LEAD Archives | Tech Charts

One of the strongest bull markets in the metal complex is about to end. Tin is highly used in electronics. It is mixed into solder for circuitry in smartphones. Tin is used in everyday life in almost all electronic item. Notebooks, tablets, smartphones… Chart pattern suggests prices are headed for lower levels as we have seen some major breakdowns over the past year. Both the uptrend that has been intact since 2002 and the medium-term sideways consolidation (symmetrical triangle) have broken down. Unless we see a recovery above 21K levels, price could sell-off towards 15K-12K area in the following months. I have also added other industrial metals such as Lead, Aluminum and Copper. Both Copper and Tin are likely to join the weakness in other industrial metals.

Industrial metals remain to be an emerging market story. 3 year and 5 year weekly rolling correlations show high correlation between the MSCI Emerging market index and most of the industrial commodities. As expected there is also high correlation between the industrial metals. Zinc, Copper and Lead are high correlated industrial metals.

3 YEAR WEEKLY ROLLING CORRELATION

5 YEAR WEEKLY ROLLING CORRELATION

Since mid-2011, most of the industrial metals had lackluster performance. Sideways/downwards price movements were similar to the MSCI Emerging Market index. Charts are suggesting that we are getting closer to the end of the medium/long-term consolidation periods. Lead, Zinc and Tin are completing their contracting ranges and breakouts should occur in the following months. Over the past few weeks Nickel had a strong run but it is still below its downward trend resistance. Both Aluminum and Nickel performed worse than Lead, Zinc and Tin. Breakouts on these industrial metals could result in a 3-4 year-long directional movements. Global growth and emerging market performances will depend on the direction of the breakouts in these industrial metals.