US DOLLAR / TURKISH LIRA (USD/TRY)

We are getting closer to exciting times in financial markets. In several asset classes we are likely to see sharp movements in the following days/weeks. Low volatility suggests strong moves for the upcoming weeks.

USD/TRY was one of the cross rates that I analyzed back in February.

http://techcharts.wordpress.com/2012/02/13/us-dollar-turkish-lira-usdtl/

At that time the currency pair was testing 1.75-1.76 area (200 day moving average) and I was expecting a rebound. Rebound took USD/TRY to 1.8250 but it was short-lived. In the past one month currency pair consolidated in a tight range. Though still holding above the long-term moving average and the intermediate term trend support, USD/TRY should move in one direction sooner or later. Low volatility on the daily chart suggest high volatility is on its way… The direction is not clear yet but we should closely watch two important levels. 1.81 as a strong resistance and 1.7850 as a strong support. A break above 1.81 will push USD/TRY towards 1.85-1.90 area and a break below 1.7850 will target 1.75 in the short-term.