EUROSTOXX 600, MSCI ACWI and MSCI EM

As we are getting closer to eventful few weeks (thanks to Central Banks), I wanted to review some of the charts that will be important in our decision-making.

For those who trust the validity of long-term trend lines; most of the global equity indices breached +7 year-long upward sloping trend lines. These are major technical breakdowns, not minor violations.

Last few week’s counter-trend moves didn’t reverse the negative technical outlook on the long-term charts. Indices continue to make lower lows and lower highs and breaking down previous reaction low levels.

8-10% rallies can take place in bear markets. For reference I plotted the line chart of the MSCI ALL COUNTRIES WORLD INDEX. Major bear markets over the past two decades show counter-trend moves exceeding 8% in price appreciation. In fact during 2001-2002 bear market MSCI ACWI rebounded from 203 levels to 245 levels, a 20% rally, followed by another 35% drop.

Wide price swings and of course mood swings are characteristics of market correction. Since the beginning of the correction in mid-2015, there has been two counter trend price movements. One has taken the index from 383 levels to 413 levels (7.8%) during September-November 2015 and the other one is ongoing. So far the reaction resulted in 8.8% appreciation from the low of 356 levels.

MSCI ALL COUNTRIES WORLD INDEX

Line price chart of MSCI ALL COUNTRIES WORLD INDEX with linear scale

EUROSTOXX 600 INDEX

Line price chart of EUROSTOXX 600 Index on semi-log scale

MSCI EM

Line price chart of MSCI EMERGING MARKETS INDEX on semi-log scale