Cup and Handle – Bullish Continuation
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GLOBAL EQUITY MARKETS – May 20, 2017
The Russell 2000 Index is the recognized benchmark measuring the performance of the small-cap segment of the U.S. equity universe. The Russell 2000 Index is a subset of the Russell 3000 Index, representing approximately 10% of the total market capitalization of that index. It includes 2000 of the smallest securities based on a combination of market cap and current index membership. The index is maintained by FTSE Russell, a subsidiary of the London Stock Exchange Group. The Russell 2000 is by far the most common benchmark for mutual funds that identify themselves as “small-cap”, while the S&P 500 index is used primarily for large capitalization stocks.
RUSSELL 2000 INDEX (.RUT)
Since the beginning of 2017, the small-cap segment of the U.S. equities had a volatile price action. The swings on the Russell 2000 index possibly formed a very rare chart pattern called a Broadening Top. Richard W. Schabacker in his book Technical Analysis and Stock Market Profits explains the Broadening Top chart pattern as below:
Video Tutorial – Long Term Charts
Long Term Charts – Video Tutorial
Richard W. Schabacker discussed the importance of chart patterns in the averages, in his book Technical Analysis and Stock Market Profits. He concluded that if many individual issues were to make strong Head and Shoulders formations at exactly the same time, the average chart would, obviously, show a similar Head and Shoulders. However, since the many different stocks do not, as a rule, make their ‘‘peaks and valleys’’ on precisely the same days, the average chart is likely to show a less specialized and distinct pattern. We should, for this reason, expect the averages to show Common or Rounding Turns more often than do the charts of individual issues at times of important reversals.
Most stocks sooner or later will follow the major swings of the market. Individual stocks in a sector or industry group might form similar chart patterns due to economic cycles or sector rotation. These individual stocks can be affected by other factors such as commodity prices.
One should stay alert and start anticipating a major shift in the direction of the trend after finding similar chart patterns developing in a specific sector or industry group. It is important to note that these chart patterns are usually well-defined on the individual stocks when compared with the chart patterns on the averages.
The video tutorial discusses what can be next for the European banks by giving examples from the two major trading themes in energy sector equities and mining companies.
Video Tutorial – Long Term Charts
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Long Term Charts – Video Tutorial
Richard W. Schabacker discussed the importance of chart patterns in the averages, in his book Technical Analysis and Stock Market Profits. He concluded that if many individual issues were to make strong Head and Shoulders formations at exactly the same time, the average chart would, obviously, show a similar Head and Shoulders. However, since the many different stocks do not, as a rule, make their ‘‘peaks and valleys’’ on precisely the same days, the average chart is likely to show a less specialized and distinct pattern. We should, for this reason, expect the averages to show Common or Rounding Turns more often than do the charts of individual issues at times of important reversals.
Most stocks sooner or later will follow the major swings of the market. Individual stocks in a sector or industry group might form similar chart patterns due to economic cycles or sector rotation. These individual stocks can be affected by other factors such as commodity prices.
One should stay alert and start anticipating a major shift in the direction of the trend after finding similar chart patterns developing in a specific sector or industry group. It is important to note that these chart patterns are usually well-defined on the individual stocks when compared with the chart patterns on the averages.
The video tutorial discusses what can be next for the European banks by giving examples from the two major trading themes in energy sector equities and mining companies.
GLOBAL EQUITY MARKETS – May 13, 2017
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It has been a strong week for equities in emerging Asia and also a strong start for the month of May. South Korea KOSPI index is breaking out to all-time highs by clearing its 6 year-long horizontal resistance at 2,210 levels. The index possibly formed a multi-year long bullish ascending triangle. A strong monthly close will signal positive performance for the coming months. The ascending triangle chart pattern price target stands at 2,750 levels. Emerging Asia is a big component in the MSCI Emerging Markets index. As of May 11, 2017 the top 3 counties in the index are China (26.92%), S.Korea (15.34%) and Taiwan (12.20%).
While the local currency stock market index South Korea KOSPI is breaking out to all-time highs, the U.S. Dollar denominated MSCI S.KOREA price index is few percentage points away from reaching new all-time high levels. The price action is clearly positive. The 9 year-long downward sloping trend line is standing at 460 levels. MSCI S.KOREA index is trying to break out of its multi-year sideways consolidation range.
GLOBAL EQUITY MARKETS – May 13, 2017
It has been a strong week for equities in emerging Asia and also a strong start for the month of May. South Korea KOSPI index is breaking out to all-time highs by clearing its 6 year-long horizontal resistance at 2,210 levels. The index possibly formed a multi-year long bullish ascending triangle. A strong monthly close will signal positive performance for the coming months. The ascending triangle chart pattern price target stands at 2,750 levels. Emerging Asia is a big component in the MSCI Emerging Markets index. As of May 11, 2017 the top 3 counties in the index are China (26.92%), S.Korea (15.34%) and Taiwan (12.20%).
While the local currency stock market index South Korea KOSPI is breaking out to all-time highs, the U.S. Dollar denominated MSCI S.KOREA price index is few percentage points away from reaching new all-time high levels. The price action is clearly positive. The 9 year-long downward sloping trend line is standing at 460 levels. MSCI S.KOREA index is trying to break out of its multi-year sideways consolidation range.
GLOBAL EQUITY MARKETS – May 6, 2017
All eyes will be on the French election this weekend. The two candidates will face off in the second round on May 7. European equities have been strong since the first round election results. Two benchmark indices on Euro Stoxx 50 and Euro Stoxx 600 can put the European equity performance into perspective. Both charts show that uptrends have been intact for some time. Euro Stoxx 50 index broke out of its multi-month base in December 2016 and now very close to reaching its possible price target around 3,285 levels. The price target for the Euro Stoxx 50 Index is calculated by taking the width of the multi-month consolidation and adding it to the breakout point. 3,285-3,300 area is also the upper boundary of the parallel trend channel. On the other hand Euro Stoxx 600 Index is very close to its multi-year strong horizontal resistance at 400 levels. Both indices will face strong technical resistance in the following trading days/weeks. Performance around these strong technical resistance will shed more light on the long-term direction of the European equity performance.
GLOBAL EQUITY MARKETS – May 6, 2017
All eyes will be on the French election this weekend. The two candidates will face off in the second round on May 7. European equities have been strong since the first round election results. Two benchmark indices on Euro Stoxx 50 and Euro Stoxx 600 can put the European equity performance into perspective. Both charts show that uptrends have been intact for some time. Euro Stoxx 50 index broke out of its multi-month base in December 2016 and now very close to reaching its possible price target around 3,285 levels. The price target for the Euro Stoxx 50 Index is calculated by taking the width of the multi-month consolidation and adding it to the breakout point. 3,285-3,300 area is also the upper boundary of the parallel trend channel. On the other hand Euro Stoxx 600 Index is very close to its multi-year strong horizontal resistance at 400 levels. Both indices will face strong technical resistance in the following trading days/weeks. Performance around these strong technical resistance will shed more light on the long-term direction of the European equity performance.
GLOBAL EQUITY MARKETS – April 29, 2017
The first round of the 2017 French presidential election was held on 23 April 2017. As no candidate won a majority, a run-off election between the top two candidates, Emmanuel Macron of En Marche! and Marine Le Pen of the National Front (FN), will be held on 7 May 2017. Global equity markets reacted positively after centrist candidate Emmanuel Macron won the first round of the weekend’s French presidential election. European equities have been performing poorly since the beginning of the global financial crash in 2008. Any positive political and economic development is likely to help European equities to catch up in the relative performance. Though, European equities might need more catalyst than an election result to reverse long-term relationships.
Two charts below show the massive under performance of the European equities vs. the U.S. equities over the past 9 years. Both the relative performance ratio between MSCI EUROPE vs. MSCI U.S. and EUROSTOXX 600 Index vs. S&P 500 Index shows a multi-year downtrend. This long-term relationship is something that we should keep a close eye on, as any major turnaround in European indices performance will result in more breakout opportunities in the European equities.
Relative performance ratio between the two indices is converted into an index to better visualize the change in value in percentage terms. 1.00 is an index value of 100. 0.42 is an index value of 42. The chart shows the index losing more than half of its value from the highest level in 2008. In other words MSCI EUROPE underperformed MSCI USA by 58% over the past 9 years. Data used for MSCI EUROPE and MSCI USA are price index in U.S. Dollar.
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