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GLOBAL EQUITY MARKETS – December 29, 2018

Dear Tech Charts members,

One more year is behind us. In the beginning of every year I wish health for family members, friends and their loved ones. Tech Charts community has become a family. I wish all of you a healthy New Year. I hope the new year brings new hopes and aspirations along with the zeal and courage to keep up with those commitments. Wish you all the best.

Kind regards,

REVIEW


Global equity markets performance as measured by the iShares MSCI All Country World Index ETF (ACWI.O) rebounded from oversold levels. In the time frame I analyze price charts (daily, weekly and monthly) from a classical charting perspective there is no clear sign of reversal. V bottoms can take place and they are usually difficult to anticipate and analyze. My best guess is that we see some sort of consolidation after December's sharp sell-off. The consolidation can result in a re-test of previous lows. We will be able to tell as we get new evidence (data points) from the markets. For now I can say that the ACWI ETF (ACWI.O) stabilized around the support at 63 levels. Strong resistance stands at 66.3 levels. The ETF is trading below its long-term average and is in a steady downtrend.

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GLOBAL EQUITY MARKETS – October 13, 2018

REVIEW


Since the beginning of 2018, the performance between Emerging Markets and Developed Markets diverged. Emerging Markets have underperformed the Developed Markets by around 15%. Two charts below show the relative performance ratio between EEM and ACWI and also the MSCI indices, MSCI Emerging Markets Index vs. MSCI World Markets Index. You can see the fluctuations on the ratio over the years.

2016-2017 was a period of EM outperformance. In the beginning of 2018, the ratio reversed sharply and the past 10 months resulted in a massive underperformance for the Emerging Markets. We might be at an inflection point as the ratio is now testing 2016 lows. Emerging Markets might start outperforming the Developed Markets once again. (The ratio is calculated by dividing two time series EEM & ACWI and indexing it to 1 on the 1st January 2018)

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A REVIEW ON ASIAN EQUITY BENCHMARKS

Every week Tech Charts Global Equity Markets report features some of the well-defined, mature classical chart patterns under a lengthy watchlist and the chart pattern breakout signals that took place during that week. Global Equity Markets report covers single stocks from developed, emerging and frontier markets, ETF’s and global equity indices. The report starts with a review section that highlights the important chart developments on global equity benchmarks. This blog post features part of the review section highlighting chart pattern developments on Asian equity benchmarks.

REVIEW


Over the past few months two major breakdowns were featured on Asia equity markets. Both Korea Kospi 200 Index and Singapore Strait Times Index completed top formations and breached their long-term averages. Breakdowns also breached their multi-year upward trend line supports. Singapore Strait Times Index is now very close to its chart pattern price target at 3,100 levels. However, the index is in a steady downtrend and there is no evidence of a short-term bottom formation.

Korea Kospi 200 Index completed a year-long H&S top chart pattern after breaching the neckline at 304 levels. The index remains below its long-term average and in a steady downtrend. The year-long H&S top has an unmet price target at 273.7 levels.

China SSE 50 Index first breached its long-term average and then broke down its 4 year-long upward trend line at 2,615 levels. Last two month’s consolidation is possibly forming a symmetrical triangle that can act as a bearish continuation chart pattern. Strong resistance area remains between 2,615 and 2,625 levels. Chinese equities are in a steady downtrend.

Two Asian equity benchmarks are holding well despite the weakness in regional equities. Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index and Taiwan ETF (EWT) listed on the New York Stock Exchange, are going through tight consolidations. Charts below feature the 1st month continuation futures price chart for Nikkei 225 Index and the iShares MSCI Taiwan ETF (EWT). Breakout higher from these tight consolidations can be positive for both Japan and Taiwan equities.

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GLOBAL EQUITY MARKETS – September 1, 2018

REVIEW


The iShares MSCI All Country World Index ETF (ACWI.O) breached the upper boundary of its 6 month-long symmetrical triangle. The upper boundary is acting as resistance at 73.9 levels. The jury is still out. We need to see a follow through in the following week to call for a breakout from the lengthy sideways consolidation. This week's price action can be a premature breakout that can be followed by a secondary completion. More on: Premature & False breakouts

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GLOBAL EQUITY MARKETS – August 25, 2018

REVIEW


Once again the benchmark for Global Equity Markets performance, the iShares MSCI All Country World Index ETF (ACWI.O) is challenging the upper boundary of its 6 month-long sideways consolidation. The upper boundary was tested several times over the past few months. Resistance stands at 73.9. The lower boundary of the possible symmetrical triangle is acting as support at 70.5 levels. The ACWI ETF is trading above its long-term (200-day) average. Breakout above the upper boundary can complete the multi-month sideways consolidation and result in a directional move. The ACWI ETF still remains in a trading range.

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