RECTANGLE – TRADING RANGE

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A stock (ETF, Index etc.) price is either in a trending phase or in a consolidation period. During strong trend periods prices move uninterrupted from one price level to another. During consolidations prices move in both directions without producing any meaningful or sustained price change and will form well-defined support and resistance areas on the charts. A support range represents a concentration of demand, and a resistance range represents a concentration of supply.

A resistance level is an approximate level or fairly well-defined price range, where previously advancing stock meets resistance in the form of strong selling. A support level is an approximate level or price range where a preceding decline meets support, in the form of strong buying. A possible explanation for appearance of such well-defined price boundaries in the form of support and resistance can be the fact that the public tend to remember previous levels the stock has traded.

The longer the time which the stock spent in that range, therefore, the greater the number of transactions, the more important that range becomes for future technical consideration. In applying support and resistance study to price charts, the weekly scale time frame is usually more informative than daily scale. Weekly charts show much more plainly the levels at which congestion of significant duration appeared.

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GLOBAL EQUITY MARKETS – February 10, 2018

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Global equity benchmarks deviated far from the averages that a 10% correction in 2 weeks is still considered a reversion to the mean. With this week’s continued sell-off both benchmarks for Global equities, the iShares MSCI All Country World Index ETF and the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index ETF reached their respective 200-day (40 week) moving averages. The 200-day moving average and the lower boundary of multi-month long upward trend channels are forming support around the same levels. Read more

INTERIM UPDATE – February 9, 2018

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PREMATURE & FALSE BREAKOUTS

Below two paragraphs are taken from Peter L. Brandt’s Diary of a Professional Commodity Trader – Lessons from 21 weeks of real trading.

“A premature breakout is different from an out of line movement in the sense that a premature breakout can close outside of a predrawn boundary line and even spend several days in breakout mode. Prices then return back to the geometric pattern. However, the initial breakout was only a harbinger of things to come, and within a few weeks a genuine breakout occurs. I call these subsequent breakouts secondary breakouts or pattern recompletions.” – Ch 3, page 38, Identifying the trades and the trading vocabulary

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INTERIM UPDATE – February 8, 2018

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SIBANYE GOLD LTD (SGLJ.J, SBGL.K)

Sibanye Gold Limited is an independent, global precious metal mining company. The Company is engaged in producing a mix of metals that includes gold and the platinum group metals (PGMs). Its projects are grouped by two regions: the Southern Africa region and the Americas region. Its products include gold, platinum group metals and by-products. The Company’s gold project in the Southern Africa region includes Beatrix, Cooke, Driefontein, and Kloof. Its PGM projects include Kroondal, Rustenburg operations, Mimosa, and Platinum Mile. Its other projects in the Southern Africa region include Burnstone, Kloof Decline, Driefontein decline, The West Rand Tailings Retreatment Project (WRTRP) and The Southern Free State (SOFS) project. The Company’s PGM project in the Americas region includes East Boulder, Stillwater, and Columbus Metallurgical Complex. Its other projects in the Americas region include Blitz, Altar and Marathon. The stock is listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange as well as on the New York Stock Exchange via depository receipts.

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GLOBAL EQUITY MARKETS – February 3, 2018

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2018 started with strong weekly gains. The steady uptrend on the iShares MSCI All Country World Index ETF took a steep shape in January due to back to back long weekly candlesticks. This week’s sharp reversal gave back last two week’s gains. From a classical charting perspective we don’t have enough evidence to call the latest reversal a “market top”. Multi month-long uptrend is still intact. We are currently experiencing a reversion back to the averages or to the long-term trend line supports. Global equities can retrace further and major equity benchmarks can still remain in their long-term uptrends. We will need more evidence in the following weeks.

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INTERIM UPDATE – February 2, 2018

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Germany’s DAX Index experienced a sharp sell-off after reaching all-time highs. Last one week’s price action pulled the index back to strong support level at 12,800 levels. Read more

HEAD & SHOULDER FAILURE

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Every week Tech Charts Global Equity Markets report features some of the well-defined, mature classical chart patterns under a lengthy watchlist and the chart pattern breakout signals that took place during that week. Global Equity Markets report covers single stocks from developed and emerging markets, ETF’s and global equity indices. The report starts with a review section that highlights the important chart developments on global equity benchmarks. This blog post features an educational piece from the Tech Charts Study of the Global Equity Markets report.

HEAD & SHOULDER FAILURE

Head and Shoulder is a reliable reversal chart pattern that forms after an advance or a decline and the completion of the formation suggests a reversal of the existing trend. Global Equity Markets report focuses mainly on chart patterns with horizontal boundaries. H&S shoulder chart patterns with horizontal necklines are usually highlighted in the weekly reports.

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GLOBAL EQUITY MARKETS – January 27, 2018

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This was another strong week for the Global Equity Markets. The iShares MSCI All Country World Index ETF, a benchmark for global equity markets performance, continued to resume its strong uptrend above the 21 month-long upward trend. The uptrend has taken a parabolic shape. Parabolic price action is not sustainable. Short-term pullback and reversion to the mean is a possibility. At this point there is no clear chart pattern that would suggest a trend reversal.

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GLOBAL EQUITY MARKETS – January 20, 2018

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Strength in the Chinese equities started with a breakout on the China Large Caps. However, over the past year the performance for the broad market in China as shown by the China SSE Composite Index was not impressive when compared with China Large Cap ETF (FXI). In the second half of 2017, the SSE Composite index completed an 8 month-long rectangle. Following the breakout the index lacked follow through. SSE Composite Index spent the second half of 2017 by pulling back to the chart pattern boundary at 3,300 levels and to the long-term 200 day (40 week) moving average. Since the beginning of the year we have seen a strong performance on the SSE Composite Index with strong back to back weekly gains. Initial price target for the 8 month-long rectangle stands at 3,560 levels. More important than the short-term price target, current technical outlook might be signaling a new multi-month long uptrend developing for the Chinese equities.

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HOW TO START ANALYZING A PRICE CHART

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As part of our member webinars, on the 14th of December 2017 we recorded a live webinar discussing rectangle chart patterns. During the Q&A session one of the Tech Charts members asked a very important question.

The points I discussed were my “AHA moments” in becoming better at analyzing price charts over the past decade. We have prepared an excerpt from the webinar. I hope that it will add value in your learning experience.

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