After a long break let me start with updating the latest economic data on housing and unemployment. I think these are the two most important economic data that we should be watching closely over the next few months. Housing because it is the latest bubble that burst and it was the cause of the global financial turmoil. […]
Fewer Americans than forecast filed first-time claims for unemployment insurance payments last week. Applications for jobless benefits decreased by 26,000 in the week ended July 7 to 350,000, the fewest since March 2008, Labor Department figures showed today. Even though the sharp drop is reflecting the volatility of applications during the annual auto-plant retooling period, it […]
Followers of Tech Charts blog will remember my earlier analysis on Soy Meal which was posted in March. Soy Meal had one of the best technical chart patterns; symmetrical triangle. It was a long-term chart pattern which made it even more significant. http://techcharts.wordpress.com/2012/03/05/soy-meal-3/ Soy Meal broke out of its long-term consolidation at 370 levels in March […]
In U.K. the Monetary Policy Committee led by Governor Mervyn King raised its asset-purchase target by 50 billion pounds ($78 billion) to 375 billion pounds and said the purchases will take four months to complete. Separately, the European Central Bank cut its key interest rate below 1 percent for the first time and China lowered […]
Another update is on the long and medium term Coffee charts. One month from the last update Coffee has found support at the lower boundary of the long-term trend channel and rebounded sharply. http://techcharts.wordpress.com/2012/06/01/coffee-3/ Before we identify the direction of the next medium/long-term trend, Coffee is likely to consolidate between 200 levels (200 day moving average) and 160 […]
In this post I’m analyzing two long-term commodity charts from the meat complex. Charts above are continuous prices for Live Cattle and Feeder Cattle. Both charts had strong breakouts from their long-term consolidation ranges. Feeder cattle and Live cattle prices broke out of 6 year-long consolidation periods in the beginning of 2011. Feeder cattle breached 120 levels and Live cattle 104 levels. […]
Since my last update on Natural Gas price moved higher and reached the important resistance area between 2.75 and 2.80. Earlier analysis discussed the possibility of a head & shoulder bottom reversal. http://techcharts.wordpress.com/2012/06/18/natural-gas-3/ Natural gas is now closer to a decisive price action. A breakout above 2.75-2.80 will confirm the head and shoulder bottom and […]
High volatility in May is followed by a calm period in June. After the sharp sell-off in almost all asset classes during May we are now seeing short-term rebounds. Even though some commodities, equity indices and currency pairs are resuming their slide. MSCI Emerging Markets is a widely followed index that found support in the beginning of June. Index rebounded from an extremely critical level. MSCI EM formed […]
Housing starts in U.S. fell 4.8% in May. Total starts dropped 4.8 percent to a 708,000 annual pace in May from a revised 744,000 rate in the prior month that was the highest since October 2008, today’s report showed. Building permits increased 7.9 percent to a 780,000 annual rate, reflecting gains in single-family and multifamily […]
Natural gas had a strong rebound from 2.2 levels. It recorded +10% gain in one day. Price formed a perfect symmetry after finding support at 2.2 levels, a requirement for a head and shoulder pattern. Now we have symmetrical Left and Right shoulders. Confirmation of the inverted head and shoulder pattern will be a decisive break […]
