COFFEE

Will Coffee price reverse its decade-long uptrend or is this another major medium-term low? We are looking for an answer to this question. I attached two charts of Coffee price, one with a long-term view and the other with a medium-term. Coffee is testing the lower boundary of its 10 year-long upward trend channel. A break below 158-148 area could reverse the long-term uptrend and push prices much lower in the medium term. Until we see a decisive break below 148-158 area we will expect the uptrend to resume. However, weekly close below 148 level would be a medium/long-term sell signal. If price can rebound from the support as it did in the previous tests, we will expect a spike towards the 200 day moving average, which is now strong resistance at 190 levels.

COFFEE (PDF Document)