While global equity markets and commodities are experiencing sharp corrections, an underperforming commodity in the grains complex, wheat started breaking out of its range. Latest technical action is similar to the earlier breakout that wheat experienced in the summer of 2010. In July-August period it took 4 weeks for wheat prices to rally 60% after the breakout. Wheat is […]
USD/TL chart tells us 1.75-1.76 is strong support and unless broken on the downside dollar will continue to stay strong against Turkish Lira. Over the past week, USD/TL rebounded from 1.75 for the third time in the past 7 months. 1.75-1.76 area is long-term horizontal support and also a strong support level for the 200 day […]
U.S. dollar continues to gain strength against emerging market currencies. I’ve analyzed several bullish dollar charts in the past and USD/BRL was one of them. Over the past few weeks we have seen a fast move in USD/BRL, breaking above 1.92; inverted H&S pattern’s neckline. This resulted in a spike towards 2.0 levels and it is […]
Yesterday’s trading session pushed the Volatility Index higher and CBOE VIX breached the important resistance at 22 levels. This is an important breakout as VIX is now above the inverted Head & Shoulder pattern neckline. Higher VIX signals weakness for equities in the intermediate term. Please note that inverted H&S pattern price target is 30. 22 level will now become […]
VIX is the ticker symbol for the Chicago Board Options Exchange Market Volatility Index, a popular measure of the implied volatility of S&P 500 index options. Often referred to as the fear index or the fear gauge, it represents one measure of the market’s expectation of stock market volatility over the next 30 day period. […]
The longer it takes for a chart pattern to develop, the more significant it becomes. Breakout from a long-term base formation should be respected. U.S. dollar has been gaining strength against some of the emerging market currencies over the past one year. Though we haven’t experienced a major shift from emerging market currencies to U.S. dollar, reversal chart […]
EUR/USD continues to consolidate in a tight range between 1.33 and 1.305. Over the past 3 months currency pair formed a contracting range (symmetrical triangle) that is likely to be followed by a strong trend period. As we get closer to the apex of the triangle formation, probability of breaking out in one direction is […]
It has been a busy week with several economic data releases. However it’s not over yet! Today market expects U.S. Q1 GDP. Expectation is to be around 2.5%. 4Q’11 was at 3%. Over the past few days housing data and jobless claims were disappointing. A the back of news flow from Euro Zone (disappointing Italian bill auction yesterday and […]
We are getting closer to exciting times in financial markets. In several asset classes we are likely to see sharp movements in the following days/weeks. Low volatility suggests strong moves for the upcoming weeks. USD/TRY was one of the cross rates that I analyzed back in February. http://techcharts.wordpress.com/2012/02/13/us-dollar-turkish-lira-usdtl/ At that time the currency pair was […]
Symmetrical triangles are usually regarded as “continuation patterns”. This very common technical chart pattern contains at least two lower highs and two higher lows. Trend lines converge and take the symmetrical triangle shape. Though symmetrical triangles often mark a continuation of the trend, they sometimes mark major trend reversals. A safe way to analyze and […]
