In November 2012, Japanese yen started weakening against the U.S. dollar. Cross rate started rising from 77 levels and reached 104 levels in almost six months. This was a sharp rally and was followed by a lengthy consolidation. Price action is cyclical. It will have high volatility, trend periods that are followed by low volatility, trading ranges. […]
This will be an important week for Crude oil. WTI crude oil continues to consolidate directly above the long-term symmetrical triangle. After its breakout above $98 levels and $104 levels, WTI crude oil formed a bullish chart pattern as part of the continuing uptrend. Short-term bullish flag is signaling a pause before the uptrend resumes. WTI should clear $109 levels to target $110-$115 area, […]
Earlier in May, Tech Charts blog followers read three different updates on the USD/INR suggesting strong U.S. dollar versus the Rupee (May 7, May 13, May 28). Since then the cross rate had a strong breakout and entered into a parabolic upward move. Over the past month price reached a strong trend channel resistance between 65 […]
Emerging markets are taking a hit with their bond, currency and equity markets. We are seeing clear technical damages on mainly emerging asia and the rest of the emerging markets. Two equity indices that show similarities are Thailand’s SET index and Turkey’s BIST 30 index. Both indices had strong uptrend between 2009 and 2013. They were the […]
Commodities have clearly underperformed equities over the past two years. This is due to correction in metals, already weak agricultural commodities and relatively quiet energy prices. None of the commodity index components had a strong enough trend to force the S&P GSCI out of its consolidation range, though signs show that this might be changing. […]
Year 2013 could mark the medium/long-term low for the U.S. weekly jobless claims. Over the past 4 years, jobless claims trended lower from 680K levels to 330K levels. This is a significant improvement given the magnitude of the historical swings on this economic time series data. U.S. weekly jobless claims reached an important trend support and if this trend […]
Cocoa prices might be forming a short/medium-term base at the long-term trend channel support. Cocoa had sharp and wide swings over the past decade. The uptrend remained intact as it can be seen from the upward sloping trend channel. In the beginning of 2011, price reversed from the upper boundary of the trend channel at 4,000 levels and reached […]
S&P GSCI (Commodity Index) is in a clear downtrend. Well-defined downward sloping trend line acts as strong resistance at 655 levels. Over the past two years trend line acted as strong resistance and each counter trend reaction reversed from the strong trend resistance. It is now clear that a breakout above this technical level will reverse the […]
May 2013 recorded the low for the Turkish 10 year government bond yields. Year-long downtrend was reversed with the breakout above 7.2 levels. Yields broke above 1) downward sloping trend line at 7.0 2) flat horizontal resistance at 7.2 and 3) 200-day moving average at 7.1. Sharp rally carried the yields to 9.5 levels. Since […]
Emerging market equities are challenging their long-term moving averages. Breakdown below these critical long-term support levels could result in sharp corrections. Since the first quarter of 2013 we have seen weakness in emerging market currencies and their equity indices. Thailand was one of the best performing emerging market over the past 4 years. Though a correction could be as […]
