Thanks to the Central Banks and the decision to delay rate hikes by FED, both emerging market equities and currencies had a strong rally in March. Latest recovery in equities and currencies pulled several emerging market FX to strong support levels. Such that, these are critical inflection points worth mentioning. USD/INR (U.S. Dollar/Indian Rupee), pulled back […]
Mexico’s IPC index, denominated in local currency, is preparing for a strong breakout. During Emerging markets poor performance (2011-2016), Mexico outperformed the MSCI Emerging Markets index. Strong relative performance is also reflected on the absolute performance of the IPC index, with the national benchmark now challenging horizontal resistance for the 5th time over the past 3 years. […]
Over the past week, FED’s dovish comments resulted in U.S. dollar weakness. However U.S. dollar index started weakening in the beginning of December 2015 irrespective of FED action. Wide price fluctuation between 92 and 100 levels is likely to be a sideways consolidation. After its strong rally from 80 levels, U.S. dollar index is taking a breather. […]
As we are getting closer to eventful few weeks (thanks to Central Banks), I wanted to review some of the charts that will be important in our decision-making. For those who trust the validity of long-term trend lines; most of the global equity indices breached +7 year-long upward sloping trend lines. These are major technical […]
After reviewing the charts I posted two weeks ago on Euro Stoxx 600 and MSCI ALL COUNTRIES WORLD INDEX, I can conclude that since then there has been more technical damage on global equity indices. Until markets recover above previously broken support levels, we should watch out for further downside in the global equity markets. In other words I’ll treat […]
Long-term price chart of Natural Gas suggests that the volatile commodity is now trying to recover from historical strong support area. Over the past two decades Natural Gas (Henry Hub) prices traded as low as 1.62. There has been several instances when price reversed sharply from the strong support area between 1.62 and 1.76. Natural Gas might […]
There are discussions right now if last few week’s sell-off was another failed breakdown. Was this another bear trap? Did Central Banks again manage to put a floor to equity markets? ECB’s dovish comments and BOJ’s negative interest rate moves both came this month, after sharp sell-off in equity markets. Due to developing bearish chart […]
Oil prices are rebounding but strong resistance area remains between $32 and $40. In 2009, when oil price dipped below $40 support area, it took two months to recover back above critical level and there hasn’t been a single month of close below $40. Latest breakdown below $40 has been decisive and unless we see […]
Volatility increased in the global equity markets. Last week of January will be important as we get closer to the end of the month. Why the last week of January is important? After the sharp sell-off equities are now trying to rebound. Another week of strength will result in a “close” at the higher end of […]
2016 started with negative performance for global equities. And weak performance can continue in the coming months. Sharp sell-off in Chinese equities mainly driven by a devaluation of the Chinese yuan, resulted in a broad market weakness. Sharp price action is making the headlines as it is one of the few bad starts for the new […]
