US Dollar is gaining strength against developed and emerging market currencies. Some believe that US economy is not strong and its currency can’t appreciate in value while others argue that what happened in 2008 can repeat and a massive de-leveraging can increase demand for the dollar. I’m in the second camp. As I go through my charts I’ve been seeing more and more […]
Spread between WTI Crude Oil and Brent Crude is likely to tighten in the following months. Sharp reversal was seen at 2009 low levels (0.76). Ratio could revert back to parity from extreme readings.
India’s Sensex Index might be forming a major top reversal (Head & Shoulder Top) in the past two years. The length of the distribution period makes this pattern significant. 3 important technical levels showing strong resistance at 18,000 levels. These are; 200 day moving average, horizontal resistance (green line) and the downtrend channel. H&S pattern will […]
The chart above shows the 10 year yield on French government debt in the past 5 years. Question is: with yields reaching 3.7 levels how long can France keep its AAA rating? If this is a double bottom formation we can expect yields reaching 4.8 in the following weeks.
Symmetrical triangle is one of the common technical chart pattern that we see on almost every time frame on a price chart. It is easy to spot on a price chart and usually followed as a continuation pattern (consolidation before the trend resumes). The two charts above analyze similar symmetrical triangle patterns on Intel and […]
The chart above shows the continuous contract for Light Crude Oil. 200 day moving average and last 6 month’s downward trend (green line) are both strong resistance at $93 level. Light Crude formed a bearish wedge that could give way to another leg of sell-off towards $70-$75 range. Rebound has been weak and choppy which a clear pullback […]
Head and Shoulder is a common technical analysis chart pattern that helps us identify major reversals. An inverted H&S would signal a base formation and should be regarded as a bullish development on the price chart. While H&S top is a bearish chart pattern that signals further weakness in price. Rough Rice which lagged most of the agricultural commodities’ […]
In the last two weeks we have seen sharp sell-off in commodities and equities. Some asset classes were hit harder than the others. I’ve adjusted my trend channel on the commodity index. 200 day moving average is now short/intermediate term resistance at 660 level. On the weekly scale the commodity index rebounded from the lower boundary of […]
Will the unemployment rate in U.S. decline towards 6% in the following years? Here is a quote from Warren Buffett: “The U.S. unemployment rate could fall to as low as 6% within a few years. In an interview on Bloomberg TV, Buffett said the U.S. will come back big time on employment when residential […]
Here is a chart of US 10 Year Treasury Notes. The chart is plotted on a weekly scale and analyzes the past decade. Long term trend lines worked perfect. In the second half of 2007 T-Notes broke out of a four-year long downtrend at 108 level and rallied towards 120 and then towards 130 level. Since the beginning […]
