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DJIA, RUSSELL 2000, ACWI

This was another strong week for global equities. Both MSCI ALL COUNTRIES WORLD INDEX and MSCI EMERGING MARKETS INDEX finished the week with strong weekly candlesticks, opening at the lower end and closing at the highest level for the week.

ISHARES MSCI ALL COUNTRIES WORLD INDEX ETF (ACWI.O)

The MSCI ACWI captures large and mid cap representation across 23 developed markets and 23 emerging markets countries. With 2,486 constituents, the index covers approximately 85% of the global investable equity opportunity set. The iShares MSCI ACWI ETF seeks to track the investment results of the MSCI ACWI. The ETF is listed in the NYSE. Price chart of the iShares MSCI ACWI ETF shows the strong uptrend that started in the beginning of 2016. Year-long upward sloping trend line will act as support between 59 and 59.50 area. Until the long-term trend line is violated we should expect higher levels for the global equity benchmark.

ISHARES ACWI ETF - WEEKLY SCALE

ISHARES ACWI ETF – WEEKLY SCALE

ISHARES MSCI EMERGING MARKETS ETF (EEM)

ISHARES MSCI EMERGING MARKETS ETF had a strong week. Over the past three weeks strength in the emerging markets pushed the NYSE listed iShares MSCI EM ETF from 34 levels to 36.68 levels. Last week’s price action possibly completed a double bottom. If EEM manages to hold above 36.40 levels in the following weeks, next price target could be the September 2016 high at 38.20 levels.

ISHARES EM ETF - WEEKLY SCALE

ISHARES EM ETF – WEEKLY SCALE

DJIA & RUSSELL 2000 INDEX (.DJI & .RUT)

Almost everyone who follows the financial news network must have come across the 20,000 level for the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Below chart shows the significance of the 20,000 level from a technical perspective. 20,000 has now become a short-term technical resistance other than a psychological one. Similar chart development can be seen on the Russell 2000 index. Both indices formed month-long flag consolidations. For Russell 2000, the short-term resistance stands at 1,390 levels. Flags are bullish continuation chart patterns.

DJIA - DAILY SCALE

DJIA – DAILY SCALE

RUSSELL 2000 INDEX - DAILY SCALE

RUSSELL 2000 INDEX – DAILY SCALE

#TECHCHARTSALERT

Below are the charts that generated chart pattern breakout signals during this week.

VOLKSWAGEN AG (VOWG.DE)

VOLKSWAGEN had a strong weekly close and the stock cleared the year-long horizontal resistance at 144.50 levels. Breakout above the horizontal resistance possibly completed a year-long ascending triangle that can act as a bottom reversal. Price target for the bullish chart pattern stands at 178 levels. 144.50 should act as support.

VOLKSWAGEN - WEEKLY

VOLKSWAGEN – WEEKLY

SANCHEZ ENERGY CORP. (SN)

SANCHEZ ENERGY completed an 8 month-long rectangle continuation chart pattern with the strong weekly breakout. Rectangle price target stands at 13.60 levels. 9.55 should act as support.

SANCHEZ ENERGY - WEEKLY SCALE

SANCHEZ ENERGY – WEEKLY SCALE

FAURECIA (EPED.PA)

FAURECIA after its 4th test, cleared a year-long horizontal resistance and completed an ascending triangle that can act as a bottom reversal. Ascending triangle price target stands at 47 levels. 37.30 levels should act as support.

FAURECIA - WEEKLY SCALE

FAURECIA – WEEKLY SCALE

DUBAI FINANCIAL MARKET GENERAL INDEX (.DFMGI)

UAE’S DUBAI FINANCIAL MARKET GENERAL INDEX completed a 9 month-long rectangle chart pattern with the strong weekly close above 3,620 levels. Strong horizontal resistance was tested for 4 times over the past 9 months. Rectangle chart pattern price target stands at 4,040 levels. 3,620 levels should act as support.

DFMGI - WEEKLY SCALE

DFMGI – WEEKLY SCALE

 #TECHCHARTSWATCHLIST

Below are the charts that are added to the TECH CHARTS WATCHLIST.

888 HOLDINGS (888.L)

888 HOLDINGS is a provider of online gaming entertainment and solutions. The stock is listed in the UK. Price chart of the 888 HOLDINGS formed a year-long rectangle with the strong resistance standing at 233.5 levels. Stock had a strong breakout in the first quarter of 2016 and since then the price has been in a sideways consolidation. According to Edwards and Magee 3% breakout guideline, for confirmation of the breakout price should close above 240.65 levels.

888 HOLDINGS - WEEKLY SCALE

888 HOLDINGS – WEEKLY SCALE

BOOKER GROUP (BOK.L)

BOOKER GROUP is a consumer non-cyclical company listed in the UK. The company offers a range of grocery, tobacco, alcoholic products and other products. Price chart of BOOKER GROUP formed a year-long ascending triangle. Strong horizontal resistance stands at 187.5 levels. The horizontal boundary was tested for 4 times over the past year. Breakout above 187.5 can push the stock to all-time high levels. A daily close above 194 levels is required for confirmation.

BOOKER GROUP - WEEKLY SCALE

BOOKER GROUP – WEEKLY SCALE

CSPC PHARMA (1093.HK)

CSPC PHARMACEUTICAL GROUP is a healthcare company listed in the Hong Kong Stock exchange. Stock price formed a 2 year-long rectangle with the strong horizontal resistance standing at 8.60 levels. Latest consolidation below the upper boundary of the rectangle can be a preparation for an upward breakout. A daily close above 8.85 levels will confirm the breakout from this massive sideways consolidation. It is important to note that the breakout will push the stock to all-time high levels.

CSPC PHARMA - WEEKLY SCALE

CSPC PHARMA – WEEKLY SCALE

CGI GROUP (GIB)

CGI GROUP is a technology company listed in the NYSE. Stock price formed an 8 month-long ascending triangle with the strong horizontal resistance standing at 50.20 levels. Over the past 8 months CGI GROUP tested 50-50.2 area for six times. Breakout above 50.20 levels will push the stock to all-time high levels. A daily close above 51.70 levels will confirm the breakout from the bullish continuation chart pattern.

CGI GROUP - WEEKLY SCALE

CGI GROUP – WEEKLY SCALE

OWENS-ILLINOIS INC (OI)

OWENS ILLINOIS INC is a basic materials company listed in the NYSE. The company is engaged in the manufacturing of glass containers. Stock price of OWENS ILLINOIS formed a 7 month-long symmetrical triangle with the upper boundary standing at 19.70 levels. Symmetrical triangles are usually considered continuation chart patterns. A daily close above 20.10 levels will confirm the breakout from the symmetrical triangle.

OWENS ILLINOIS - WEEKLY SCALE

OWENS ILLINOIS – WEEKLY SCALE

NH INVESTMENT & SECURITIES CO (005940.KS)

NH INVESTMENT & SECURITIES CO, formerly WOORI INVESTMENT & SECURITIES CO, is a Korea-based financial service provider specialized in the investment banking and securities markets. The stock price of the company formed a massive year-long complex head and shoulder bottom with the neckline standing at 10,860 levels. Strong horizontal resistance was tested for 4 times over the past year. Breakout above 10,860 can complete the long-term bottom and suggest higher prices in 2017. A daily close above 11,185 levels will confirm the breakout.

NH INVEST & SEC - WEEKLY SCALE

NH INVEST & SEC – WEEKLY SCALE

DOW JONES COMPOSITE INDEX

Dow Jones Averages are price weighted indices, while most of the broad market indices such as S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 are market-cap weighted. In a price-weighted index higher prices will influence the direction of the average more than lower prices, regardless of the actual size of the company.

Dow Jones Composite Index measures changes within the 65 companies that make up three Dow Jones averages: the 30 stocks that form the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), the 20 stocks that make up the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and the 15 stocks of the Dow Jones Utility Average (DJUA). The Dow Jones 65 Composite, like the three sub-indexes, is price-weighted.

Over the past two years Dow Jones Composite Index has formed a top formation usually regarded as Head & Shoulder. Head and shoulder chart pattern forms after a prolonged uptrend and signals a possible change in trend. Chart pattern is confirmed with the breakdown of the neckline. Similar chart patterns can be seen on some of the constituents of the top US indices. If not in the next few weeks, the first quarter of 2016 we can see some corrective price action on these charts. Confirmation of such price movement will be a decisive break below horizontal support levels (neckline).

DOW JONES COMP INDEX

GS

UPS

AAPL

SMALL CAPS vs. LARGE CAPS

Small caps show relative weakness vs. the large caps when investors move out of riskier/high-beta names and into relatively safe large caps. Opposite can be said during small cap strength vs. large caps.

There are two ways to capture this relationship to understand if there is a possibility of small cap outperformance in the following weeks.

1) Russell 2000 vs DJIA is now testing a 6 year-long trend line support. Until it is broken down, these type of trend lines are expected to resume the current trend. In this case the trend is upwards and the ratio is likely to rebound from the long-term support, resulting in an outperformance for the small caps.

RUSSELL VS DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL

Data Source: Thomson Reuters, Charts created in MetaStock

2) Russell 2000 vs. S&P 500 index is now testing the lower boundary of the horizontal trading range. A rebound from the lower boundary will likely result in an outperforming period for Russell 2000 index versus the S&P 500 index.

RUSSELL VS S&P 500

Data Source: Thomson Reuters, Charts created in MetaStock

DOW JONES TRANSPORT and UTILITIES

I’m not a big fan of diagonal support/resistances. I like horizontal and clearly defined support/resistance levels on price charts. Especially horizontal support and resistance levels on the weekly and monthly scale charts. However, current price action and the outlook on the U.S. indices is worth mentioning. Most of the major Dow Jones indices are rebounding from trend channel supports.

Trend channel support is more reliable for the Dow Jones Utilities index as the lower boundary of the trend channel was tested several times over the past 5 years.

DOW JONES UTILITIES INDEX

 

Dow Jones Transportation index is trying to rebound from trend channel support.

DOW JONES TRANSPORTATION INDEX

 

Dow Jones Composite index which is a combination of Industrials, Transportation and Utilities is also finding support at the lower boundary of its trend channel.

DOW JONES COMPOSITE INDEX