Tag Archive for: Webinar

Chart Pattern Statistics, H&S continuation and H&S failures - December 2020 Tech Charts Webinar

We are continuing our Member webinar series with several important and frequently asked topics. Given that the topics are different concepts in technical analysis/classical charting and trading, each section will have a +/- 10 min presentation followed by Q&A on that section.

• Review of chart pattern statistics and discussion on chart pattern reliability / Q&A
• Current market conditions and review of major benchmarks/important chart pattern developments / Q&A
• A frequently asked chart pattern, H&S continuation and review of H&S failures and how to trade them / Q&A
• A typical day for me, the daily routine, selection of markets, review and research tips / Q&A
• Additional Q&A

1. No Questions 

1. I wanted to know more about log scale and how to set targets using it. For instance, I have seen some chartist giving two targets for H&S, one for each scale. 28:44
2. Where do you usually set your "stop loss" in the H&S bottom/continuation? Is it the negation level, or do you use other criteria? 30:35
3. Do you use the 200 SMA or Exponential & why? Any other moving average you use? 32:11
4. Could you provide another example or two for setting the H&S target? Do we measure from the neckline to the bottom of the lowest candle body in the head, or to a wick? 33:31
5. Do you always get out of 100% of your trade when it gets to its objective? Or do you switch to a trailing stop? 33:47

• Moving Averages - Tech Charts video

1. On the last chart, it didn't look the H&S pattern had been completed by breaching the neckline, so why is it a H&S failure? (Possibly page 17 or 18.) 49:09
2. How did you calculate the H&S failure price target on page 19? 50:21
3. In the H&S bottom with NON-Horizontal neckline (neckline with slope), how do you measure the price target? 51:03
4. If you wait for the closing price for the breakout signal, how do you decide the trigger price? 51:38
5. Are you discounting the validity of vertical necklines against the horizontal ones? 52:35
6. How do you handle spindles? By using Stop Close Only orders? 53:28
7. If a stocks breaks down and then reverses and goes above the right shoulder, is that a H&S failure? 54:26

1. In this BTC Monthly chart, in the log scale, do you see "Cup & Handle" with a neckline at $13,880? 1:05:00
2. How do you look at Netflix now? 1:06:16
3. How did you set the target about the sym triangle in slide 30? from the first point? 1:06:53
4. Do you ever take any help from any indicator while identifying the chart patterns? 1:07:32
5. Please check GH & KO in you have time 1:08:35
6. With weekly patterns the chart validation points usually have much wider risk; what % of NAV risk for each position do you use for weekly and what for daily patterns breakouts? 1:08:44

1. In the US Marker review, for example, I am assuming you are not going chart by chart and have a certain criteria "as starting point" to pick your charts. Do you mind sharing your criteria (if any)? 1:16:24  
2. Vacation? 1:17:49
3. Can you explain a bit more about how you use volatility to identify possible patterns? I'm not sure how you review so many stocks! 1:18:05
4. Do you scan charts by industry? 1:20:14
5. Do you enter orders during 1 hour before the close? 1:20:41
6. Would you elaborate a bit further about cases that you can open a position intraday, and do you keep stops during weekends? 1:21:20 

1. The filter I find useful is the MA 18 weekly rather EMA 200 . What do you think about it? 1:23:45
2. Could you suggest about position size strategy? 1:24:27
3. I know you previously mentioned about sending a report on Chinese stocks. Are you still planning to do so - thanks for all you do. 1:25:17
4. Aren't Keltner channels more useful than Bollinger bands? After all, Keltner is based on ATRs -- actual price ranges, not just the moving average close which Bollinger uses? 1:25:42
5. Do you think the volume of stocks is relevant for the pattern success ratio? 1:26:31

• Van Tharp’s Definitive Guide to Position Sizing – Van Tharp

• RE-ENTRY strategy after an out of line movement or hard re-test. We will try to understand how to navigate volatile price action around pattern boundaries. Followed by Q&A
• Differences between Stop-loss and Chart pattern negation levels.
• Volatility (Average True Range and Bollinger Bands).
• 200-day average, how to utilize it as a trend-following tool.
• ATR based trailing stop-loss and its application on chart pattern breakouts.
• Follow-up Q&A

• Are there any situations in which you'd enter a trade immediately upon breakout, rather than waiting for the daily close? How about the opposite -- are there situations where you might wait a little longer after a breakout to buy? 25:09
• Do head and shoulders with sloping necklines as reliable as the ones with flat necklines? 27:25

1. Would you ignore breakout from chart patterns happening far away from 200dma? 36:47
2. Except 200 dma, ATR trailing stop loss, which other indicators you use (if you use) for confirmation of a breakout? 37:35
3. Is the 200 dma simple or exponential? What are the pros & cons of one compared to the other? 38:54 
4. Why the 200EMA and not the 200SMA? 39:20
5. Would you track the crossing over of the 50 DMA and 200 DMA? 39:51
6. EMA on Weekly or Monthly also? 40:05

• ATR Trailing Stop-Loss – H&S Top
• Breakout with a pullback – Application of ATR trailing stop-loss 
• Moving Averages

1. You use volatility bandwidth instead of bands? 56:05
2. What is the ATR minimum target you will use for bullish or bearish breakouts? 56:31
3. What period of EMA would be reasonable to apply on the ATR to identify the volatility. I'm asking this because the volatility usually doesn't change by large amounts in forex. 57:08
4. Similarly, what is the BB width do you use for bullish or bearish breakouts? 57:48 (Recommended Reading List) 
5. Can you apply these same practices to predicting breakdowns for shorting? 58:18

1. Do you use these patterns mainly for stocks/equities or futures/options as well? If yes, then how do you manage the risk for F&O? 58:35
2. Has Brent crude oil broken downwards from a wedge pattern today? 59:14  
3. Please post charts of the companies listed in the US when you post it when listed in Asia or any other country. For example, when you post a chart for Dr.Reddy's Lab, India listed is also listed in the US under ticker RDY along with the chart for Dr. Reddy's, etc. 59:26
4. Do you use price charts with adjusted dividend data or without adjusted dividend data. What is the reason preferring one over another? 1:01:26   
5. Why don't you use volumes in your charts? Can you please explain the reasons? 1:03:14
6. While trading in forex, the 3% breakout rule doesn't seem to apply. Are you aware of any specific measure which could be followed in forex like in terms of pips or percentage? 1:05:24
7. Just like me, your methods of based heavily on the classical methods on TA. Do you use any automation to scan for classical pattern s on Metastock? I don't think that such automation to scan classical pattern is possible -- and on the other h and, manual flipping of charts is extremely time-consuming. 1:06:10
8. Do you use that ATR Trailing in MetaStock with a special indicator? 1:07:50 (ATR trailing stop-loss plug in for MetaStock) 
9. How did you determine the best stoploss ATR? 1:08:46
10. When is the best time to enter a trade? Just a few minutes before the closing or the day after at opening? 1:09:25
11. Do you check the relation between volume and the price when deciding to enter or exit the position? 1:10:41
12. Why do you like Metastock rather than other websites? Any strong reasons? 1:11:16