Bond prices are rising again. German government bonds are looking strong as Bund futures prepare for a breakout from a 2 year-long consolidation range. Since mid-2012 German Bund has been consolidating between 137 and 147 levels. Prices are now testing the strong resistance at 147 levels for the 4th time. Breakout above 147 can result […]
While you are reading this post please note that I’m not basing my decision-making and my analysis on the latest developments in middle east. I’ve been analyzing Brent crude and the energy sector for some time. Earlier analysis (May 17, 2014 / Mar 29, 2014 / Mar 3, 2014) suggested a strong directional move that is likely to develop. Low volatility […]
I analyzed this pair in April 2014. Cross rate showed significant chart pattern development at a historical support. AUD/NZD is trying to rebound from 3 decade-long support level. 1.05 was tested for five times over the past thirty years. Each test was recorded as medium/long-term low. We are there again… Not only the long-term chart […]
Is Corn forming a perfect inverted head and shoulder chart pattern? If yes, price should rally from these levels and reach the neckline around 530 levels in the next few weeks and if you see such price action you should be more confident that a year-long base formation is about to complete, suggesting much higher […]
Long-term trends can be interrupted by short/medium-term consolidations; in other words “breath-taking” periods. In technical analysis these type of short/medium-term consolidations are classified as flag, pennant, triangle or rectangle chart pattern. Each chart pattern has its own characteristics. Since the beginning of 2013, British pound has been outperforming Singapore dollar. Cross rate formed a clear uptrend. […]
In 2011, USD/KES (U.S. Dollar/Kenyan Shilling) cross rate experienced a strong breakout to all-time high levels. Breakout from the low volatility period was followed by a sharp rally that pushed the cross rate from 82 levels to 106 levels in less than a year. Central Bank of Kenya reacted by raising the benchmark interest rate […]
Over the past few months I wrote several updates on Brent Crude Oil . I think energy sector will be the “hot” topic in the second half of the year. The likelihood of a strong breakout is increasing as the consolidation resumes in this tight trading range. Breakouts from low volatility periods are usually very powerful. United […]
Long-term base formations are powerful and breakouts from these chart patterns should be taken seriously. In April, the 30 year U.S. government bonds broke out of an inverse head and shoulder pattern. Breakout above 135.3 levels confirmed the bullish chart pattern which was followed by a pullback. Now we are seeing the continuation of the earlier strength. Another bullish […]
Markets that breakout to all time high levels usually don’t look back. Price enters the uncharted territory where it doesn’t meet any resistance. Some breakouts fail and fall back below the resistance they breached earlier. At that point we know that something was wrong with the earlier breakout. However most of the breakouts to all time high levels are […]
Friday’s move on the U.S. dollar index could be a major medium-term reversal for some of the cross rates out there. I’ve discussed the U.S. dollar index chart in my earlier updates and drew attention to the importance of the strong medium-term support at 79.5 levels. (Earlier update is here) During last week U.S. dollar […]
