REAL, RUBLE and RUPEE

Here are some of the emerging market currencies that I see vulnerable against the U.S. dollar in the medium/long-term. U.S. dollar had a strong rally against major cross rates and most of the emerging market currencies. In the short-term we might be due for a pull-back and some weakness for the U.S. dollar but in the medium/long-term we should keep a close eye on these EM currencies.

Brazilian real is weakening towards 2.45 levels. Last one years’ move formed a sideways consolidation. Breakout above 2.45 will be negative for BRL.

I drew attention to the earlier breakout on the Peruvian Nuevo Sol. This was a nice ascending triangle with the resistance at 2.82. Resistance becomes the new support.

Indonesian Rupiah is forming a consolidation right below the decade-long horizontal resistance. Breakout above 12,400 will cause long-term damage on this cross-rate.

Indian Rupee  held above the 3 year-long trend line. This shows that the uptrend is still intact. Unless we see USD/INR establishing a move below its 200-day average, I would favor USD against the Indian Rupee.

Russian Ruble continues its slide against the U.S. dollar. Resistance at 36.50 became support. Unless price falls below 36.50, this chart is poised for higher levels.