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GLOBAL EQUITY MARKETS – September 29, 2018

REVIEW


On Tuesday we had our members webinar and we discussed symmetrical triangles. We received very positive feedback from our members. A recorded version of the webinar will be uploaded on the website for our premium members. We will inform you via e-mail when it is on the Tech Charts website. During the Q&A section one of our members brought to my attention the possibility of labeling the symmetrical triangle chart pattern on the iShares MSCI All Country World Index ETF (ACWI.O) as an ascending triangle. Ascending triangle has a bullish bias when compared with a symmetrical triangle. Given that the price respected the horizontal resistance at 74.8, I labelled the chart below with the ascending triangle interpretation. It is important to note that Global equities performance as measured by the iShares MSCI All Country World Index ETF is going through an extreme low volatility period. Usually these type of low volatility periods are followed by strong directional movement. Price for the ACWI is still trading in a tight range between 70.8 and 74.8.

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GLOBAL EQUITY MARKETS – September 22, 2018

Reminder on Live Webinar

We are continuing our Member webinar series with another classical chart pattern; the symmetrical triangle. Live Webinar and Q&A with Aksel - Tuesday, September 25, 11am mountain. You can register here (Register for the Live Webinar)


REVIEW


Global equity markets performance as measured by the iShares MSCI All Country World Index ETF (ACWI.O) made another attempt this week to break out of its multi-month long sideways consolidations. The weekly close was at the high of the weekly candlestick. This week's price action is possibly a "secondary completion" of the symmetrical triangle chart pattern. Follow through in the following week can resume uptrend towards 2018 high levels.

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GLOBAL EQUITY MARKETS – September 8, 2018

REVIEW


Strength in U.S. equities alone was not enough to push the iShares MSCI All Country World Index ETF (ACWI.O) out of its 6 month-long consolidation range. Few days of price action above the chart pattern boundary at 73.9 levels failed to materialize into a strong directional movement. The ETF continues to remain in a range between 70.6 and 73.9 levels. Strong support stands at 70.6 levels.

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GLOBAL EQUITY MARKETS – February 18, 2017

Energy prices are due for a strong directional movement after volatility reached extreme low levels. 2 month-long tight consolidation should end soon, possibly resulting in a sharp price movement. After breaking above 51.95 resistance, Brent Crude Oil entered in to a short-term sideways consolidation. Last 2 month's price action remained range bound between 52.50 and 56.10. Breakout above 56.10 will add further momentum to Brent Crude oil prices that are already in a uptrend for the past year.

BRENT CRUDE OIL - WEEKLY SCALE

BRENT CRUDE OIL - WEEKLY SCALE

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ENERGY and EQUITIES

WTI CRUDE OIL and BRENT CRUDE OIL prices are developing bullish chart patterns. Year-long inverse H&S chart patterns are close to completion. Both WTI Crude and Brent Crude are challenging their necklines. For Brent Crude oil the year-long horizontal resistance stands at $52 levels. For WTI, the neckline stands at $50 levels. Breakout above the strong resistances can push prices towards $70 levels in the following months. $70 is the possible H&S bottom price target.

WTI CRUDE OIL weekly scale price chart

WTI CRUDE OIL weekly scale price chart

BRENT CRUDE OIL weekly scale price chart

BRENT CRUDE OIL weekly scale price chart

Similar bullish technical outlook can be identified on several equities in the energy sector and energy related exchange traded funds. Below are some of the equities from Tech Charts watchlist. Note: According to Edwards & Magee a breakout is confirmed when a stock records a daily close above the resistance by 3% margin. Levels on the charts below take this guideline into consideration.

OMV AG an Austria based integrated oil and gas company forms a year-long symmetrical triangle. Stock has been challenging the upper boundary of its consolidation. Breakout above 26.5 levels should generate fresh chart pattern breakout signal.

omv-ag

CHINA OIL & GAS Group limited is a Hong Kong based investment holding company principally engaged in natural gas and energy-related businesses. A decisive close above 0.65 will confirm breakout from year-long H&S chart pattern.

china-oil-gas

PREMIER OIL is an independent exploration and production company with oil and gas interests in the North Sea, South East Asia, Pakistan, the Falkland Islands and Latin America. The company is engaged in the business of upstream oil and gas exploration and production. Since the beginning of May 2016 the stock has been forming a rectangle (continuation) chart pattern with the boundaries between 59.75 and 80.35. A decisive close above 82.40 will confirm breakout from the 6 month-long rectangle chart pattern.

premier-oil

CANYON SERVICES GROUP provides stimulation and fluid management services to oil and gas exploration and production companies operating in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin. The company’s segments include Pressure Pumping Services and Fluid Management Services. Price chart of the, Toronto Stock Exchange listed Canyon Services has a text-book H&S bottom chart pattern. Year-long base formation has a horizontal resistance (neckline) at 5.87 levels. A decisive close above 6.05 will confirm breakout from the year-long H&S bottom.

canyon-services

HALLIBURTON COMPANY is a provider of services and products to the upstream oil and natural gas industry. Price chart of the U.S. energy stock formed an inverted triangle with the horizontal boundary standing at 46.85 levels. Over the past 4 months, the resistance was tested 3 times. Breakout above 48.30 levels will complete the multi month consolidation.

halliburton

LAREDO PETROLEUM is an independent energy company focused on the acquisition, exploration and development of oil and natural gas properties, and the transportation of oil and natural gas from such properties primarily in the Permian Basin in West Texas. Price chart of Laredo Petroleum is forming a year-long H&S bottom with the neckline standing at 13.70 levels. A decisive close above 14.15 levels will confirm breakout from the bullish base formation.

laredo-petr

HELIX ENERGY is an international offshore energy services company. The company provides services to the offshore energy industry with a focus on well intervention and robotics operations. Price chart of HELIX ENERGY formed a 5 month-long symmetrical triangle. Breakout is underway with the strong weekly close of last week’s price action.

helix-energy

GEOSPACE TECHNOLOGIES CORP designs and manufactures instruments and equipment used in the oil and gas industry to acquire seismic data in order to locate, characterize and monitor hydrocarbon producing reservoirs. GEOSPACE TECHNOLOGIES formed a year-long H&S bottom with the neckline standing at 19 levels. A decisive close above 20 levels will confirm breakout from the multi-month bullish chart pattern.

geospace-techn

ISHARE GLOBAL ENERGY ETF is an exchange traded fund listed in the NYSE. The price chart of the energy ETF has a similar year-long H&S bottom with the neckline standing at 33.15 levels. A decisive close above 34.10 will confirm breakout from the multi-month base formation. The right shoulder of the H&S bottom can be identified as a rectangle with the boundaries standing at 30.50 and 33.15.

ishares-glob-energy

BRENT CRUDE OIL

While you are reading this post please note that I’m not basing my decision-making and my analysis on the latest developments in middle east. I’ve been analyzing Brent crude and the energy sector for some time. Earlier analysis (May 17, 2014 / Mar 29, 2014 / Mar 3, 2014) suggested a strong directional move that is likely to develop. Low volatility periods are usually followed by high volatility and vice versa. Brent Crude oil and energy sector has been consolidating for more than 2 years in a very tight range. This resulted in a historical low volatility. In other words “calm before the storm”. Breakouts from these type of low volatility trading ranges are usually very powerful. This was the basic assumption that I based my analysis on. Latest developments in the middle east can be a trigger for higher prices (still to be seen). Rather than focusing on the short-term news effect I would like to draw your attention to the larger scale breakout that can take place in the energy sector. As I have mentioned in my earlier updates, energy sector is likely to be the hot topic in the second half of the year.

 

BNO

ETFS BRENT

BRENT CRUDE OIL

BRENT CRUDE OIL

Over the past few months I wrote several updates on Brent Crude Oil . I think energy sector will be the “hot” topic in the second half of the year. The likelihood of a strong breakout is increasing as the consolidation resumes in this tight trading range. Breakouts from low volatility periods are usually very powerful.  United States Brent Oil ETF (BNO) trades in NYSE (New York Stock Exchange) and ETFS Brent (OILB.L) trades in LSE (London Stock Exchange). Both charts are due for a strong breakout. Breakout above 45 levels on (BNO) and above 73 levels on (OILB.L) will be very bullish for the energy sector. Another chart that is likely to follow the same trend in the energy sector is BP (BP.L). BP trades in LSE. Breakout above the strong horizontal resistance at 510 levels will be bullish for the stock.  These are the charts and levels that I’m watching closely to understand what is next for the energy sector.

What is your view on this? Are there any other supporting factors/developments that suggests a strong directional move any time soon? You can share your views with other followers.

BNO

ETFS BRENT

BP

BRENT CRUDE OIL

Oil prepares for a massive breakout in the following weeks/months. Magnitude of the price change is likely to make the oil “the hot topic” in the financial media. Why am I saying this?

1) Breakouts from low volatility periods are usually very powerful and are followed by strong directional moves. United States Brent Oil ETF (BNO) and ETFS Oil Securities (OILB.L) both meet this criteria.

2) The longer price tests a trend resistance the more valid that level becomes. 45 levels on the BNO and 73 levels on the ETFS Brent are strong horizontal resistances. They are valid trend lines.

While it is still early to call for a direction, I would suggest everyone should place these two charts at the top of their watch list. A strong directional move is overdue.

BNO

ETFS BRENT II

BRENT CRUDE and PALLADIUM

Strong breakouts are likely on these two commodities in the following weeks. Both Brent Crude oil and Palladium reached multi-year low volatility levels. Volatility is cyclical. Low volatility periods are usually followed by high volatility and vice versa. Charts below show Brent Crude Oil ETF trading in London and Palladium cash price. Breakout above 73 levels on ETFS Brent and also above 767 levels on Palladium will be followed by strong trend periods. We should monitor these two commodities closely in the following weeks.

ETFS BRENT

PALLADIUM