Tech Charts blog followers will remember the earlier analysis on Soybeans forecasting a strong directional move. Low volatility is usually followed by high volatility. Volatility does not have direction but it is cyclical. With this week’s sell-off Soybeans broke down two important technical support; the 200 day moving average and the year-long trend support. Short-term […]
Lumber price hits strong resistance at 327 levels and is likely to pull back. Horizontal support/resistance levels provide valuable information on the supply and demand relationship. Lumber is an important commodity for the housing market. Over the past three years prices have been consolidating in a wide range between 150 and 330 levels. Higher lows on the price chart shows increasing […]
Will EUR/USD manage to hold above its 200-day moving average? I have updated EUR/USD chart earlier during October. http://techcharts.wordpress.com/2012/10/12/eurusd-5/ Since then, cross rate continued to consolidate above its long-term average. While the direction of the next trend period is not clear yet, failure to rebound from this strong support area is a warning signal for euro weakness. Over […]
Soybeans are close to a strong directional move. Since the dry summer conditions ended prices have reversed sharply and pulled back to their 200 day moving average. Soybeans found resistance between 1,664-1,800 area in August and formed a double top chart pattern which was broken down at 1,600 level in September. Prices are now consolidating above […]
U.S. government bonds are likely to rebound at the back of a risk-off environment. Weak commodities and equities helped cash and cash equivalents to gain strength over the past week. U.S. 5 year note provides good risk/reward in the short-term as it found support at a strong technical level and also rebounded with an outside […]
Commodities are selling off. From energy to metals we have seen widespread weakness in commodities at the back of global growth concerns. Since March 2011, S&P GSCI has been in a downtrend forming wide swings. Feb 2012 peak was lower than the April 2011 and Sept 2012 peak was lower than Feb 2012. This resulted in a […]
After a dry summer and a global scale drought, agricultural commodity prices moved higher resulting in returns in excess of 30%. From those, wheat and corn were sharply higher when compared with other soft commodities like coffee, cocoa, cotton & sugar. Sharp spike in wheat prices pushed the agricultural commodity from 600 to 950 levels in less than two months. Wheat price reached 947 levels […]
Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me… Jobless claims increased by 46,000 to 388,000 in the week ended Oct. 13 from a revised 342,000 the prior period that was the lowest since February 2008. This was recorded as a sharp reversal on our charts and with 388K, initial jobless claims is now above […]
I’m sure everybody read the critics on how the data on job numbers were misleading or totally wrong. While the expectation was 8.2% for the month of September, unemployment rate was reported as 7.8%. A sharp drop! Leaving all the conspiracy theories aside, this data was exactly what we needed to resume the downtrend in jobless claims and improve […]
Did euro reverse its 2 year-long downtrend? EUR/USD broke down its long-term moving average in September 2011. Since then it has been trending below the 200 day moving average with one exception in October 2011, which was a 3 day spike above the long-term average and was not a valid breakout. In July 2012, EUR/USD reached […]
