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Chart Pattern Statistics, H&S continuation and H&S failures – December 2020 Tech Charts Webinar

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Chart Pattern Statistics, H&S continuation and H&S failures - December 2020 Tech Charts Webinar

We are continuing our Member webinar series with several important and frequently asked topics. Given that the topics are different concepts in technical analysis/classical charting and trading, each section will have a +/- 10 min presentation followed by Q&A on that section.

Webinar Outline
  • Review of chart pattern statistics and discussion on chart pattern reliability / Q&A
  • Current market conditions and review of major benchmarks/important chart pattern developments / Q&A
  • A frequently asked chart pattern, H&S continuation and review of H&S failures and how to trade them / Q&A
  • A typical day for me, the daily routine, selection of markets, review and research tips / Q&A
  • Additional Q&A
Live questions from Members Concept One 2:30
  1. No Questions 
Concept Two 16:45
  1. I wanted to know more about log scale and how to set targets using it. For instance, I have seen some chartist giving two targets for H&S, one for each scale. 28:44
  2. Where do you usually set your "stop loss" in the H&S bottom/continuation? Is it the negation level, or do you use other criteria? 30:35
  3. Do you use the 200 SMA or Exponential & why? Any other moving average you use? 32:11
  4. Could you provide another example or two for setting the H&S target? Do we measure from the neckline to the bottom of the lowest candle body in the head, or to a wick? 33:31
  5. Do you always get out of 100% of your trade when it gets to its objective? Or do you switch to a trailing stop? 33:47
Link of interest Concept Three 34:15
  1. On the last chart, it didn't look the H&S pattern had been completed by breaching the neckline, so why is it a H&S failure? (Possibly page 17 or 18.) 49:09
  2. How did you calculate the H&S failure price target on page 19? 50:21
  3. In the H&S bottom with NON-Horizontal neckline (neckline with slope), how do you measure the price target? 51:03
  4. If you wait for the closing price for the breakout signal, how do you decide the trigger price? 51:38
  5. Are you discounting the validity of vertical necklines against the horizontal ones? 52:35
  6. How do you handle spindles? By using Stop Close Only orders? 53:28
  7. If a stocks breaks down and then reverses and goes above the right shoulder, is that a H&S failure? 54:26
Concept Four 55:05
  1. In this BTC Monthly chart, in the log scale, do you see "Cup & Handle" with a neckline at $13,880? 1:05:00
  2. How do you look at Netflix now? 1:06:16
  3. How did you set the target about the sym triangle in slide 30? from the first point? 1:06:53
  4. Do you ever take any help from any indicator while identifying the chart patterns? 1:07:32
  5. Please check GH & KO in you have time 1:08:35
  6. With weekly patterns the chart validation points usually have much wider risk; what % of NAV risk for each position do you use for weekly and what for daily patterns breakouts? 1:08:44
Concept Five 1:11:33
  1. In the US Marker review, for example, I am assuming you are not going chart by chart and have a certain criteria "as starting point" to pick your charts. Do you mind sharing your criteria (if any)? 1:16:24  
  2. Vacation? 1:17:49
  3. Can you explain a bit more about how you use volatility to identify possible patterns? I'm not sure how you review so many stocks! 1:18:05
  4. Do you scan charts by industry? 1:20:14
  5. Do you enter orders during 1 hour before the close? 1:20:41
  6. Would you elaborate a bit further about cases that you can open a position intraday, and do you keep stops during weekends? 1:21:20 
Additional questions 1:23:44
  1. The filter I find useful is the MA 18 weekly rather EMA 200 . What do you think about it? 1:23:45
  2. Could you suggest about position size strategy? 1:24:27
  3. I know you previously mentioned about sending a report on Chinese stocks. Are you still planning to do so - thanks for all you do. 1:25:17
  4. Aren't Keltner channels more useful than Bollinger bands? After all, Keltner is based on ATRs -- actual price ranges, not just the moving average close which Bollinger uses? 1:25:42
  5. Do you think the volume of stocks is relevant for the pattern success ratio? 1:26:31
Link of interest Recorded live 12.03.2020   Read More

Re-entry, Volatility & ATR based stop-loss – September 2020 Tech Charts Webinar

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Re-entry, Volatility & ATR based stop-loss - September 2020 Tech Charts Webinar We are continuing our Member webinar series with several important and frequently asked topics. In the following webinar, we will follow a different approach. Given that the topics are different concepts in technical analysis/classical charting and trading, each section will have a +/- 10 min presentation followed by Q&A on that section. Webinar Outline
  • RE-ENTRY strategy after an out of line movement or hard re-test. We will try to understand how to navigate volatile price action around pattern boundaries. Followed by Q&A
  • Differences between Stop-loss and Chart pattern negation levels.
  • Volatility (Average True Range and Bollinger Bands).
  • 200-day average, how to utilize it as a trend-following tool.
  • ATR based trailing stop-loss and its application on chart pattern breakouts.
  • Follow-up Q&A
Live questions from Members Concept One 2:27
  • Are there any situations in which you'd enter a trade immediately upon breakout, rather than waiting for the daily close? How about the opposite -- are there situations where you might wait a little longer after a breakout to buy? 25:09
  • Do head and shoulders with sloping necklines as reliable as the ones with flat necklines? 27:25
Concept Two 27:52
  1. Would you ignore breakout from chart patterns happening far away from 200dma? 36:47
  2. Except 200 dma, ATR trailing stop loss, which other indicators you use (if you use) for confirmation of a breakout? 37:35
  3. Is the 200 dma simple or exponential? What are the pros & cons of one compared to the other? 38:54 
  4. Why the 200EMA and not the 200SMA? 39:20
  5. Would you track the crossing over of the 50 DMA and 200 DMA? 39:51
  6. EMA on Weekly or Monthly also? 40:05
Helpful video links:  Concept Three 40:53
  1. You use volatility bandwidth instead of bands? 56:05
  2. What is the ATR minimum target you will use for bullish or bearish breakouts? 56:31
  3. What period of EMA would be reasonable to apply on the ATR to identify the volatility. I'm asking this because the volatility usually doesn't change by large amounts in forex. 57:08
  4. Similarly, what is the BB width do you use for bullish or bearish breakouts? 57:48 (Recommended Reading List) 
  5. Can you apply these same practices to predicting breakdowns for shorting? 58:18
Additional Questions
  1. Do you use these patterns mainly for stocks/equities or futures/options as well? If yes, then how do you manage the risk for F&O? 58:35
  2. Has Brent crude oil broken downwards from a wedge pattern today? 59:14  
  3. Please post charts of the companies listed in the US when you post it when listed in Asia or any other country. For example, when you post a chart for Dr.Reddy's Lab, India listed is also listed in the US under ticker RDY along with the chart for Dr. Reddy's, etc. 59:26
  4. Do you use price charts with adjusted dividend data or without adjusted dividend data. What is the reason preferring one over another? 1:01:26   
  5. Why don't you use volumes in your charts? Can you please explain the reasons? 1:03:14
  6. While trading in forex, the 3% breakout rule doesn't seem to apply. Are you aware of any specific measure which could be followed in forex like in terms of pips or percentage? 1:05:24
  7. Just like me, your methods of based heavily on the classical methods on TA. Do you use any automation to scan for classical pattern s on Metastock? I don't think that such automation to scan classical pattern is possible -- and on the other h and, manual flipping of charts is extremely time-consuming. 1:06:10
  8. Do you use that ATR Trailing in MetaStock with a special indicator? 1:07:50 (ATR trailing stop-loss plug in for MetaStock) 
  9. How did you determine the best stoploss ATR? 1:08:46
  10. When is the best time to enter a trade? Just a few minutes before the closing or the day after at opening? 1:09:25
  11. Do you check the relation between volume and the price when deciding to enter or exit the position? 1:10:41
  12. Why do you like Metastock rather than other websites? Any strong reasons? 1:11:16
Recorded live 09.03.2020     Read More

4 Types of Breakouts – March 2020 Tech Charts Webinar

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4 Types of Breakouts - March 2020 Tech Charts Webinar

We are continuing our Member webinar series with a review of 4 types of breakouts. 

Type 1 are breakouts that immediately rally to price target. Type 2 are breakouts that pullback to chart pattern boundary after the breakout but do not challenge the previously broken support/resistance. These two breakouts are relatively easier to manage when compared with the breakouts that experience a hard re-test (penetrating the chart pattern boundary after a breakout) and those that fail (Type 3 & Type 4).

We will review all 4 types of breakouts with recent examples and discuss strategies to manage each condition.

Webinar Outline
  • We will review some of those chart pattern breakouts that rally to their price objective without any pullback
  • We will review some of the breakouts that complete an orderly pullback to chart pattern boundary
  • We will look at some of the breakouts that experience hard re-test and challenge chart pattern boundaries
  • We will review some of the breakouts that failed off of the starting gate.
  • We will have a member Q&A at the end of the webinar.
Live questions from Members  
  1. I know you're a classical market technician, but with such a severe one-sided breakdown, are you ever tempted to trade something for a pullback even though you don't have a classical pattern? 36:21
  2. Does the speed with which a pattern breakout achieves the target price indicate that you should let the trade run? 37:24
  3. Can you find signs in the chart that could indicate what type of breakout is going to occur? 38:02
  4. Do you reduce your position sizing (i.e., instead of 1% risk per trade, 0.50% risk) during extended volatility like we're seeing? 39:42
  5. Can you explain how to calculate the trailing stop loss again? 40:10
    1. Additional links ATR Trailing Stop-Loss – H&S Top & ATR plug-in
  6. How do you incorporate sentiment measures (COT DSI etc.) into your decision making? 40:48  
  7. Do you think that in market conditions such as these, the probability of a failed chart occurring is higher? 41:02
  8. Do you ever circumvent your ATR trailing stop and place it below a newly formed chart pattern negation level that's above the initial entry position? 42:32
  9. I noticed that on one trade, you placed an SL at the bottom of a gap, but on another, you placed it at the top of a GAP. Do you have rules for deciding this? 43:50
  10. Is it possible to use this method for long term investing? If yes, would you use the same trailing method? 45:13
  11. Can the ATR stop rule be implemented in a trading platform? 46:19
  12. How do you determine your ATR length and multiplier number? Is it historical chart based and specific to a specific chart? Are commodities different than stock charts? 47:13
  13. As volatility during the day can be larger, have you used one ATR multiple for intra-bar & a lesser ATR multiple near the close, whereby one cancels the other OCO? 49:20
  14. Over the years, the ratio between reversal patterns vs. continuation patterns? Do you cap that ratio, or you let the patterns dictate what you have currently? 50:08
  15. Do you always trade long? Never short? 51:13
Recorded live 03.26.2020    Read More

Short-Term Chart Patterns Tech Charts Webinar

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Please enjoy this Tech Charts Member webinar recorded live December 12, 2019

Short-Term Chart Patterns - December 2019 Tech Charts Webinar

This webinar is a discussion on chart patterns that develop and complete on a short-term time frame, in the duration between 1 month to 3 months.

Webinar Outline

  • We will review some of those chart pattern breakouts that were featured in the Global Equity Markets report
  • We will review some of the conditions that are required for successful completion of different chart patterns both on daily and weekly time frame
  • We will look at some of the developing chart patterns
  • We will have a member Q&A at the end of the webinar

Live questions from Members  

  1. Do you use MA or EMA? 50:33
  2. I wanted to check if it is possible for you to include in your weekly report a performance of setup of your charts? 51:02 (Webinar mentioned A review of the most reliable chart patterns Tech Charts Global Equity Markets report featured over the past two years – September 2019 Tech Charts Webinar)
  3. Can the ascending or descending triangle be trend reversal patterns? 51:37
  4. Can you discuss success rates for weekly setups vs. daily? 52:37
  5. If the handle is a bit above the cup is the breakout level above the cup or above the handle? 53:48
  6. When you post a breakout alert on the website, is the red number dotted line a negation level or your initial stop loss? 54:17
  7. What's the ATR setting you use and do you check and adjust stops on a daily basis? 54:45 (Helpful link ATR Trailing Stop-Loss – H&S Top)
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Short-Term Chart Patterns – December 2019 Tech Charts Webinar

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Short-Term Chart Patterns - December 2019 Tech Charts Webinar This webinar is a discussion on chart patterns that develop and complete on a short-term time frame, in the duration between 1 month to 3 months. Webinar Outline
  • We will review some of those chart pattern breakouts that were featured in the Global Equity Markets report
  • We will review some of the conditions that are required for successful completion of different chart patterns both on daily and weekly time frame
  • We will look at some of the developing chart patterns
  • We will have a member Q&A at the end of the webinar
Live questions from Members  
  1. Do you use MA or EMA? 50:33
  2. I wanted to check if it is possible for you to include in your weekly report a performance of setup of your charts? 51:02 (Webinar mentioned A review of the most reliable chart patterns Tech Charts Global Equity Markets report featured over the past two years – September 2019 Tech Charts Webinar)
  3. Can the ascending or descending triangle be trend reversal patterns? 51:37
  4. Can you discuss success rates for weekly setups vs. daily? 52:37
  5. If the handle is a bit above the cup is the breakout level above the cup or above the handle? 53:48
  6. When you post a breakout alert on the website, is the red number dotted line a negation level or your initial stop loss? 54:17
  7. What's the ATR setting you use and do you check and adjust stops on a daily basis? 54:45 (Helpful link ATR Trailing Stop-Loss – H&S Top)
Recorded live 12.12.2019      Read More

A review of the most reliable chart patterns Tech Charts Global Equity Markets report featured over the past two years – September 2019 Tech Charts Webinar

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A review of the most reliable chart patterns Tech Charts Global Equity Markets report featured over the past two years – September 2019 Tech Charts Webinar

Webinar Outline

  • We will review some of those chart pattern breakouts that were featured in the Global Equity Markets report 
  • We will review some of the conditions that are required for successful completion of different chart patterns 
  • We will look at some of the developing bullish continuation chart patterns 
  • We will continue to highlight Tech Charts members favorite chart pattern setups in different equity markets
  • We will have a member Q&A at the end of the webinar

Live questions from Members  

  1. On triangle breakouts, how important do you feel it is to clear the last pivot point (as opposed to buying the breakout immediately) before entering a trade? 1:07:49
  2. Could you please comment the HUI or GDX graph? 1:08:30
  3. You have been using SSE50 to analyze China. May I suggest including or start using A50? The reason is apparently the futures contracts trading on SGX. Or, is there a leveraged way to trade SSE50 other than CFD? 1:09:15
  4. Slide 2 – Is the moving average simple, exponential, or something else? 1:09:52
  5. Can you start posting the slides with the member webinar on the member site? It would be very helpful. 1:10:52
  6. H&S bottom reversal: it looks like from the examples that the downtrend line would be breached, retested and form the right shoulder and then breakout. The question, would it be advisable to take position after right shoulder(retest of the down trend line)? 1:11:09
  7. When a H&S has a neckline that is slanted left or right, to which point do you trade? 1:12:08
  8. Why three times 10-period ATR? Is it from experience, is this the best setting for Aksel’s time frame? 1:13:02
  9. Broadening triangle – It’s probably not worth taking a position but when a flat top broadening triangle forms in the downtrend, is there a bias? Example Canada government bond 2-year rate. Flat top broadening triangle formed from March, in the middle of the downtrend. 1:14:30
  10. How do you answer something like this: “I never thought buying breakouts was a good way to trade. Takes so many buyer s to get a stock through resistance. You don’t wanna be buying AFTER that…Pullbacks after the breakout or ahead of a breakout only for me.” 1:15:32
  11. When a premature breakout happens, and the stop is hit, if the breakout happens again, would you take the signal again? If yes, do you change the position size if the risk is lower this time (pivot closer to breakout level)? 1:16:47
  12. Have you calculated which patterns tend to assume which roles: continuation vs. reversal? 1:17:37
  13. Is there any suggestion, other than using the correlation table, which breakout signals to select from because you highlight many and they all look pretty good. 1:18:32
  14. What does on a daily closing basis mean – example when saying, “That the 3%-breakout-confirmation has to happen on a daily closing basis?” 1:19:14

Recorded live 9.15.2019 

 

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A review of the most reliable chart patterns Tech Charts Global Equity Markets report featured over the past two years – September 2019 Tech Charts Webinar

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A review of the most reliable chart patterns Tech Charts Global Equity Markets report featured over the past two years - September 2019 Tech Charts Webinar Webinar Outline
  • We will review some of those chart pattern breakouts that were featured in the Global Equity Markets report 
  • We will review some of the conditions that are required for successful completion of different chart patterns 
  • We will look at some of the developing bullish continuation chart patterns 
  • We will continue to highlight Tech Charts members favorite chart pattern setups in different equity markets
  • We will have a member Q&A at the end of the webinar
Live questions from Members  
  1. On triangle breakouts, how important do you feel it is to clear the last pivot point (as opposed to buying the breakout immediately) before enter ing a trade? 1:07:49
  2. Could you please comment the HUI or GDX graph? 1:08:30
  3. You have been using SSE50 to analyze China. May I suggest including or start using A50? The reason is apparently the futures contracts trading on SGX. Or, is there a leveraged way to trade SSE50 other than CFD? 1:09:15
  4. Slide 2 - Is the moving average simple, exponential, or something else? 1:09:52
  5. Can you start posting the slides with the member webinar on the member site? It would be very helpful. 1:10:52
  6. H&S bottom reversal: it looks like from the examples that the downtrend line would be breached, retested and form the right shoulder and then breakout. The question, would it be advisable to take position after right shoulder(retest of the down trend line)? 1:11:09
  7. When a H&S has a neckline that is slanted left or right, to which point do you trade? 1:12:08
  8. Why three times 10-period ATR? Is it from experience, is this the best setting for Aksel's time frame? 1:13:02
  9. Broadening triangle - It's probably not worth taking a position but when a flat top broadening triangle forms in the downtrend, is there a bias? Example Canada government bond 2-year rate. Flat top broadening triangle formed from March, in the middle of the downtrend. 1:14:30
  10. How do you answer something like this: "I never thought buying breakouts was a good way to trade. Takes so many buyer s to get a stock through resistance. You don't wanna be buying AFTER that...Pullbacks after the breakout or ahead of a breakout only for me.” 1:15:32
  11. When a premature breakout happens, and the stop is hit, if the breakout happens again, would you take the signal again? If yes, do you change the position size if the risk is lower this time (pivot closer to breakout level)? 1:16:47
  12. Have you calculated which patterns tend to assume which roles: continuation vs. reversal? 1:17:37
  13. Is there any suggestion, other than using the correlation table, which breakout signals to select from because you highlight many and they all look pretty good. 1:18:32
  14. What does on a daily closing basis mean - example when saying, “That the 3%-breakout-confirmation has to happen on a daily closing basis?” 1:19:14
Recorded live 9.15.2019    Read More

LEARNING TO IDENTIFY CHART PATTERNS

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As part of our member webinars, on the 8th of March 2018 we recorded a live webinar discussing ascending triangle patterns. During the Q&A session one of the Tech Charts members asked this question, "If I’m new to classical charting, what should I do to learn how to identify each pattern?"

We have prepared an excerpt from the webinar. I hope that it will add value in your learning experience. Educational Videos section is expanding rapidly. In the following months we plan not only more educational tutorials on Classical Charting Principles but also videos on the fine points of Technical Analysis.

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SEARCHING THROUGH THOUSANDS OF CHARTS

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As part of our member webinars, on the 8th of March 2018 we recorded a live webinar discussing ascending triangle patterns. During the Q&A session one of the Tech Charts members asked this question, “Do you actually search through hundreds of charts each week or do you use a software that alerts you to a breakout taking place across various markets?”

We have prepared an excerpt from the webinar. I hope that it will add value in your learning experience.

Our year anniversary is fast approaching. In May our Tech Charts quarterly and yearly membership rates will increase. If you’re interested in becoming a Tech Charts member, get in NOW before this increase takes place. As a reminder your membership rate is locked in for the life of your active subscription.

Tech Charts Membership

By becoming a Premium Member, you’ll be able to improve your knowledge of the principles of classical charting.

With this knowledge, you can merge them with your investing system. In fact, some investors use my analyses to modify their existing style to invest more efficiently and successfully.

Get Access Now

As a Premium Member of Aksel Kibar’s Tech Charts,

You will receive:

  • Global Equities Report. Delivered weekly.
  • Classical charting principles. Learn patterns and setups.
  • Actionable information. Worldwide indices and stocks of interest.
  • Risk management advice. The important trading points of each chart.
  • Information on breakout opportunities. Identify the ones you want to take action on.
  • Video tutorials. How patterns form and why they succeed or fail.
  • Watch list alerts. As they become available so you can act quickly.
  • Breakout alerts. Usually once a week.
  • Access to everything (now and as it becomes available)
    o Reports
    o Videos and video series
  • Multi-part webinar course. You learn the 8 most common charting principles.
  • Webinars. Actionable and timely advice on breaking out chart patterns.

For your convenience your membership auto renews each year.

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LONG-TERM CHARTS & LAUNCHING PATTERNS

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Stock prices are either in a follow through trending phase or in a consolidation phase. During a strong trending period, a stock will proceed from one price level to another with very little interruption. During a consolidation period a stock will move in both directions without producing any meaningful or sustained price change.

During periods of consolidation prices tend to form a recognizable chart pattern which helps us to determine the direction and magnitude of the next substantial trend with some degree of accuracy.

Because price action and chart patterns are a result of human interaction, it is possible to find those repeating chart patterns in different markets, in different time frames such as on daily, weekly and monthly scale and in different time periods.

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