will send the USD/JPY towards 104 levels once again. Breakdown below 96 will challenge the 200 day moving average at 94.5 and possibly target lower levels. USD/JPY is on our watchlist for a possible breakout.  

WTI CRUDE OIL

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WTI CRUDE OIL

WTI CRUDE OIL II

This will be an important week for Crude oil. WTI crude oil continues to consolidate directly above the long-term symmetrical triangle. After its  breakout above $98 levels and $104 levels, WTI crude oil formed a bullish chart pattern as part of the continuing uptrend. Short-term bullish flag is signaling a pause before the uptrend resumes. WTI should clear $109 levels to target $110-$115 area, and as long as price remains above $104, we should expect higher prices in the short/medium-term. Failure to break above $109 levels could result in further sideways consolidation between $104 and $109.