U.S. unemployment rate jumped to 8.2% in May. U.S. Employers added 69,000 jobs, fewer than forecast. If you remember from the earlier posts I’ve analyzed the unemployment rate with technical indicators and applied moving average crossovers to see the changes in trend on this time series. Study showed improving job market followed by bullish cross-over on the 1 […]
Back in January and February I analyzed Coffee price and posted long and medium term charts. A that time Coffee had tested its long-term trend resistance at 280 levels for the 4th time and it was trading slightly below its 200 day moving average at 240 levels. Coffee had a perfect parallel trend channel and the target for […]
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Lately I’ve been focusing more frequently on the currency markets and especially on crossrates against the U.S. dollar. Several developed and emerging market currencies are forming major reversal patterns (inverted Head & Shoulder) that is bullish for the dollar in the short/medium-term. http://techcharts.wordpress.com/2012/01/22/u-s-dollar-index-eurusd/ (January) http://techcharts.wordpress.com/2012/02/11/u-s-dollar-index-eurusd-2/ (February) Inverted H&S pattern is a widely followed technical chart formation and has a very low failure rate. As […]
While global equity markets and commodities are experiencing sharp corrections, an underperforming commodity in the grains complex, wheat started breaking out of its range. Latest technical action is similar to the earlier breakout that wheat experienced in the summer of 2010. In July-August period it took 4 weeks for wheat prices to rally 60% after the breakout. Wheat is […]
USD/TL chart tells us 1.75-1.76 is strong support and unless broken on the downside dollar will continue to stay strong against Turkish Lira. Over the past week, USD/TL rebounded from 1.75 for the third time in the past 7 months. 1.75-1.76 area is long-term horizontal support and also a strong support level for the 200 day […]
U.S. dollar continues to gain strength against emerging market currencies. I’ve analyzed several bullish dollar charts in the past and USD/BRL was one of them. Over the past few weeks we have seen a fast move in USD/BRL, breaking above 1.92; inverted H&S pattern’s neckline. This resulted in a spike towards 2.0 levels and it is […]
Yesterday’s trading session pushed the Volatility Index higher and CBOE VIX breached the important resistance at 22 levels. This is an important breakout as VIX is now above the inverted Head & Shoulder pattern neckline. Higher VIX signals weakness for equities in the intermediate term. Please note that inverted H&S pattern price target is 30. 22 level will now become […]
VIX is the ticker symbol for the Chicago Board Options Exchange Market Volatility Index, a popular measure of the implied volatility of S&P 500 index options. Often referred to as the fear index or the fear gauge, it represents one measure of the market’s expectation of stock market volatility over the next 30 day period. […]
The longer it takes for a chart pattern to develop, the more significant it becomes. Breakout from a long-term base formation should be respected. U.S. dollar has been gaining strength against some of the emerging market currencies over the past one year. Though we haven’t experienced a major shift from emerging market currencies to U.S. dollar, reversal chart […]
