Mexico IPC index is possibly preparing for a strong breakout to all-time high levels. Over the past three years, the IPC index tested the strong horizontal resistance for the 5th time. Since the beginning of April, price held close to the upper boundary. Last two months sideways consolidation can be a symmetrical triangle and a preparation […]
Once again emerging market currencies started weakening against the U.S. Dollar. Earlier update analyzed the Turkish Lira, South African Rand and Mexican Peso. In this blog post I review the existing uptrend on USD/CNY. U.S. Dollar/Chinese Yuan is reversing from a critical support level. Since the second half of 2015, USD/CNY has been recording higher […]
Euro Stoxx 50 index is either offering a rare buying opportunity similar to 2011 or one last chance for the bulls to exit before the downtrend resumes. The bearish case suggests that the Euro Stoxx 50 index peaked in April 2015 after completing a 2 year-long head and shoulder top which was followed by the breakdown of […]
This could be a critical day for most of the emerging market currencies against the U.S. dollar. USD/TRY, EUR/TRY, USD/ZAR and USD/MXN are few cross rates worth mentioning in this update. USD/TRY is possibly completing a rectangle chart pattern. The lower boundary of the year-long consolidation formed support between 2.75 and 2.80. A strong weekly close […]
Poor man’s gold might be setting up for a strong performance in the metal complex. SILVER/GOLD ratio is reversing from a historical support area. This level acted as a medium/long-term turning point for the ratio in 1997, 2003 and in 2008. Not only the relative performance of Silver is showing strength but also the price […]
Thanks to the Central Banks and the decision to delay rate hikes by FED, both emerging market equities and currencies had a strong rally in March. Latest recovery in equities and currencies pulled several emerging market FX to strong support levels. Such that, these are critical inflection points worth mentioning. USD/INR (U.S. Dollar/Indian Rupee), pulled back […]
Mexico’s IPC index, denominated in local currency, is preparing for a strong breakout. During Emerging markets poor performance (2011-2016), Mexico outperformed the MSCI Emerging Markets index. Strong relative performance is also reflected on the absolute performance of the IPC index, with the national benchmark now challenging horizontal resistance for the 5th time over the past 3 years. […]
Over the past week, FED’s dovish comments resulted in U.S. dollar weakness. However U.S. dollar index started weakening in the beginning of December 2015 irrespective of FED action. Wide price fluctuation between 92 and 100 levels is likely to be a sideways consolidation. After its strong rally from 80 levels, U.S. dollar index is taking a breather. […]
As we are getting closer to eventful few weeks (thanks to Central Banks), I wanted to review some of the charts that will be important in our decision-making. For those who trust the validity of long-term trend lines; most of the global equity indices breached +7 year-long upward sloping trend lines. These are major technical […]
After reviewing the charts I posted two weeks ago on Euro Stoxx 600 and MSCI ALL COUNTRIES WORLD INDEX, I can conclude that since then there has been more technical damage on global equity indices. Until markets recover above previously broken support levels, we should watch out for further downside in the global equity markets. In other words I’ll treat […]
