Earlier during the month I wrote about CBOE VIX. Volatility is a good measure of market sentiment. Historical chart studies show 3 important levels for CBOE VIX. 50 level has been an extreme pessimism in the equity markets and 9 & 15 levels; extreme optimism. Over the past 5 years VIX couldn’t break below 15 levels. As a result, […]
Jobless claims rose by 4,000 for a second week to reach 372,000 in the period ended Aug. 18. Unemployment has been above 8 percent since February 2009 – – the longest stretch in the post-World War II era. Last week I drew attention to the loss of momentum on the U.S. Jobless Claims data. There […]
Low volatility periods are usually followed by high volatility and vice versa. Strong agricultural commodity prices are taking a breather but looks like trends are not over. Short-term sideways consolidations and low volatility ranges suggest upward breakouts and continuations. Soy Meal is one of the agricultural commodity that has been consolidating over the past one […]
Metals have been one of the exciting areas as we got closer to the end of this week. Precious metals moved higher and challenged important resistances. First, we saw a major breakout on Platinum followed by Palladium. Low volatility range breakouts are usually very powerful and are followed by strong moves. While a surge in volatility can […]
Here is an update on major currency pairs including U.S. dollar index, GBP/USD, EUR/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CAD and USD/CHF. CURRENCIES (PDF Document) Highlights: U.S. dollar index continues to hold above its intermediate-term trend. Best intermediate-term trading opportunity will present itself on GBP/USD. AUD/USD & NZD/USD might have another leg up. USD/JPY might be forming a major […]
Will Coffee price reverse its decade-long uptrend or is this another major medium-term low? We are looking for an answer to this question. I attached two charts of Coffee price, one with a long-term view and the other with a medium-term. Coffee is testing the lower boundary of its 10 year-long upward trend channel. A break […]
Yesterday’s data on housing and unemployment supported my view on weakening trends on both economic indicators. It is important to note that we are getting closer to a major long-term resistance on the housing starts data. Since 1966, 850,000 level has been a major support. During the latest downturn, hosing starts fell below this level. […]
McDonald’s was one of the first stocks that entered a major uptrend after breaking out of a massive symmetrical triangle. Breakout from a widely recognized chart pattern (symmetrical triangle) resulted in a 3 year-long uptrend. McDonald’s is now forming another popular technical chart formation; head and shoulder top. Head and shoulder patterns are not confirmed until price breaks down the […]
On the 4th of July I analyzed the feeder and live cattle charts from a long-term perspective. Both commodities had perfect breakouts from their long-term consolidation ranges and formed consistent uptrends. http://techcharts.wordpress.com/2012/07/04/feeder-cattle-live-cattle/ Over the past few weeks the medium-term uptrend on feeder cattle has reversed after it completed a double top chart pattern and broke down […]
Thomas Bulkowski (author of encyclopedia of Chart Patterns) defines an ascending broadening wedge as a reversal chart pattern. An ascending broadening wedge has two upward sloping trend lines; the top one has a slightly steeper slope than the bottom one. Together, the two trend lines spread out over time but both slope upward. Once prices pierce the bottom […]
