GLOBAL EQUITY MARKETS – April 4, 2020

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REVIEW

The benchmark for the Global equity markets performance, the iShares MSCI All Country World Index ETF (ACWI.O) found resistance at 64 levels, the lower boundary of a possible upward trend channel. Support area between 61-64 area was broken down and now it is acting as resistance during the rebound. The minor low of 2016 stands as the next support at 49 levels. I will continue to monitor short-term price charts for a possible bottom reversal chart pattern. Patterns I’m looking for are double bottom, rectangle and H&S bottom. A re-test of the lows or another down leg to test 49 levels can offer a short/medium-term bottom opportunity. There is a gap opening between 55.5 and 57.2 levels. I will monitor next week, if any weakness develops, the GAP area as a possible support.

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SUPPORT & RESISTANCE

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Every week Tech Charts Global Equity Markets report features some of the well-defined, mature classical chart patterns under a lengthy watchlist and the chart pattern breakout signals that took place during that week. Global Equity Markets report covers single stocks from developed, emerging and frontier markets, ETF’s and global equity indices. The report starts with a review section that highlights the important chart developments on global equity benchmarks. This blog post features from the watchlist section a rectangle chart pattern that is listed on U.S. Exchange. The well-defined range can be utilized for trading opportunity between the boundaries until price experiences a confirmed breakout/breakdown. A link is provided here to learn more about Support and Resistances.

KULICKE AND SOFFA INDUSTRIES INC (KLIC.O)

Kulicke and Soffa Industries, Inc. designs, manufactures and sells capital equipment and expendable tools used to assemble semiconductor devices, including integrated circuits (ICs), high and low powered discrete devices, light-emitting diodes (LEDs) and power modules. The stock is listed on the Nasdaq Stock Exchange. Price chart formed a 2 year-long rectangle with the horizontal boundaries acting as strong support at 18.15 levels and resistance at 28.6 levels. Both boundaries were tested several times over the course of the chart pattern. A daily close below 17.6 levels will confirm the breakdown from the 2 year-long rectangle with the possible chart pattern price target of 11.6 levels. Until a breakdown takes place the stock can offer a trading opportunity between the wide range 18.15-28.6. A re-test of the previous low and the support area can form a short-term reversal chart pattern. The daily chart is added below. (Data as of March 27, 2020)

Tech Charts Membership

By becoming a Premium Member, you’ll be able to improve your knowledge of the principles of classical charting.

With this knowledge, you can merge them with your investing system. In fact, some investors use my analyses to modify their existing style to invest more efficiently and successfully.

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As a Premium Member of Aksel Kibar’s Tech Charts,

You will receive:

  • Global Equities Report. Delivered weekly.
  • Classical charting principles. Learn patterns and setups.
  • Actionable information. Worldwide indices and stocks of interest.
  • Risk management advice. The important trading points of each chart.
  • Information on breakout opportunities. Identify the ones you want to take action on.
  • Video tutorials. How patterns form and why they succeed or fail.
  • Watch list alerts. As they become available so you can act quickly.
  • Breakout alerts. Usually once a week.
  • Access to everything (now and as it becomes available)
    o Reports
    o Videos and video series
  • Multi-part webinar course. You learn the 8 most common charting principles.
  • Webinars. Actionable and timely advice on breaking out chart patterns.

For your convenience your membership auto renews each year.

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4 Types of Breakouts – March 2020 Tech Charts Webinar

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4 Types of Breakouts – March 2020 Tech Charts Webinar

We are continuing our Member webinar series with a review of 4 types of breakouts. 

Type 1 are breakouts that immediately rally to price target. Type 2 are breakouts that pullback to chart pattern boundary after the breakout but do not challenge the previously broken support/resistance. These two breakouts are relatively easier to manage when compared with the breakouts that experience a hard re-test (penetrating the chart pattern boundary after a breakout) and those that fail (Type 3 & Type 4).

We will review all 4 types of breakouts with recent examples and discuss strategies to manage each condition.

Webinar Outline

  • We will review some of those chart pattern breakouts that rally to their price objective without any pullback
  • We will review some of the breakouts that complete an orderly pullback to chart pattern boundary
  • We will look at some of the breakouts that experience hard re-test and challenge chart pattern boundaries
  • We will review some of the breakouts that failed off of the starting gate.
  • We will have a member Q&A at the end of the webinar.

Live questions from Members  

  1. I know you’re a classical market technician, but with such a severe one-sided breakdown, are you ever tempted to trade something for a pullback even though you don’t have a classical pattern? 36:21
  2. Does the speed with which a pattern breakout achieves the target price indicate that you should let the trade run? 37:24
  3. Can you find signs in the chart that could indicate what type of breakout is going to occur? 38:02
  4. Do you reduce your position sizing (i.e., instead of 1% risk per trade, 0.50% risk) during extended volatility like we’re seeing? 39:42
  5. Can you explain how to calculate the trailing stop loss again? 40:10
    1. Additional links ATR Trailing Stop-Loss – H&S Top & ATR plug-in
  6. How do you incorporate sentiment measures (COT DSI etc.) into your decision making? 40:48  
  7. Do you think that in market conditions such as these, the probability of a failed chart occurring is higher? 41:02
  8. Do you ever circumvent your ATR trailing stop and place it below a newly formed chart pattern negation level that’s above the initial entry position? 42:32
  9. I noticed that on one trade, you placed an SL at the bottom of a gap, but on another, you placed it at the top of a GAP. Do you have rules for deciding this? 43:50
  10. Is it possible to use this method for long term investing? If yes, would you use the same trailing method? 45:13
  11. Can the ATR stop rule be implemented in a trading platform? 46:19
  12. How do you determine your ATR length and multiplier number? Is it historical chart based and specific to a specific chart? Are commodities different than stock charts? 47:13
  13. As volatility during the day can be larger, have you used one ATR multiple for intra-bar & a lesser ATR multiple near the close, whereby one cancels the other OCO? 49:20
  14. Over the years, the ratio between reversal patterns vs. continuation patterns? Do you cap that ratio, or you let the patterns dictate what you have currently? 50:08
  15. Do you always trade long? Never short? 51:13

Recorded live 03.26.2020 

 
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GLOBAL EQUITY MARKETS – March 28, 2020

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The benchmark for the Global equity markets performance, the iShares MSCI All Country World Index ETF (ACWI.O) had a sharp rebound. 61 levels was the low that was recorded in late 2018. 64 levels is the lower boundary of a possible upward trend channel. Support area between 61-64 area was broken down and now it is acting as resistance during the rebound. The minor low of 2016 stands as the next support at 49 levels. I will continue to monitor short-term price charts for a possible bottom reversal chart pattern. Patterns I’m looking for are double bottom, rectangle and H&S bottom. A re-test of the lows or another down leg to test 49 levels can offer a short/medium-term bottom opportunity.

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Live Webinar and Q&A with Aksel – Thursday, March 26, 8:30 am mountain

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Dear Tech Charts Members,

We are continuing our Member webinar series with a review of 4 types of breakouts. Type 1 are breakouts that immediately rally to price target. Type 2 are breakouts that pullback to chart pattern boundary after the breakout but do not challenge the previously broken support/resistance. These two breakouts are relatively easier to manage when compared with the breakouts that experience a hard re-test (penetrating the chart pattern boundary after a breakout) and those that fail (Type 3 & Type 4).

We will review all 4 types of breakouts with recent examples and discuss strategies to manage each condition.

Scheduled for: Thursday, March 26th, 8:30 am mountain  (register below)

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GLOBAL EQUITY MARKETS – March 21, 2020

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The benchmark for the Global equity markets performance, the iShares MSCI All Country World Index ETF (ACWI.O) after testing its 200-day average for a very short period, resumed its downtrend. Sharp sell-offs can be followed by sharp rebounds. It is important where the next consolidation is going to take place. So far the ETF experienced sharp sell-off with out any rebound. Support area between 61-64 area is broken down and will act as resistance during any rebound. The minor low of 2016 stands as the next support at 49 levels. I will continue to monitor short-term price charts for a possible bottom reversal chart pattern. Patterns I’m looking for are double bottom, rectangle and H&S bottom.

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S&P 500 INDEX AND U.S. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (%)

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Every week Tech Charts Global Equity Markets report features some of the well-defined, mature classical chart patterns under a lengthy watchlist and the chart pattern breakout signals that took place during that week. Global Equity Markets report covers single stocks from developed, emerging and frontier markets, ETF’s and global equity indices. The report starts with a review section that highlights the important chart developments on global equity benchmarks. This blog post features from the review section the S&P 500 Index and U.S. Unemployment Rate %.

Global economies are going through difficult times. Below I discuss a possibility. In 2011, I wrote a blog post when Global equities were recovering from the 2007-2008 financial melt-down. I analyzed the Unemployment rate with the S&P 500 Index. You can read the blog post here U.S. Unemployment Rate (%) 2011 Blog Post. Since 2011, the unemployment rate remained in a steady downtrend and reached significantly low levels. We are now seeing discussions about Global recession. I refer to my charts to understand the possibility of it taking place in current environment.

The recent sell-off on S&P 500 Index found support at 2018 minor lows (2,460). I’m weighing the possibility of a multi-month long H&S top. If such scenario taking place we are likely to spend the rest of 2020 by forming the right shoulder of the multi-month long top reversal. Stock market is always regarded as a leading indicator for economic activity. When we put the two charts together, the U.S. unemployment rate and the S&P 500 Index, a top reversal would coincide with a bottom on unemployment rate. Please note that these are monthly scale price charts and it can take several months for reversals to take place. And also please note that this is not a forecast. I view this as a possibility. As I get new evidence, I will update these charts.

Tech Charts Membership

By becoming a Premium Member, you’ll be able to improve your knowledge of the principles of classical charting.

With this knowledge, you can merge them with your investing system. In fact, some investors use my analyses to modify their existing style to invest more efficiently and successfully.

Get Access Now

As a Premium Member of Aksel Kibar’s Tech Charts,

You will receive:

  • Global Equities Report. Delivered weekly.
  • Classical charting principles. Learn patterns and setups.
  • Actionable information. Worldwide indices and stocks of interest.
  • Risk management advice. The important trading points of each chart.
  • Information on breakout opportunities. Identify the ones you want to take action on.
  • Video tutorials. How patterns form and why they succeed or fail.
  • Watch list alerts. As they become available so you can act quickly.
  • Breakout alerts. Usually once a week.
  • Access to everything (now and as it becomes available)
    o Reports
    o Videos and video series
  • Multi-part webinar course. You learn the 8 most common charting principles.
  • Webinars. Actionable and timely advice on breaking out chart patterns.

For your convenience your membership auto renews each year.

Get Access Now

GLOBAL EQUITY MARKETS – March 14, 2020

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REVIEW

The benchmark for the Global equity markets performance, the iShares MSCI All Country World Index ETF (ACWI.O) after testing its 200-day average for a very short period, resumed its downtrend. Sharp sell-offs can be followed by sharp rebounds. It is important where the next consolidation is going to take place. Price clearly is settling below the 200-day average. The sell-off in 2018 reversed from 61 levels. This week the ETF tested 61 levels and rebounded. 61-64 area is also a support formed by the lower boundary of a possible uptrend channel. Here are the questions I’m looking answers for in the coming weeks: Will the markets find a bottom here? If yes, are we going to see some sort of bottom reversal chart patterns on short-term price charts? A double bottom, a rectangle reversal, a H&S bottom? Is there a possibility of a V-reversal bottom similar to 2018? A V-reversal bottom will be the most difficult to analyze and profit from. In that case I will turn to individual stocks to find orderly consolidations for breakout opportunities.

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GLOBAL EQUITY MARKETS – March 7, 2020

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The benchmark for the Global equity markets performance, the iShares MSCI All Country World Index ETF (ACWI.O) rebounded to test its 200-day moving average at 76.45 levels. The 200-day average acted as resistance. It is important where the next consolidation is going to take place. If price settles below the 200-day average, forming it as a resistance, we can see further downside similar to late 2018. Until I see price stabilizing above the 200-day average, I will monitor this chart for further weakness and volatility.

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FLAG AS A MEASURING PATTERN

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The flag forms on a mast, a nearly vertical price movement, either up or down. The length of the mast (in points) from the preceding congestion to the point where the Flag begins to form, will be found to indicate in by far the great majority of the cases the extent of the rapid price movement which proceeds from the last reversal point in the Flag. The price projection by using this half mast technique will give us the possible price target but does not call for a reversal of trend when the price objective is met.

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