GLOBAL EQUITY MARKETS – March 21, 2020

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The benchmark for the Global equity markets performance, the iShares MSCI All Country World Index ETF (ACWI.O) after testing its 200-day average for a very short period, resumed its downtrend. Sharp sell-offs can be followed by sharp rebounds. It is important where the next consolidation is going to take place. So far the ETF experienced sharp sell-off with out any rebound. Support area between 61-64 area is broken down and will act as resistance during any rebound. The minor low of 2016 stands as the next support at 49 levels. I will continue to monitor short-term price charts for a possible bottom reversal chart pattern. Patterns I’m looking for are double bottom, rectangle and H&S bottom.

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S&P 500 INDEX AND U.S. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (%)

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Every week Tech Charts Global Equity Markets report features some of the well-defined, mature classical chart patterns under a lengthy watchlist and the chart pattern breakout signals that took place during that week. Global Equity Markets report covers single stocks from developed, emerging and frontier markets, ETF’s and global equity indices. The report starts with a review section that highlights the important chart developments on global equity benchmarks. This blog post features from the review section the S&P 500 Index and U.S. Unemployment Rate %.

Global economies are going through difficult times. Below I discuss a possibility. In 2011, I wrote a blog post when Global equities were recovering from the 2007-2008 financial melt-down. I analyzed the Unemployment rate with the S&P 500 Index. You can read the blog post here U.S. Unemployment Rate (%) 2011 Blog Post. Since 2011, the unemployment rate remained in a steady downtrend and reached significantly low levels. We are now seeing discussions about Global recession. I refer to my charts to understand the possibility of it taking place in current environment.

The recent sell-off on S&P 500 Index found support at 2018 minor lows (2,460). I’m weighing the possibility of a multi-month long H&S top. If such scenario taking place we are likely to spend the rest of 2020 by forming the right shoulder of the multi-month long top reversal. Stock market is always regarded as a leading indicator for economic activity. When we put the two charts together, the U.S. unemployment rate and the S&P 500 Index, a top reversal would coincide with a bottom on unemployment rate. Please note that these are monthly scale price charts and it can take several months for reversals to take place. And also please note that this is not a forecast. I view this as a possibility. As I get new evidence, I will update these charts.

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As a Premium Member of Aksel Kibar’s Tech Charts,

You will receive:

  • Global Equities Report. Delivered weekly.
  • Classical charting principles. Learn patterns and setups.
  • Actionable information. Worldwide indices and stocks of interest.
  • Risk management advice. The important trading points of each chart.
  • Information on breakout opportunities. Identify the ones you want to take action on.
  • Video tutorials. How patterns form and why they succeed or fail.
  • Watch list alerts. As they become available so you can act quickly.
  • Breakout alerts. Usually once a week.
  • Access to everything (now and as it becomes available)
    o Reports
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GLOBAL EQUITY MARKETS – March 14, 2020

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The benchmark for the Global equity markets performance, the iShares MSCI All Country World Index ETF (ACWI.O) after testing its 200-day average for a very short period, resumed its downtrend. Sharp sell-offs can be followed by sharp rebounds. It is important where the next consolidation is going to take place. Price clearly is settling below the 200-day average. The sell-off in 2018 reversed from 61 levels. This week the ETF tested 61 levels and rebounded. 61-64 area is also a support formed by the lower boundary of a possible uptrend channel. Here are the questions I’m looking answers for in the coming weeks: Will the markets find a bottom here? If yes, are we going to see some sort of bottom reversal chart patterns on short-term price charts? A double bottom, a rectangle reversal, a H&S bottom? Is there a possibility of a V-reversal bottom similar to 2018? A V-reversal bottom will be the most difficult to analyze and profit from. In that case I will turn to individual stocks to find orderly consolidations for breakout opportunities.

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GLOBAL EQUITY MARKETS – March 7, 2020

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The benchmark for the Global equity markets performance, the iShares MSCI All Country World Index ETF (ACWI.O) rebounded to test its 200-day moving average at 76.45 levels. The 200-day average acted as resistance. It is important where the next consolidation is going to take place. If price settles below the 200-day average, forming it as a resistance, we can see further downside similar to late 2018. Until I see price stabilizing above the 200-day average, I will monitor this chart for further weakness and volatility.

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FLAG AS A MEASURING PATTERN

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The flag forms on a mast, a nearly vertical price movement, either up or down. The length of the mast (in points) from the preceding congestion to the point where the Flag begins to form, will be found to indicate in by far the great majority of the cases the extent of the rapid price movement which proceeds from the last reversal point in the Flag. The price projection by using this half mast technique will give us the possible price target but does not call for a reversal of trend when the price objective is met.

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DIAGONAL VS. HORIZONTAL BREAKOUTS

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GLOBAL EQUITY MARKETS – February 29, 2020

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The benchmark for the Global equity markets performance, the iShares MSCI All Country World Index ETF (ACWI.O) failed at the minor high at 81.4 levels. The reversal started with a gap opening and took the ETF way below major support levels. The week closed off its lows but the weekly candlestick has done significant damage to short and long-term price charts. We might see a sharp rebound. 74.8 which is the horizontal boundary can act as resistance on the way up. Until I see price stabilizing above the 200-day average, I will monitor this chart for further weakness and volatility. Is a V-bottom reversal in the cards? A good example was in the beginning of 2019.

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ISHARES MSCI ALL COUNTRY WORLD INDEX ETF

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Every week Tech Charts Global Equity Markets report features some of the well-defined, mature classical chart patterns under a lengthy watchlist and the chart pattern breakout signals that took place during that week. Global Equity Markets report covers single stocks from developed, emerging and frontier markets, ETF’s and global equity indices. The report starts with a review section that highlights the important chart developments on global equity benchmarks. This blog post features from the review section the iShares MSCI All Country World Index ETF (ACWI.O) as a measure of Global Equity Markets performance.

The benchmark for Global Equity Markets performance reversed from all-time highs at 81.4 levels. In the last quarter of 2019, the ACWI ETF experienced two important breakouts. One of them was clearing the horizontal resistance at 74.8 levels which completed a 2 year-long H&S continuation, the other one was to breakout above 2018 highs at 77.5 levels. Since mid-January (first news of coronavirus), the ETF has experienced sharp corrections. The first sell-off pulled the ETF towards 77.5 levels which was followed by a recovery to 81.4 levels. The rebound failed at the previous high and this time another sell-off followed, pulling the ETF back to previous resistance/support area between 74.8 and 77.5 levels.

The ACWI ETF will try to stabilize around the support area. It will be important for ACWI ETF to recover and stabilize above its 200-day average. Failure to do so can put the support at 74.8 in danger, resulting in a larger scale correction and a possible change in trend. It is important to note that the last candlestick on the weekly scale price chart includes two days of trading (Monday & Tuesday). The weekly candle can look much different by the end of the week.

Tech Charts Membership

By becoming a Premium Member, you’ll be able to improve your knowledge of the principles of classical charting.

With this knowledge, you can merge them with your investing system. In fact, some investors use my analyses to modify their existing style to invest more efficiently and successfully.

Get Access Now

As a Premium Member of Aksel Kibar’s Tech Charts,

You will receive:

  • Global Equities Report. Delivered weekly.
  • Classical charting principles. Learn patterns and setups.
  • Actionable information. Worldwide indices and stocks of interest.
  • Risk management advice. The important trading points of each chart.
  • Information on breakout opportunities. Identify the ones you want to take action on.
  • Video tutorials. How patterns form and why they succeed or fail.
  • Watch list alerts. As they become available so you can act quickly.
  • Breakout alerts. Usually once a week.
  • Access to everything (now and as it becomes available)
    o Reports
    o Videos and video series
  • Multi-part webinar course. You learn the 8 most common charting principles.
  • Webinars. Actionable and timely advice on breaking out chart patterns.

For your convenience your membership auto renews each year.

Get Access Now

GLOBAL EQUITY MARKETS – February 22, 2020

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The benchmark for the Global equity markets performance, the iShares MSCI All Country World Index ETF (ACWI.O) found resistance at the minor high at 81.4 levels. The high at 81.4 is not yet broken on the upside and we can still see further sideways consolidation between 77.5 and 81.4.  The 200-day moving average is still far from the price at 76.45 levels. Without much interpretation, we can conclude that the chart of of ACWI ETF is showing a clear uptrend. During pullbacks 76.45-77.5 area will act as support.

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INTERIM UPDATE – February 19, 2020

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I start my research on Mondays and finalize by end of day Thursday. Friday is dedicated to putting all ideas to the report format. During the week I come across good setups and those are featured in the weekly report. However, there are those that pop during the week and is worth bringing to your attention before the week finalizes. Below are 5 additions to Tech Charts watchlist that may experience breakouts. These charts will also be included in the weekly update.

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