Multi-year low volatility reading on the U.S. dollar index suggests strong directional movement in the following weeks/months. U.S. dollar index tested the strong support level for the 5th time over the past two years and a breakdown below this support level at 79.5 could push the U.S. dollar index towards 75 levels. Unless we see another rebound from the […]
Strong breakouts are likely on these two commodities in the following weeks. Both Brent Crude oil and Palladium reached multi-year low volatility levels. Volatility is cyclical. Low volatility periods are usually followed by high volatility and vice versa. Charts below show Brent Crude Oil ETF trading in London and Palladium cash price. Breakout above 73 levels on […]
Over the past few weeks we have seen stability in the Turkish equity and currency markets. Turkey started outperforming the MSCI Emerging markets index after its massive underperformance. MSCI Turkey/MSCI Emerging Markets ratio rebounded from multi-year support. This is positive news for the Turkish equities and this trend should resume. Meanwhile recovery in the emerging […]
Are emerging markets really weak? There are outflows from the emerging markets but how are their equity market performances so far? Are their long-term uptrends challenged? Has there been significant technical damage during the latest so-called weakness? If a market is holding above its long-term moving average (200-day moving average), I classify this a uptrend. Likewise, if […]
U.S. ADP January payroll change smallest since August at 175,000. U.S. employment increased by 175K private sector jobs in January. Data updated on a monthly basis. Thursday: U.S. weekly jobless claims data. Data updated on a weekly basis. These two data series become more important as FED starts tapering program. U.S. weekly jobless claims and ADP Employment (total […]
February will be an important month for currencies and especially for the U.S. dollar. U.S. dollar index rebounded from the lower boundary of its 2 year-long consolidation for the 4th time and now the index is challenging the minor resistance at 81.50 levels. Similar breakouts resulted in a strong U.S. dollar in the first half […]
From politics to its financial markets and its currency, news flow on Turkey has been negative. Can the financial markets in Turkey return to stability? I’d like to draw attention to an interesting correlation between BIST 100 and the relative performance ratio between Industrial sector and BIST 100 index. Relative performance ratio is calculated by dividing the Industrial index (XUSIN) to […]
Parabolic moves are common in the financial markets. They are widely participated (though not anticipated). During these type of moves volatility increases tremendously. Similar to a ball thrown in the air, once they run out of energy they fall back with the same speed. Below are four different chart examples with similar price actions. Frome a technical perspective all […]
Below are two updated charts on an earlier theme I discussed on this blog. Relative performance ratio between 2 year government bond yields and 10 year government bond yields is breaking above a critical threshold and repeating the same cycle of late 2011. Short-term yields are outperforming the long-term yields and the selling pressure remains intact on the equity […]
In financial markets trying to pick tops and bottoms has always been costly. Predicting the beginning of a larger scale correction or a uptrend is not only difficult but also a low probability bet. High probability set-ups are the ones when you have confirmation. Trade-off is that confirmations don’t come at the very early stages of a trend. As a result, to […]
