GLOBAL EQUITY MARKETS – May 5, 2018
Note on Dubai Traders Seminar:
Several Tech Charts members asked if the Dubai Traders Seminar presentation will be recorded and made available on Tech Charts website. Unfortunately the seminar was not recorded by the organizer. However, I will make this presentation available to our members via short educational videos in the following days/weeks. Each part of the presentation will address specific chart pattern examples presented in separate videos and will be archived under Educational Videos.
REVIEW
Global equity markets is getting closer to a strong directional movement. Tight consolidations on both the iShares MSCI All Country World Index ETF and the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index ETF suggest breakouts can result in a trend period. Consolidations are followed by trends and vice versa. Both ACWI and EEM are trading above their long-term moving averages and inside the boundaries of multi-month long uptrend channels. Breakdown below the long-term averages and the lower boundary of trend channels can result in a larger scale correction. At this point, with the current available information, we can conclude that the long-term uptrend is still intact. We are very close to the completion of last quarter's tight consolidation.
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Doji form when a security's open and close are virtually equal. The length of the upper and lower shadows can vary and the resulting candlestick looks like a cross, inverted cross or plus sign. Alone, doji are neutral patterns. Any bullish or bearish bias is based on preceding price action and future confirmation. Doji convey a sense of indecision or tug-of-war between buyers and sellers. Prices move above and below the opening level during the session, but close at or near the opening level. The result is a standoff. The relevance of a doji depends on the preceding trend or preceding candlesticks. After an advance, or long white candlestick, a doji signals that the buying pressure is starting to weaken. After a decline, or long black candlestick, a doji signals that selling pressure is starting to diminish. Doji indicate that the forces of supply and demand are becoming more evenly matched and a change in trend may be near. Doji alone are not enough to mark a reversal and further confirmation may be warranted.
The Hammer and Hanging Man look exactly alike, but have different implications based on the preceding price action. Both have small real bodies (black or white), long lower shadows and short or non-existent upper shadows. As with most single and double candlestick formations, the Hammer and Hanging Man require confirmation before action.
I really enjoyed our conversation with Caroline Stephen, the host of Talking Trading. We discussed Technical Analysis, Classical Charting and my charting and trading experience in the Middle East & North Africa markets.
Indecision. Jury is still out. This week's price action is best explained with the help of candlestick patterns definitions. Spinning top is a candlestick with a long upper shadow, long lower shadow, and small real body. One long shadow represents a reversal of sorts; spinning tops represent indecision. The small real body (whether hollow or filled) shows little movement from open to close, and the shadows indicate that both bulls and bears were active during the session. Even though the week opened and closed with little change, prices moved significantly higher and lower in the meantime. Neither buyers nor sellers could gain the upper hand and the result was a standoff. After a long advance or long white candlestick, a spinning top indicates weakness among the bulls and a potential change or interruption in trend. After a long decline (I think this is what we experienced over the past 3 weeks) or long black candlestick, a spinning top indicates weakness among the bears and a potential change or interruption in trend.
