GLOBAL EQUITY MARKETS – July 1, 2017
REVIEW
Europe's equity benchmarks tested critical long-term resistances. After reversing from the multi-year trend line, Euro Stoxx 50 index pulled back to the lower boundary of its year-long trend channel. If the 2 month-long correction has run its course (still no sign of reversal), Europe's equity benchmark can possibly rebound from the lower boundary of its trend channel. During May 2017 the index tested 3,670 levels and since then retreated towards the lower boundary of its year-long trend channel. Failure to hold at the lower boundary of the trend channel can extend the duration of the corrective period.
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GLOBAL EQUITY MARKETS – June 24, 2017
REVIEW
MSCI decision was the main driver for the strong performance of Saudi Arabia stock index during the week. (Read more on this) Strong price action cleared the 5 month-long pennant and resumed the uptrend towards the double bottom price target at 8,250 levels. Saudi Arabia's positive chart pattern developments were discussed in the Interim Update June 19, 2017 and June 3, 2017 report. Double bottom is a bullish reversal chart pattern and pennant is a bullish continuation chart pattern.
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INTERIM UPDATE – June 19, 2017
On June 20, global equity index compiler MSCI will announce whether it is putting Saudi Arabia on a list for possible upgrade to emerging market status. Index firm FTSE will decide in September whether to make Riyadh a secondary emerging market. In late 2018, authorities aim to list national oil giant Saudi Aramco in Riyadh, selling about 5 percent in what is likely to be the world's biggest initial public offer of shares. Most fund managers think the index compiler is likely to put Riyadh on its review list on June 20. The actual decision on whether to include Saudi Arabia in MSCI's emerging market index would then occur in mid 2018, and if MSCI follows past procedures, inclusion would occur in mid 2019.
There is an estimated 1.6 trillion USD tracking MSCI EM, as of the end of June 2016. The inclusion assessment is based on the MSCI Market Classification Framework described in the MSCI Global Investable Market Index methodology. For Emerging Markets, the classification depends on two criteria: (1) whether the equity market meets minimum size and liquidity requirements and (2) whether it exhibits accessibility levels for international investors that are sufficient in the context of Emerging Markets.
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