NIKKEI, STOXX and FTSE

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It is the time to take a more defensive stance in the global equity markets. MSCI All Countries World Index which includes the performance of developed and emerging markets, found resistance at 430 levels and reversed. MACD, a momentum indicator is generating a sell signal on the monthly scale chart. These are all bearish signals.

MSCI ALL COUNTRIES WORLD INDEX

STOXX 50 index found resistance at 14 year-long trend line at 3,100 levels. It needed a lot of momentum to clear such hurdle and it looks like the European equity benchmark failed to clear the strong multi-year resistance. Strong resistance remains at 3,100 levels.

STOXX 50 INDEX

Japan’s NIKKEI 225 index failed to clear 16,500 levels, another multi-year resistance. Index can pull back to its 2 year-long average at 14,000 levels. For now the market doesn’t have the strength to clear the strong long-term resistance.

NIKKEI 225 INDEX

UK’s FTSE 100 index reversed from strong multi-year resistance at 6,880 levels. The index failed to breakout to all-time high levels. Resistance remains at 6,880. Breakdown below the 2 year-long average at 6,400 levels can send the index towards 6,000 levels.

UK FTSE 100 INDEX

COPPER

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Industrial metals continue to remain weak. Charts warn of a slowdown in global growth. Copper, usually regarded as Dr. Copper due to its leading indicator role for economic growth, is warning us of a possible breakdown and a correction.

Chart patterns are result of human interaction. Forces of greed and fear meet in the market place and form identifiable patterns on price charts. Descending triangle is one of the common bearish chart pattern. Horizontal support line shows the level where buyers step in. Downward sloping trend line shows the supply (resistance).

COPPER

Copper price formed a descending triangle over the past 3 years. Strong support remains at 3 levels. Breakdown below 3 levels can result in a sharp decline towards 2-2.5 range. Latest consolidation should resolve in one direction in the following weeks/month.

COPPER 2014

Copper had a similar descending triangle during 1989-1993 period. 4 year-year long chart pattern resolved on the downside with the breakdown of 0.95 support level in 1993. In less than six months prices have dropped to 0.72 levels.

COPPER 1990

DAX and RUSSELL 2000

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Both DAX and Russell 2000 indices formed bearish chart patterns. These are developing chart patterns. In other words we still need to see confirmation. DAX is possibly forming a head and shoulder top. Neckline (support) is at 8,900 levels. Decisive breakdown below 8,900 will confirm the year-long top formation on Germany’s DAX index. Head and shoulder tops are bearish chart patterns.

DAX INDEX

Russell 2000 index might be forming a complex double top. 1,080 is a critical level for the index. Decisive breakdown below 1,080 levels will confirm the year-long top formation. These two charts should be on our watch list in the following weeks/month.

RUSSELL 2000 INDEX

LUMBER

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Lumber prices prepare for a strong breakout from a 2 year-long consolidation. Since the beginning of 2013, prices have been consolidating in a contracting range with the boundaries now standing at 360 and 300 levels. Latest rally towards the upper boundary suggests prices are likely to challenge the strong resistance in the following days/week. A decisive breakout above 360 levels will be positive and will target 400 levels in the short/medium-term.

LUMBER II

REAL, RUBLE and RUPEE

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Here are some of the emerging market currencies that I see vulnerable against the U.S. dollar in the medium/long-term. U.S. dollar had a strong rally against major cross rates and most of the emerging market currencies. In the short-term we might be due for a pull-back and some weakness for the U.S. dollar but in the medium/long-term we should keep a close eye on these EM currencies.

Brazilian real is weakening towards 2.45 levels. Last one years’ move formed a sideways consolidation. Breakout above 2.45 will be negative for BRL.

USDBRL

I drew attention to the earlier breakout on the Peruvian Nuevo Sol. This was a nice ascending triangle with the resistance at 2.82. Resistance becomes the new support.

USDPEN

Indonesian Rupiah is forming a consolidation right below the decade-long horizontal resistance. Breakout above 12,400 will cause long-term damage on this cross-rate.

USDIDR

Indian Rupee  held above the 3 year-long trend line. This shows that the uptrend is still intact. Unless we see USD/INR establishing a move below its 200-day average, I would favor USD against the Indian Rupee.

USDINR

Russian Ruble continues its slide against the U.S. dollar. Resistance at 36.50 became support. Unless price falls below 36.50, this chart is poised for higher levels.

USDRUB

UK FTSE 100 INDEX

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Scotland will remain part of United Kingdom following historic referendum vote. What is next for the financial markets? Over the past few weeks we have seen increased volatility in the currency markets. GBP/USD cross rate fell from 1.68 levels to 1.60. It is now rebounding back to 1.645 levels. For the equity markets we can’t say the same. It’s been relatively quiet. UK FTSE 100 index remained below the historical high levels at 6,880. This is a 15 year-long resistance and I believe breakout to all-time high levels will be very positive. Below I shared two charts on the UK FTSE 100 index. A monthly chart that covers the last 25 years and a daily chart that shows the last 2 years consolidation. Over the past 2 years there has been 6 to 7 attempts to clear the  resistance at 6,880 levels. None of them were successful. Both the long-term and the short-term chart suggests a breakout above 6,880 should be powerful and push UK FTSE 100 index higher in the coming months.

UK FTSE 100 INDEX II

Monthly scale chart of UK FTSE 100 index

UK FTSE 100 INDEX III

Daily scale chart of UK FTSE 100 index

JPY/SGD

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Long-term opportunities don’t often come along. So when they do it’s worth paying attention to these developments. In the beginning of 2014, AUD/NZD cross-rate was finding support at a multi-decade horizontal trend line. Base formation took more than 5 months to develop. I sent out two updates one in (April 30,2014) and one in (June 4, 2014) drawing attention to a major low. Similar technical chart development is now presenting itself on the JPY/SGD. Cross-rate is reaching a multi-decade support area between 1.15-1.17. This could be a major low for the JPY/SGD. Though, it is important to note that base formation could take several months.

JPYSGD

AUDNZD

STOXX 50, NIKKEI and FTSE 100

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Global equity markets are at a critical juncture. Most of the major equity benchmarks are testing multi-year trend resistances. These are decade-long trend lines and if they are broken on the upside, it will signal further equity market strength for coming years.

STOXX 50 (includes UK companies), an equity benchmark for Europe, is testing 14 year-long trend resistance at 3,100 levels. While breakout would require a significant amount of energy (either positive news flow or expectation of positive economic outlook in the Euro zone), such price action (a decisive break above 3,100) will be extremely bullish for the European equities.

STOXX 50 INDEX

Japan’s Nikkei 225 index is testing a 20 year-long trend resistance at 16,500 levels. Decisive break above the strong multi-decade resistance will be extremely positive for the Japanese equities.

NIKKEI 225 INDEX

UK’s FTSE 100 index is now challenging historical high levels at 6,860. Breakout above the multi-decade horizontal resistance will also be a bullish signal for the global equity markets.

UK FTSE 100 INDEX

Last but not least, MSCI ALL COUNTRIES WORLD INDEX, which is a broad representation of global equity market performance is challenging historical high levels.

MSCI ALL COUNTRIES WORLD INDEX

HANG SENG INDEX

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Over the past 4 years, China has been an under-performer. Chinese equity market has clearly lagged the global recovery. Though, poor performance can end soon. Several Chinese companies are listed in Hong Kong and the Hang Seng Index is ready to breakout from a flat range. Hang Seng index is pushing above strong resistance area between 24,000-25,000. Next price target could be the upper boundary of the trend channel at 28,000 levels.

HONG KONG HANG SENG INDEX

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

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Dollar is gaining strength against major currencies. Recent breakout on the U.S. dollar index confirms this. Other than Euro and Japanese yen weakness we are also seeing depreciation in emerging market currencies. Combined weakening effect of the developed and emerging market currencies resulted in a sharp price movement on the U.S. dollar index. Latest breakout above 81.60 completed a “double bottom” chart pattern with a price target of 84-85 area for the coming weeks. Price should remain above 81.60 levels for the dollar strength to resume in the medium-term. 81.60 becomes the new support level.

US DOLLAR INDEX

Some exciting chart developments are taking place in the emerging market currencies. Peruvian Nuevo Sol; local currency of Peru is losing strength against the U.S. dollar. Latest chart development – ascending triangle on the weekly scale – is bullish for the dollar and suggests further depreciation of the Peruvian Nuevo Sol. Breakout above 2.82 levels will confirm the bearish case for PEN.

USDPEN

Another currency pair that is at the edge of a breakout is the Russian Ruble. Since the beginning of 2009 USD/RUB tested 36.50 for the third time. Breakout above 36.50 will be negative for the Russian currency. It is important to note that 36.50 is the historical high for the USD/RUB.

USDRUB