U.S. dollar gained strength against major currencies in the last quarter of 2011. Will the strong performance of U.S. dollar continue in 2012? USD/CAD chart warns of a possible breakout in the beginning of 2012. 3 month-long symmetrical triangle shows consolidation of the currency pair but suggests a breakout is imminent. Given that the trend prior to […]
Source: S&P/Case-Shiller The S&P/Case-Shiller home price index tracks monthly changes in the value of residential real estate in 20 metropolitan regions across the U.S. The composite indexes and the regional indexes are seen by the markets as measuring changes in existing home prices and are based on single-family home re-sales. The key composite series tracked […]
While U.S. markets are showing relative strength versus Emerging Markets and Euro Zone, we are seeing different performances between the euro zone economies. Back door QE by the European Central Bank helped Spain and France but Portugal, Italy and Greece 10 Year Govt. yields are still at elevated levels. Germany having the best technical outlook is […]
“Risk OFF” or “Risk ON” ? Is this a bear market or a bull market? Are we in a recession or not? Are we headed for a double-dip or not? When opinions are too divided like this and everyday people have a tendency to change their market outlook from negative to positive and vice versa, it is called a corrective period. During […]
In August I analyzed the U.S. unemployment rate from a technical perspective. Technical analysts (Chartists), look at pure price information and analyze directional movement. In doing so, they use different technical indicators. Here I’m using 1&2 year moving averages to identify cross-overs. Unemployment in U.S. has peaked around 10% in October 2009 and since then […]
If stock markets are discounting mechanisms, China’s SSE 50 index is not giving us positive signals for the chinese economy and possibly for the global growth. At a time when almost everyone is expecting China to lead the global growth and help the rest of the world, weak stock market performance is telling the opposite… that China […]
When all the commodities experience sharp sell-off, this is reflected on the major commodity indices. One of the widely used commodity index is the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index. The weight of energy products in the index is higher when compared with the Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index. As a result changes in Crude Oil price has a larger impact on […]
Strength in U.S. dollar and weakness in global equities and commodities has been the theme for the past few months. U.S. dollar strength can be seen not only against Euro but against several emerging and developed market currencies. Technical chart patterns are extremely bullish for the dollar. One of those bullish patterns is the inverted head and shoulder […]
MACD divergences are great tools to anticipate trend reversals. They are the first warning signal to show the weakness in momentum. When combined with technical support/resistance levels their message could be extremely valuable. Dow Jones Industrial Average has been ranging between 12,800 and 10,600 levels for the past 8 months. MACD warned us before every major market reversal. In July, in October and now… Dow […]
The longer price stays below the 200-day moving average the harder it gets for the long-term trend to reverse and the price to move back above the resistance areas. This could be the case for most of the equity markets as major equity indices are now forming consolidation ranges below their long-term moving averages. Bearish outlook […]
