Review of Chart Pattern Reliability Statistics and Opportunities in Global Markets – September 2022 Tech Charts Webinar

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Review of Chart Pattern Reliability Statistics and Opportunities in Global Markets - September 2022 Tech Charts Webinar

We are continuing our Member webinar series with chart pattern reliability and how the latest market conditions have impacted success rates on different chart patterns. We plan to have an interactive session and an open discussion to answer members' questions on different markets and specific charts of interest. Webinar Outline
  • Review of chart pattern statistics and discussion on chart pattern reliability covering the third quarter of 2022
  • Review of global equity markets and latest opportunities
  • Review of cryptocurrencies and latest opportunities
  • Open discussion answering member's questions on different markets and specific charts they want to discuss
  • Education/analysis of fine points on classical charting as we go through different charts/questions

Live questions from Members

  1. India has been in a sideways movement for a year. I know you've featured a bunch of names from here. Do you see this EM as an outlier of strength amongst most EMs? 48:45
  2. I have been looking at the crypto ticker XLM/USD and XLM/BTC. It seems to be setting up a strong bottom. 49:39
  3. I see you use MetaStock. Is there any specific reason? 51:08 (LINK for MetaStock)
  4. Do you only trade the chart patterns? Do you wait for the confirmation for the price close? What do you do when closing diminishes the Risk reward relationship? 52:14
  5. Would you be able to give me a stop loss (as you would use) for your India positions? 53:20
  6. Can you go over the breakout setup in NOC? 55:06 (LINK ATR TRAILING STOP-LOSS) 
  7. How important is EEM nowadays? Isn't it mostly made up of China tech? Isn't it better to look at individual EM ETFs rather than EEM? 57:05
  8. In your weekly report for some index or stocks, you are using DEMA200 or DSMA200. It's a bit confusing which one to use. 57:43
  9. Yen had a crazy day today. 58:03
  10. Your thoughts on the continuing strength of the U S Dollar & its effect globally? 58:05
  11. Could you give us your view on EWZ (brazil) and also an update on NIKKEI? It looks like a bull trap confirmed above the rectangle breakout. 59:38
  12. Can you summarize any charts that look bullish? Everything seems bearish. 01:01:43
  13. Can you please chart BBBY on daily? Is that a falling wedge from 8/17 to the present day? 01:02:08
  14. How do you trade Turkey ETF? On a USD or at a TRY base? 01:03:51
  15. On the BBBY monthly, is that a double bottom? 01:05:15

Educational Videos mentioned in this webinar 

Recorded live 09.22.2022  Read More

Tech Charts Year in Review – Year Five, May 2022 Webinar

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Tech Charts Year in Review. Aksel compares the before and after of charts shared with Members over the last year followed by a live Q&A. Tech Charts Year in Review – Year Five
  • A study on Chart Pattern Reliability with the available sample data over the past year.
  • Rectangle has been a reliable chart pattern with the H&S variations. Examples and studies on those reliable patterns.
  • Detailed statistics on different types of breakouts.
  • The impact of different market cycles on chart pattern opportunities.
  • Live Q&A
Live questions from Members
  1. SLIDE 5 - I only look for patterns that begin with a pivot point countering the preceding trend. However, I see on slide 5 that you've labeled the pattern beginning with two lower pivots after an uptrend. Am I being too rigid in defining my patterns? 50:55
  2. SLIDE 8 - In a Type 4 breakout, if the price reverses down and the negation level is hit, but the price then rebounds/recovers and breaks out again, why is the chart pattern destroyed? 52:20
  3. How is the breakout confirmation price calculated? 54:21 (Technical Analysis of Stock Trends, 5th Edition, Edwards and Magee) 
  4. In Peter Brandt's book "Diary of a Professional Commodity Trader: Lessons from 21 Weeks of Real Trading," he described the average duration of some classic patterns; my question is: do you have your own durations for classic chart patterns, or is the average duration universal to all classic chart patterns? 55:35 (Diary of a Professional Commodity Trader, Peter L. Brandt) 
  5. Do you take profits once a chart reaches its target, or do you let the trade run until you see signs of reversals? 56:35
  6. How many concurrent positions do you recommend a breakout trader hold? I'm reading the Mark Minervini books from your reading list, and he recommends holding no more than 4 positions (non-margined) to 8 positions (fully margined). Do you recommend similarly? 57:40
  7. I just want to make sure I understand that 1. the success rate is calculated from subjectively identified inside pattern minor price points? and hence 2. the success rate showed here has nothing to do with my trading success rate because everyone's stop level can be different? so 3. if that's the case, what's the point of calculating the success rate here unless we all use that minor point inside the pattern as a stop level? 59:03
Recorded live 05.19.2022 Read More

Chart Pattern Reliability & Review of Current Market Opportunities – March 2022 Tech Charts Webinar

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Chart Pattern Reliability & Review of Current Market Opportunities - March 2022 Tech Charts Webinar

We are continuing our Member webinar series with chart pattern reliability and how the latest market conditions have impacted success rates on different chart patterns. Webinar Outline
  • Review of chart pattern statistics and discussion on chart pattern reliability covering the first quarter of 2022
  • Review of markets and latest opportunities
  • Open discussion on answering members’ questions on different markets and specific charts they want to discuss
  • Education/analysis of fine points on classical charting as we go through different charts/questions

Live questions from Members

  1. SLIDE 3 - Is it possible to publish this data only for the US market? 01:07:37
  2. SLIDE 14 - When drawing the channel's lower boundary, I would have used the lows in 2014 and 2018 to connect the trendline. What made you confident ignoring those lows? 01:08:38
  3. Can you look at praj.ns. listed on the NSE in India? A rectangle with a premature breakout and now trying again? 01:10:46
  4. Do you use a minimum volume threshold to determine which ETFs make it into your asset universe? 01:12:17
  5. Do you believe AKAM is a valid rectangle? 01:13:21
  6. Do you have plans to add commodities to your reports? 01:14:35
  7. ARES chart, please. 01:14:54
  8. Do you adjust stock data for dividends? 01:16:12
  9. Is there technically a proper H&S top on ADBE? 01:17:42
  10. Another stock you've covered in the past is Indian hotel listed on NSE...another breakout rectangle breaking? 01:18:57
  11. When you wait for the 3% breakout threshold, do you only buy on the next day or at the close? 01:20:19

Educational Videos mentioned in this webinar 

Recorded live 03.31.2022  Read More

Two Different Strategies for Trading Classical Chart Patterns – December 2021 Tech Charts Webinar

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Two Different Strategies for Trading Classical Chart Patterns - December 2021 Tech Charts Webinar We are continuing our Member webinar series with chart pattern reliability and how the latest market conditions have impacted success rates on different chart patterns. Webinar Outline
  • Review of chart pattern statistics and discussion on chart pattern reliability
  • Two types of strategies with chart patterns, the breakout and the range-bound.
  • Fine points of trading those two strategies with logical levels of stop-loss, price targets and chart pattern negation levels
  • Review of latest market opportunities and conditions
  • Member Q&A
Read More

Chart Pattern Reliability & Statistics – September 2021 Tech Charts Webinar

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Chart Pattern Reliability & Statistics - September 2021 Tech Charts Webinar We continued our Member webinar series with chart pattern reliability and how the latest market conditions have impacted success rates on different chart patterns. What are the patterns that are robust in different types of market cycles?   Webinar Outline
  • Review of chart pattern statistics and discussion on chart pattern reliability
  • How to measure price objectives with bearish breakdowns
  • How to treat range-bound markets and take advantage of trading opportunities during well-defined ranges
  • Review of some of the latest breakout opportunities
  • Member Q&A
Read More

Tech Charts Year in Review with Aksel – May 2021

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Tech Charts Year in Review. Aksel compares the before and after of charts shared with Members over the last year followed by a live Q&A. Tech Charts Year in Review – Year Four
  • A study on Chart Pattern Reliability with the available sample data over the past year.
  • Rectangle has been a reliable chart pattern with the H&S variations. Examples and studies on those reliable patterns.
  • Detailed statistics on different types of breakouts.
  • The impact of different market cycles on chart pattern opportunities.
  • Live Q&A
Live questions from Members
  1. Are there certain stocks (MSFT, GOOGL, etc.) that have a greater likelihood for Rectangles? 58:47
  2. When do you enter into position on breakout day? Near closing time at market price or enter into position as soon as breakout occurs during the day? 59:39 
  3. Do you consider volume or any other similar confirmation indicator on breakout day? 1:00:36
  4. If you see the momentum is getting weaker, do you have any exit strategy before stop-loss is triggered, or you only exit when SL is triggered, or target is achieved? 1:00:52 
  5. Do you have any pyramiding strategy when entering into position, or you enter full position on breakout day/level? 1:02:07
  6. Do you still buy/sell 3% from the boundary? Stop-loss on the boundary? 1:02:28
  7. What do you think about using of Fibonacci and also the using of it for reentry during long position in the type 3 and 4 breakout. 1:03:08
  8. Do you take profits when reaching target? Some stocks seem to keep running and that means giving up extra profits. 1:03:59
  9. Is the reentry point usually at the same level as the original breakout? 1:04:30
  10. Would you consider a set up in PEP as a possible two patterns 1) Rectangle and 2) cup and handle as well is FDX both H/S and cup and handle. 1:05:21
  11. What order types do you prefer? 1:05:51
  12. What risk/reward level you see most successful? 1:06:14
  13. On inverse H&S, I guess on H&S as well, your pattern negating level is sometimes too big to use as a stop loss, won't a stop loss just below the 200MA work better? 1:06:45 
  14. What was the gain-loss ratio during last year of your strategy? 1:07:18 
  15. Does it concern you to place a stop order. I have heard that the market makers will try and hit your stops. 1:07:58
  16. During a parabolic advance, the break of the parabola could mean an 80% correction. How do you draw the parabolas? Do you think BTC and ETH have broken their parabolas? 1:08:34
  17. Can Cup and Handle formation act as continuations, upward reversals or both? 1:09:08
  18. Do you care about the number of stock shares number and check the same fundamentals data? 1:09:42 
Recorded live 05.20.21 Read More

4 Types of Breakouts and How To Trade Them – March 2021 Tech Charts Webinar

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4 Types of Breakouts and How To Trade Them - March 2021 Tech Charts Webinar We are continuing our Member webinar series with the types of breakouts a chart pattern can experience. In the following webinar, we will review the 4 types of breakouts that chart patterns experience and how to manage each one. Webinar Outline
  • Review of chart pattern statistics and discussion on chart pattern reliability
  • 4 types of breakouts and examples on each breakout situation
  • How to manage open trades with each type of breakout
  • 4 types of breakouts (hard re-test, re-test, failed breakouts, breakouts without any pullback)
  • Review of latest chart pattern setups
  • Member Q&A
Live questions from Members Question 1: When you post ideas on Twitter, where can I find them on the member's site? 56:21 Question 2: Do you use stops and how do you set them? Also, would you look at trailing stops to exit a position? 57:12 (LINK: ATR Trailing Stop-Loss - H&S Top) Question 3: Do you invest in any volatility futures, Aksel? If so, what is your strategy in terms of technical analysis since even the futures themselves could be extremely volatile? Can this be covered in the Tech Charts report? 57:44  Question 4: Is the Rectangle pattern similar to a Flag pattern? 58:35 Question 5: Which broker do you use that provides you to trade HK, Canada, South Africa, and Turkey stocks? 59:04 Question 6: You showed in a weekly chart that for H&S top failed breakdown, exceeding the negation level is enough, or don't you prefer to see the weeks closing in order to be sure it's a failed breakdown as you prefer for daily charts? 59:59 Question 7: How do you decide on the price level of horizontal lines? To be more specific, in the daily scale of a chart, let's say if 5 bars are reaching the bottom horizontal line of a rectangle pattern, and all their close and low price levels are different even though the prices so close to each other, how do you decide on the bottom horizontal lines price level? Do you consider the lowest closing price level or average or median of lows, etc? 01:01:06 Question 8: Do you use the gap strategy in your trades? If so, do you have success percentage of those (for the price coming back to the level of the gap)? 01:01:53 Question 9: Could you give your opinion on Silver futures or SLV at this time? 01:02:38 Question 10: Does using a trailing stoploss create problems during pullback? How do you deal with that? 01:03:04 Question 11: The double bottoms that keep forming in various charts do they qualify as eve & eve or eve & adam? Would they qualify for bottom reversals or continuations? Can you explain them in comparison to cup & handle? 01:04:05 Question 12: Do you use cycle analyses in selecting stocks? 01:05:22 Recorded live 03.11.2021     Read More

Morphology and Cup & Handle continuation

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Chart Pattern Statistics, H&S continuation and H&S failures – December 2020 Tech Charts Webinar

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Chart Pattern Statistics, H&S continuation and H&S failures - December 2020 Tech Charts Webinar

We are continuing our Member webinar series with several important and frequently asked topics. Given that the topics are different concepts in technical analysis/classical charting and trading, each section will have a +/- 10 min presentation followed by Q&A on that section.

Webinar Outline
  • Review of chart pattern statistics and discussion on chart pattern reliability / Q&A
  • Current market conditions and review of major benchmarks/important chart pattern developments / Q&A
  • A frequently asked chart pattern, H&S continuation and review of H&S failures and how to trade them / Q&A
  • A typical day for me, the daily routine, selection of markets, review and research tips / Q&A
  • Additional Q&A
Live questions from Members Concept One 2:30
  1. No Questions 
Concept Two 16:45
  1. I wanted to know more about log scale and how to set targets using it. For instance, I have seen some chartist giving two targets for H&S, one for each scale. 28:44
  2. Where do you usually set your "stop loss" in the H&S bottom/continuation? Is it the negation level, or do you use other criteria? 30:35
  3. Do you use the 200 SMA or Exponential & why? Any other moving average you use? 32:11
  4. Could you provide another example or two for setting the H&S target? Do we measure from the neckline to the bottom of the lowest candle body in the head, or to a wick? 33:31
  5. Do you always get out of 100% of your trade when it gets to its objective? Or do you switch to a trailing stop? 33:47
Link of interest Concept Three 34:15
  1. On the last chart, it didn't look the H&S pattern had been completed by breaching the neckline, so why is it a H&S failure? (Possibly page 17 or 18.) 49:09
  2. How did you calculate the H&S failure price target on page 19? 50:21
  3. In the H&S bottom with NON-Horizontal neckline (neckline with slope), how do you measure the price target? 51:03
  4. If you wait for the closing price for the breakout signal, how do you decide the trigger price? 51:38
  5. Are you discounting the validity of vertical necklines against the horizontal ones? 52:35
  6. How do you handle spindles? By using Stop Close Only orders? 53:28
  7. If a stocks breaks down and then reverses and goes above the right shoulder, is that a H&S failure? 54:26
Concept Four 55:05
  1. In this BTC Monthly chart, in the log scale, do you see "Cup & Handle" with a neckline at $13,880? 1:05:00
  2. How do you look at Netflix now? 1:06:16
  3. How did you set the target about the sym triangle in slide 30? from the first point? 1:06:53
  4. Do you ever take any help from any indicator while identifying the chart patterns? 1:07:32
  5. Please check GH & KO in you have time 1:08:35
  6. With weekly patterns the chart validation points usually have much wider risk; what % of NAV risk for each position do you use for weekly and what for daily patterns breakouts? 1:08:44
Concept Five 1:11:33
  1. In the US Marker review, for example, I am assuming you are not going chart by chart and have a certain criteria "as starting point" to pick your charts. Do you mind sharing your criteria (if any)? 1:16:24  
  2. Vacation? 1:17:49
  3. Can you explain a bit more about how you use volatility to identify possible patterns? I'm not sure how you review so many stocks! 1:18:05
  4. Do you scan charts by industry? 1:20:14
  5. Do you enter orders during 1 hour before the close? 1:20:41
  6. Would you elaborate a bit further about cases that you can open a position intraday, and do you keep stops during weekends? 1:21:20 
Additional questions 1:23:44
  1. The filter I find useful is the MA 18 weekly rather EMA 200 . What do you think about it? 1:23:45
  2. Could you suggest about position size strategy? 1:24:27
  3. I know you previously mentioned about sending a report on Chinese stocks. Are you still planning to do so - thanks for all you do. 1:25:17
  4. Aren't Keltner channels more useful than Bollinger bands? After all, Keltner is based on ATRs -- actual price ranges, not just the moving average close which Bollinger uses? 1:25:42
  5. Do you think the volume of stocks is relevant for the pattern success ratio? 1:26:31
Link of interest Recorded live 12.03.2020   Read More