Chart Pattern Statistics, H&S continuation and H&S failures – December 2020 Tech Charts Webinar

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Chart Pattern Statistics, H&S continuation and H&S failures – December 2020 Tech Charts Webinar

We are continuing our Member webinar series with several important and frequently asked topics. Given that the topics are different concepts in technical analysis/classical charting and trading, each section will have a +/- 10 min presentation followed by Q&A on that section.

Webinar Outline

  • Review of chart pattern statistics and discussion on chart pattern reliability / Q&A
  • Current market conditions and review of major benchmarks/important chart pattern developments / Q&A
  • A frequently asked chart pattern, H&S continuation and review of H&S failures and how to trade them / Q&A
  • A typical day for me, the daily routine, selection of markets, review and research tips / Q&A
  • Additional Q&A

Live questions from Members

Concept One 2:30

  1. No Questions 

Concept Two 16:45

  1. I wanted to know more about log scale and how to set targets using it. For instance, I have seen some chartist giving two targets for H&S, one for each scale. 28:44
  2. Where do you usually set your “stop loss” in the H&S bottom/continuation? Is it the negation level, or do you use other criteria? 30:35
  3. Do you use the 200 SMA or Exponential & why? Any other moving average you use? 32:11
  4. Could you provide another example or two for setting the H&S target? Do we measure from the neckline to the bottom of the lowest candle body in the head, or to a wick? 33:31
  5. Do you always get out of 100% of your trade when it gets to its objective? Or do you switch to a trailing stop? 33:47

Link of interest

Concept Three 34:15

  1. On the last chart, it didn’t look the H&S pattern had been completed by breaching the neckline, so why is it a H&S failure? (Possibly page 17 or 18.) 49:09
  2. How did you calculate the H&S failure price target on page 19? 50:21
  3. In the H&S bottom with NON-Horizontal neckline (neckline with slope), how do you measure the price target? 51:03
  4. If you wait for the closing price for the breakout signal, how do you decide the trigger price? 51:38
  5. Are you discounting the validity of vertical necklines against the horizontal ones? 52:35
  6. How do you handle spindles? By using Stop Close Only orders? 53:28
  7. If a stocks breaks down and then reverses and goes above the right shoulder, is that a H&S failure? 54:26

Concept Four 55:05

  1. In this BTC Monthly chart, in the log scale, do you see “Cup & Handle” with a neckline at $13,880? 1:05:00
  2. How do you look at Netflix now? 1:06:16
  3. How did you set the target about the sym triangle in slide 30? from the first point? 1:06:53
  4. Do you ever take any help from any indicator while identifying the chart patterns? 1:07:32
  5. Please check GH & KO in you have time 1:08:35
  6. With weekly patterns the chart validation points usually have much wider risk; what % of NAV risk for each position do you use for weekly and what for daily patterns breakouts? 1:08:44

Concept Five 1:11:33

  1. In the US Marker review, for example, I am assuming you are not going chart by chart and have a certain criteria “as starting point” to pick your charts. Do you mind sharing your criteria (if any)? 1:16:24  
  2. Vacation? 1:17:49
  3. Can you explain a bit more about how you use volatility to identify possible patterns? I’m not sure how you review so many stocks! 1:18:05
  4. Do you scan charts by industry? 1:20:14
  5. Do you enter orders during 1 hour before the close? 1:20:41
  6. Would you elaborate a bit further about cases that you can open a position intraday, and do you keep stops during weekends? 1:21:20 

Additional questions 1:23:44

  1. The filter I find useful is the MA 18 weekly rather EMA 200 . What do you think about it? 1:23:45
  2. Could you suggest about position size strategy? 1:24:27
  3. I know you previously mentioned about sending a report on Chinese stocks. Are you still planning to do so – thanks for all you do. 1:25:17
  4. Aren’t Keltner channels more useful than Bollinger bands? After all, Keltner is based on ATRs — actual price ranges, not just the moving average close which Bollinger uses? 1:25:42
  5. Do you think the volume of stocks is relevant for the pattern success ratio? 1:26:31

Link of interest

Recorded live 12.03.2020

 
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GLOBAL EQUITY MARKETS – December 5, 2020

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Announcement:

Dear Tech Charts Members,

We had our member webinar on Thursday Dec 3rd. If you couldn’t attend the live webinar, a recording will be available in the next few days. All members webinars and educational videos are posted under the page Educational Videos. Once it is uploaded to the page we will send an e-mail notification. Please feel free to ask any questions by e-mailing aksel@techcharts.net

REVIEW

The benchmark for the Global equity markets performance, the iShares MSCI All Country World Index ETF (ACWI.O) resumed its uptrend after completing a rectangle chart pattern. Breakout took place above 84.15, the upper boundary of the rectangle which is now a short-term support. Possible chart pattern price target stands at 91 levels. During any pullback 84.15 will act as support. The 200-day moving average, which I utilize as a trend filter, is rising as well, now at 78.7 levels.

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CUP & HANDLE CONTINUATION – EKINOPS SA (EKI.PA) 

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Every week Tech Charts Global Equity Markets report features some of the well-defined, mature classical chart patterns under a lengthy watchlist and the chart pattern breakout signals that took place during that week. Global Equity Markets report covers single stocks from developed, emerging and frontier markets, ETF’s and global equity indices. The report starts with a review section that highlights the important chart developments on global equity benchmarks. This blog post features from the watchlist section Ekinops SA listed on the Paris Stock Exchange.

EKINOPS SA (EKI.PA)

Ekinops SA is a France-based company engaged in the provision of optical transport solutions for service providers and private networks. The Company develops optical aggregation and transportation sub-systems for metropolitan and long-distance networks. The stock is listed on the Paris Stock Exchange. Price chart formed an 11 month-long cup & handle continuation  with the horizontal boundary acting as strong resistance at 6.60 levels. The horizontal boundary was tested several times over the course of the chart pattern. A daily close above 6.80 levels will confirm the breakout from the 11 month-long cup & handle continuation  with the possible chart pattern price target of 8.8 levels. (Data as of 30/11/2020)

A short educational video on Cup & handle continuation chart pattern

Tech Charts Membership

By becoming a Premium Member, you’ll be able to improve your knowledge of the principles of classical charting.

With this knowledge, you can merge them with your investing system. In fact, some investors use my analyses to modify their existing style to invest more efficiently and successfully.

Get Access Now

As a Premium Member of Aksel Kibar’s Tech Charts,

You will receive:

  • Global Equities Report. Delivered weekly.
  • Classical charting principles. Learn patterns and setups.
  • Actionable information. Worldwide indices and stocks of interest.
  • Risk management advice. The important trading points of each chart.
  • Information on breakout opportunities. Identify the ones you want to take action on.
  • Video tutorials. How patterns form and why they succeed or fail.
  • Watch list alerts. As they become available so you can act quickly.
  • Breakout alerts. Usually once a week.
  • Access to everything (now and as it becomes available)
    o Reports
    o Videos and video series
  • Multi-part webinar course. You learn the 8 most common charting principles.
  • Webinars. Actionable and timely advice on breaking out chart patterns.

For your convenience your membership auto renews each year.

Get Access Now

GLOBAL EQUITY MARKETS – November 28, 2020

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Announcement:

Dear Tech Charts Members,

We are continuing our Member webinar series with several important and frequently asked topics. In the following webinar, we will follow a similar approach as the last webinar. Given that the topics are different concepts in technical analysis/classical charting and trading, each section will have a +/- 10 min presentation followed by a Q&A on that section.

Scheduled for: Thursday, December 3rd, 8:30 am mountain (register below)

Webinar Outline

  • Review of chart pattern statistics and discussion on chart pattern reliability
  • Current market conditions and review of major benchmarks/important chart pattern developments
  • A frequently asked chart pattern, H&S continuation and review of H&S failures and how to trade them
  • A typical day for me, the daily routine, selection of markets, review and research tips.

Regards,

Aksel Kibar, CMT

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Live Webinar and Q&A with Aksel – Thursday, December 3rd, 8:30 am mountain

/0 Comments/in /by

Dear Tech Charts Members,

We are continuing our Member webinar series with several important and frequently asked topics. In the following webinar, we will follow a similar approach as the last webinar. Given that the topics are different concepts in technical analysis/classical charting and trading, each section will have a +/- 10 min presentation followed by a Q&A on that section.

Scheduled for: Thursday, December 3rd, 8:30 am mountain (register below)

Read more

SYMMETRICAL TRIANGLE AND BTCUSD

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Every week Tech Charts Global Equity Markets report features some of the well-defined, mature classical chart patterns under a lengthy watchlist and the chart pattern breakout signals that took place during that week. Global Equity Markets report covers single stocks from developed, emerging and frontier markets, ETF’s and global equity indices. The report starts with a review section that highlights the important chart developments on global equity benchmarks, commodities, currencies and cryptocurrencies that might be in focus. This blog post features from the review section BTCUSD. Please note that this is a monthly scale price chart and the November price action (last candle) is still not completed. I’m featuring this chart to show the levels BTC is testing and to draw attention to a possible outcome with symmetrical triangle breakouts.

BTCUSD possibly completed a symmetrical triangle chart pattern on the long-term price chart. Symmetrical triangle is a chart pattern with diagonal boundaries. One difficulty with trading breakouts from diagonal boundaries is the fact that price, following the breakout can find resistance at the minor high. Whereas breakouts from chart patterns with horizontal boundaries usually clear all minor highs at the same time of the breakout.

The minor high for BTC stands at 19,666 levels. Question is, will BTC find resistance at the minor high before breaking out to all-time highs. Previous two breakouts took place after price found resistance and retraced from the minor highs. Chart pattern price target for BTC stands at 30K and with possibly a potential to move much higher, but now we need to focus on the price action around 19,666 levels.
Here is a short educational video that explains the importance of the minor high as resistance with symmetrical triangle breakouts.

Tech Charts Membership

By becoming a Premium Member, you’ll be able to improve your knowledge of the principles of classical charting.

With this knowledge, you can merge them with your investing system. In fact, some investors use my analyses to modify their existing style to invest more efficiently and successfully.

Get Access Now

As a Premium Member of Aksel Kibar’s Tech Charts,

You will receive:

  • Global Equities Report. Delivered weekly.
  • Classical charting principles. Learn patterns and setups.
  • Actionable information. Worldwide indices and stocks of interest.
  • Risk management advice. The important trading points of each chart.
  • Information on breakout opportunities. Identify the ones you want to take action on.
  • Video tutorials. How patterns form and why they succeed or fail.
  • Watch list alerts. As they become available so you can act quickly.
  • Breakout alerts. Usually once a week.
  • Access to everything (now and as it becomes available)
    o Reports
    o Videos and video series
  • Multi-part webinar course. You learn the 8 most common charting principles.
  • Webinars. Actionable and timely advice on breaking out chart patterns.

For your convenience your membership auto renews each year.

Get Access Now

GLOBAL EQUITY MARKETS – November 21, 2020

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REVIEW

The benchmark for the Global equity markets performance, the iShares MSCI All Country World Index ETF (ACWI.O) held on to its gains after completing a possible rectangle chart pattern. Breakout took place above 84.15, the upper boundary of the rectangle which is now a short-term support. Possible chart pattern price target stands at 91 levels. During any pullback 84.15 will act as support.

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GOLD MINERS – MARATHON GOLD CORP (MOZ.TO) 

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Every week Tech Charts Global Equity Markets report features some of the well-defined, mature classical chart patterns under a lengthy watchlist and the chart pattern breakout signals that took place during that week. Global Equity Markets report covers single stocks from developed, emerging and frontier markets, ETF’s and global equity indices. The report starts with a review section that highlights the important chart developments on global equity benchmarks. This blog post features from the watchlist section Marathon Gold Corp (Marathon) listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange.

With breakouts I like to confirm couple of things on price charts. When those conditions are met, I have higher conviction on the trade setup. Those are:

  1. A well-defined chart pattern with horizontal boundaries
  2. Several tests of chart pattern boundary before a breakout takes place
  3. If the chart pattern is a bullish setup, possibility of breakout taking place above the 200-day average (trend filter)
  4. Possibility of a breakout to all-time highs (path of least resistance)

Below chart is meeting all the above criteria and as a result it is a high conviction trade setup for me.

MARATHON GOLD CORP (MOZ.TO)

Marathon Gold Corp (Marathon) is a Canada-based company engaged in the acquisition, exploration and development of natural resource properties located in North America. The stock is listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange. Price chart formed a 3 month-long rectangle with the horizontal boundary acting as strong resistance at 2.60 levels. The horizontal boundary was tested several times over the course of the chart pattern. A daily close above 2.67 levels will confirm the breakout from the 3 month-long rectangle with the possible chart pattern price target of 3.13 levels.

Tech Charts Membership

By becoming a Premium Member, you’ll be able to improve your knowledge of the principles of classical charting.

With this knowledge, you can merge them with your investing system. In fact, some investors use my analyses to modify their existing style to invest more efficiently and successfully.

Get Access Now

As a Premium Member of Aksel Kibar’s Tech Charts,

You will receive:

  • Global Equities Report. Delivered weekly.
  • Classical charting principles. Learn patterns and setups.
  • Actionable information. Worldwide indices and stocks of interest.
  • Risk management advice. The important trading points of each chart.
  • Information on breakout opportunities. Identify the ones you want to take action on.
  • Video tutorials. How patterns form and why they succeed or fail.
  • Watch list alerts. As they become available so you can act quickly.
  • Breakout alerts. Usually once a week.
  • Access to everything (now and as it becomes available)
    o Reports
    o Videos and video series
  • Multi-part webinar course. You learn the 8 most common charting principles.
  • Webinars. Actionable and timely advice on breaking out chart patterns.

For your convenience your membership auto renews each year.

Get Access Now

GLOBAL EQUITY MARKETS – November 14, 2020

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REVIEW

The benchmark for the Global equity markets performance, the iShares MSCI All Country World Index ETF (ACWI.O) completed the short-term consolidation, possibly a bullish rectangle, on the upside . Breakout took place with a gap opening. Following the breakout the price pulled back to the support at 84.15 levels and rebounded. Price objective for the rectangle stands at 91 levels. During any pullback 84.15 will act as support.

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ISHARES S&P MID CAP 400 VALUE ETF (IJJ)

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Every week Tech Charts Global Equity Markets report features some of the well-defined, mature classical chart patterns under a lengthy watchlist and the chart pattern breakout signals that took place during that week. Global Equity Markets report covers single stocks from developed, emerging and frontier markets, ETF’s and global equity indices. The report starts with a review section that highlights the important chart developments on global equity benchmarks. This blog post features from the watchlist section the iShares S&P MID CAP 400 VALUE ETF (IJJ) listed on the New York Stock Exchange.

ISHARES S&P MID CAP 400 VALUE ETF (IJJ)

The Fund seeks investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of the S&P MidCap 400/BARRA Value Index. The Index consists of stocks from a broad range of industries. Uses a replication strategy to track the Index. The ETF is listed on the New York Stock Exchange. Price chart formed a 5 month-long rectangle with the horizontal boundary acting as strong resistance at 74.40 levels. The horizontal boundary was tested several times over the course of the chart pattern. A daily close above 76.60 levels will confirm the breakout from the 5 month-long rectangle with the possible chart pattern price target of 85.0 levels.

 

Tech Charts Membership

By becoming a Premium Member, you’ll be able to improve your knowledge of the principles of classical charting.

With this knowledge, you can merge them with your investing system. In fact, some investors use my analyses to modify their existing style to invest more efficiently and successfully.

Get Access Now

As a Premium Member of Aksel Kibar’s Tech Charts,

You will receive:

  • Global Equities Report. Delivered weekly.
  • Classical charting principles. Learn patterns and setups.
  • Actionable information. Worldwide indices and stocks of interest.
  • Risk management advice. The important trading points of each chart.
  • Information on breakout opportunities. Identify the ones you want to take action on.
  • Video tutorials. How patterns form and why they succeed or fail.
  • Watch list alerts. As they become available so you can act quickly.
  • Breakout alerts. Usually once a week.
  • Access to everything (now and as it becomes available)
    o Reports
    o Videos and video series
  • Multi-part webinar course. You learn the 8 most common charting principles.
  • Webinars. Actionable and timely advice on breaking out chart patterns.

For your convenience your membership auto renews each year.

Get Access Now