I wrote several updates on Copper. This one is another update on Copper’s strong downtrend. While it has been a volatile price movement, especially the sharp pull back towards 3 levels, copper respected all the strong technical levels. Following its pull back, industrial metal resumed its downtrend. Now price is breaking below January lows (2.40) and targeting the lower boundary of its trend channel around 2 levels. Outlook for copper is negative for the following weeks.
Vietnam equities are showing strength. Massive multi-year base formation may be close to completion. Vietnam’s VN Index is testing 640 levels for the third time since 2009. Breakout above 640 will be very positive and can push the index towards 1,000-1,100 area.
Another form of base formation can be seen on the VIETNAM Market Vector ETF that trades in NYSE (VNM). The ETF is forming a possible complex head and shoulder bottom with the strong resistance at 19.7 levels. Breakout above 19.70 will confirm the H&S bottom on VNM.
Both charts suggest following months and year can be positive for Vietnam equities.
Emerging market currencies continue to lose ground against the strong U.S. dollar. Already weak South American currencies can enter the second stage of weakness after completing major multi-year base formations.
After completing a rounding bottom between 2009 and 2014, USD/COLOMBIAN PESO, broke above 2,000 levels and rallied towards 2,600-2,700 area. Critical long-term resistance could be the neckline of a decade long double bottom chart pattern. Breakout above this area could result in further weakness in Colombian Peso with a possible price target of 3,500-4,000.
I think it is time to revisit our agricultural commodity charts. Especially the latest bullish development on Wheat prices. Agricultural commodities have been weak. They are more than 50% lower from their 2008 levels. Though, a change in trend is in progress. Wheat prices tested long-term trend line support and prices have rebounded.
FUTURES (SEP 2015) – WEEKLY PRICE CHART
On the daily chart price formed an inverse head and shoulder with the short-term resistance standing at 545 levels. Breakout from this short/medium-term base formation can result in an uptrend towards 640-650 area. Both the short-term and the long-term charts suggest higher prices in the following months. A decisive break above 545 levels will confirm the inverse head & shoulder chart pattern.
FUTURES (SEP 2015) – DAILY PRICE CHART
U.S. dollar remains strong against major cross rates. U.S. dollar strength is a long-term theme and it’s here to stay in the coming months. The most vulnerable group is the emerging market currencies. We have seen significant weakness in emerging market currencies over the past year. Long-term charts suggest further weakness for the emerging market currencies.
From the EM group Indonesian Rupiah is exposed to sharp depreciation. USD/IDR is breaking out of a decade-long horizontal consolidation. Breakout from long-term chart patterns are usually followed by strong trend periods. In the last quarter of 2014, USD/IDR broke above 12,400 levels – strong resistance since 2001. As long as the cross rate remains above 12,400, we will expect higher levels in the coming months.
Agricultural commodities are testing their decade-long trend line supports and are likely to rebound in the coming months. Prices are expected to rebound from such strong trend supports and in most cases put in a medium/long-term bottom. Especially when more than one trend line overlaps around the same area, it increases the significance of that support.
Higher prices in agricultural commodities could bring back the memories of 2007 where food inflation and shortages were the main concerns of the public. Most of the agricultural commodities are back to 2006 levels. Given the significance of the long-term supports, agricultural commodities could see an increase in demand in the second half of the year.
You can find more information on these agricultural commodities by clicking the links here (CORN, WHEAT, OATS, SOYBEANS, SOYBEAN OIL).
1st month continuation CORN futures contract – WEEKLY SCALE
1st month continuation WHEAT futures contract – WEEKLY SCALE
1st month continuation OATS futures contract – WEEKLY SCALE
1st month continuation SOYBEANS futures contract – WEEKLY SCALE
1st month continuation SOYBEAN OIL futures contract – MONTHLY SCALE
Monthly scale chart of GBP/ZAR
UK election results gave boost to FTSE 100 index and British pound against major currencies. There are several GBP pairs that are preparing for strong directional movements. Out of those I like GBP/ZAR the most for two reasons. These reasons are also the major component of my trade selection process. GBP/ZAR is trying to breakout from a 15 year-long consolidation. Breakout from the long-term consolidation will push the cross rate to “uncharted territory”; in other words to all-time highs. Price reaching all-time highs has the least resistance. I prefer charts that are breaking to all-time highs.
Weekly scale chart of GBP/ZAR
Over the past one year GBP/ZAR has been consolidating in a tight consolidation range. In technical analysis the chart pattern is called rectangle. It is a continuation chart pattern. Rectangle has horizontal resistance at 18.8 levels. I prefer horizontal breakouts from minor chart patterns that also has long-term implications. Decisive break above 18.8 on a weekly closing basis, will also clear the 15 year-long trend resistance. Such price action will be positive for GBP and suggest higher levels towards 20-21 area on GBP/ZAR.
Dow Jones Composite Index measures changes within the 65 companies that make up three Dow Jones averages: the 30 stocks that form the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), the 20 stocks that make up the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and the 15 stocks of the Dow Jones Utility Average (DJUA). The Dow Jones 65 Composite, like the three sub-indexes, is price-weighted.
While there are broader measures of stock market performance for U.S. equities, this is another index that I follow as it offers some clearly identifiable chart patterns. Since the beginning of 2015, Dow Jones Composite Index has been forming a symmetrical triangle, usually regarded as a continuation chart pattern in a strong uptrend. Earlier in 2012 and 2013, Dow Jones Composite index formed other types of continuation chart patterns (rectangle & ascending triangle) and each were followed by breakouts and resumption of the uptrend.
Breakout from the year-long sideways consolidation pattern (symmetrical triangle) can result in another period of strength in U.S. equities. Strong support for the index remains between 6,100 and 6,300. Breakout above 6,500-6,600 area will complete the consolidation.
Symmetrical triangle is a reliable chart pattern. It usually forms as continuation pattern but after long down/up trend it can also reverse the prolonged trend. Converging trend lines indicate the balance of power between the buyers and sellers. Best way to trade symmetrical triangles is to wait for a decisive breakout from the tight consolidation range.
Industrial metals have been weak over the past five years. In December 2014 (earlier analysis), TIN prices formed a perfect symmetrical triangle and broke down major support resulting in a strong downtrend.
Since the beginning of 2010, ZINC price has been consolidating in a sideways trading range. Another perfect symmetrical triangle might be in progress. Breakout above 2,410 or below 2,000 levels can result in a strong trend period. ZINC chart provides long-term opportunity.
Uptrend in INDIA equities is running out of steam. Chart pattern suggests correction in the coming months if the index breaks down the 200-day exponential moving average at 27,300 levels. India BSE SENSEX index might be forming a head and shoulder top chart pattern with the neckline overlapping with the long-term average. Breakdown below a strong technical level like this could be the first warning signal of a deeper correction.
Weekly price scale
Daily price scale
Similarly USD/INR formed an inverse head and shoulder chart pattern suggesting weak Rupee if the cross rate breaks above 63.70 levels. I’m still bullish on India in the long-term (you can find earlier analysis here at the time of long-term breakout). BSE SENSEX cleared long-term horizontal resistance at 21,200 levels in 2014. I’ll view the possible weakness as a pullback to the long-term support level.
Some stocks that are showing weakness in the Index. Strong long-term trend lines are being challenged. Breakdown on these names can push the SENSEX lower.
