While U.S. markets are showing relative strength versus Emerging Markets and Euro Zone, we are seeing different performances between the euro zone economies. Back door QE by the European Central Bank helped Spain and France but Portugal, Italy and Greece 10 Year Govt. yields are still at elevated levels. Germany having the best technical outlook is […]
“Risk OFF” or “Risk ON” ? Is this a bear market or a bull market? Are we in a recession or not? Are we headed for a double-dip or not? When opinions are too divided like this and everyday people have a tendency to change their market outlook from negative to positive and vice versa, it is called a corrective period. During […]
In August I analyzed the U.S. unemployment rate from a technical perspective. Technical analysts (Chartists), look at pure price information and analyze directional movement. In doing so, they use different technical indicators. Here I’m using 1&2 year moving averages to identify cross-overs. Unemployment in U.S. has peaked around 10% in October 2009 and since then […]
If stock markets are discounting mechanisms, China’s SSE 50 index is not giving us positive signals for the chinese economy and possibly for the global growth. At a time when almost everyone is expecting China to lead the global growth and help the rest of the world, weak stock market performance is telling the opposite… that China […]
When all the commodities experience sharp sell-off, this is reflected on the major commodity indices. One of the widely used commodity index is the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index. The weight of energy products in the index is higher when compared with the Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index. As a result changes in Crude Oil price has a larger impact on […]
Strength in U.S. dollar and weakness in global equities and commodities has been the theme for the past few months. U.S. dollar strength can be seen not only against Euro but against several emerging and developed market currencies. Technical chart patterns are extremely bullish for the dollar. One of those bullish patterns is the inverted head and shoulder […]
MACD divergences are great tools to anticipate trend reversals. They are the first warning signal to show the weakness in momentum. When combined with technical support/resistance levels their message could be extremely valuable. Dow Jones Industrial Average has been ranging between 12,800 and 10,600 levels for the past 8 months. MACD warned us before every major market reversal. In July, in October and now… Dow […]
The longer price stays below the 200-day moving average the harder it gets for the long-term trend to reverse and the price to move back above the resistance areas. This could be the case for most of the equity markets as major equity indices are now forming consolidation ranges below their long-term moving averages. Bearish outlook […]
A long-term consolidation… A classical technical chart pattern (symmetrical triangle) and a strong technical support level… This chart would be a perfect fit for a text-book example. We will be looking for this commodity to find support at 270 levels. Wide trading range has contracted to as low as 100 points and now we are at the […]
Emerging market equities are showing weakness. Most of them are off of their 2011 high levels, below their long-term moving averages and in a downtrend. One example is Korea’s KOSPI Index. Weak and choppy rebound towards the 200-day moving average has formed a rising wedge (usually considered bearish). Meanwhile RSI hasn’t moved above the 50 levels (another bearish sign). When […]
