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GLOBAL EQUITY MARKETS – March 24, 2018

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REVIEW

Both the iShares MSCI All Country World Index ETF and iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index ETF are headed towards their February lows. Next few weeks will be important as these two Global equity benchmarks will tell us if the 2 year-long uptrend in equities is over or not. Breakdown below long-term averages will also violate the lower boundary of steady upward trend channels. While the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets index has margin towards the strong support area, the iShares MSCI All Country World Index closed the week at the support level. Unless we see a stability above 70 levels, the ETF can correct towards the next support at 63 levels.

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GLOBAL EQUITY MARKETS – March 17, 2018

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REVIEW

To summarize the current technical outlook in the Global Equity markets, I would say "range-bound". Global Equity benchmark charts below show the boundaries of the recent consolidations. After the sharp sell-off in the first half of February, global indices are returning back to low volatility conditions. Both the iShares MSCI All Country World Index ETF (ACWI.O) and the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index ETF (EEM) are in a long-term uptrend. Both benchmarks are above their long-term averages. Latest consolidations are taking place above strong support areas.

  

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GLOBAL EQUITY MARKETS – February 17, 2018

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REVIEW

Global Equity Markets had a strong rebound from their long-term averages. A benchmark for Global equity market performance; the iShares MSCI All Country World Index ETF rebounded from its 200-day (40 week) average and the lower boundary of its multi-month long upward trend channel. Long-term uptrend remains intact. In the following weeks Global equity indices will possibly continue to consolidate in a range until volatility is back to lower levels. In case of a re-test of last week's lows, both the lower boundary of the uptrend and the long-term average will act as strong support levels.

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LOGARITHMIC vs. LINEAR SCALE CHARTING

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The weekly Global Equity Markets report now has a new section; TECH CHARTS STUDY. In this new section I try to answer member's questions on different aspects of classical charting and technical analysis. Members who are new to classical charting and technical analysis will have another resource other than the educational video series to learn from and apply this knowledge to their own analysis. The latest weekly report's Tech Charts Study section reviewed the difference between logarithmic and linear scale charting applied on Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM).

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GLOBAL EQUITY MARKETS – May 20, 2017

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The Russell 2000 Index is the recognized benchmark measuring the performance of the small-cap segment of the U.S. equity universe. The Russell 2000 Index is a subset of the Russell 3000 Index, representing approximately 10% of the total market capitalization of that index. It includes 2000 of the smallest securities based on a combination of market cap and current index membership. The index is maintained by FTSE Russell, a subsidiary of the London Stock Exchange Group. The Russell 2000 is by far the most common benchmark for mutual funds that identify themselves as "small-cap", while the S&P 500 index is used primarily for large capitalization stocks.

RUSSELL 2000 INDEX (.RUT)

Since the beginning of 2017, the small-cap segment of the U.S. equities had a volatile price action. The swings on the Russell 2000 index possibly formed a very rare chart pattern called a Broadening Top. Richard W. Schabacker in his book Technical Analysis and Stock Market Profits explains the Broadening Top chart pattern as below:

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GLOBAL EQUITY MARKETS – March 25, 2017

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Global equity markets continue to offer great opportunities and text book chart pattern developments. In this update I bring to your attention well-defined chart patterns from Asia, Europe, North America and Emerging Markets that are candidates for possible breakouts and I also report fresh breakout alerts. Before we move on to equity markets, I want to draw your attention to a possibility developing in the interest rates and bonds market. During the weekly review of financial markets, I spotted the similar chart development on almost all kinds of bond market ETFs.

ISHARES BARCLAYS 20+YR TREASURY BOND ETF (TLT.O)

ISHARES BARCLAYS 20+YR TREASURY BOND ETF is an exchange traded fund listed on the Nasdaq Stock Exchange. The Fund seeks investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance of the long-term sector of the U.S. Treasury market as defined by the Barclays Capital 20+ Year Treasury Index. Price chart of this ETF is possibly forming a 4 month-long double bottom. This chart pattern is still at its early stages. The short-term consolidation remains between 117 and 123 levels. The low for the year 2015 stands at 115 as an other important medium/long-term support level. The latest chart development suggests that in the short/medium-term bonds might be finding support. Price should either break 117 levels on the downside or 123 levels on the upside for the chart pattern to complete.

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GLOBAL EQUITY MARKETS-11/02/2017

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This week’s update highlights 3 major technical developments. These themes can be seen in the TECHCHARTSWATCHLIST and TECHCHARTSALERT.

  • Russell 2000 Index is breaking out of its month-long flag continuation
  • EUROPE STOXX 600 index is preparing for a breakout from its short-term consolidation
  • HONG KONG & CHINA equities are gaining strength with clear breakout signals and breakout candidates

Russell 2000 index broke out of its month-long flag consolidation on Friday. The small-cap benchmark equity index should take out the minor high at 1,392 to add further momentum to the recent breakout. Outlook is positive for U.S. equities.

RUSSELL 2000 INDEX - DAILY SCALE

RUSSELL 2000 INDEX – DAILY SCALE

Europe’s STOXX 600 index remained range-bound and closed at the upper end of its month-long consolidation. Latest consolidation can be identified as a continuation flag. Breakout above 367 levels will confirm the bullish continuation chart pattern and suggest higher levels for the European equities in the coming weeks. This update features the iSHARES STOXX 600 ETF that is listed in Germany. The ETF has a similar technical outlook. The upper boundary of the month-long consolidation is at 36.73 levels for the Ishares STOXX 600 ETF.

EUROPE STOXX 600 - WEEKLY SCALE

EUROPE STOXX 600 – WEEKLY SCALE

ISHARES STOXX 600 ETF - WEEKLY SCALE

ISHARES STOXX 600 ETF – WEEKLY SCALE

#TECHCHARTSWATCHLIST

HARBIN BANK (6138.HK)

A common chart pattern that is clearly visible on the Hong Kong/China banking & financial stocks is a multi-month H&S bottom reversal. HARBIN BANK is a Hong Kong based investment holding company. Price chart of the stock formed an 18 month-long H&S bottom with the strong horizontal resistance standing at 2.45 levels. The right shoulder of the multi-month H&S bottom took the form of a bullish flag. HARBIN BANK closed the week at the neckline of its multi-month H&S bottom. A daily close above 2.52 levels will confirm the breakout from the major base formation.

HARBIN BANK - WEEKLY SCALE

HARBIN BANK – WEEKLY SCALE

INDUSTRIAL AND COMMERCIAL BANK OF CHINA (1398.HK)

ICBC is principally involved in the provision of banking and related financial services. It is listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. Similar to several banking and financial stocks listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, ICBC is also forming a multi-month H&S bottom with the strong horizontal resistance standing at 5.15 levels. Stock has a short-term resistance at 4.90. Breakout above 4.90 will set the initial target as 5.15.

ICBC - WEEKLY SCALE

ICBC – WEEKLY SCALE

CQRC BANK (3618.HK)

Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank is engaged in the provision of banking services and related financial services in China. Stock is listed on the Hong Kong stock exchange. Price chart of CQRC BANK formed a long-term base formation similar to other financial/bank stocks in Hong Kong. Multi-month H&S bottom has a horizontal resistance at 5.10 levels. A daily close above 5.25 levels will confirm the breakout. H&S bottom price target stands at 6.6 levels.

CQRC BANK - WEEKLY SCALE

CQRC BANK – WEEKLY SCALE

BANK OF CHINA (3988.HK)

Last but not least BANK OF CHINA another Hong Kong listed banking stock forms a similar 16 month-long H&S bottom with a downward sloping neckline which is standing at 3.8 levels. A daily close above 3.88 levels will confirm the breakout from the multi-month bullish reversal. Chart pattern price target stands at 4.65 levels.

BANK OF CHINA - WEEKLY SCALE

BANK OF CHINA – WEEKLY SCALE

CHINA MERCHANTS CHINA DIRECT INVESTMENTS LTD (0133.HK)

China Merchants China Direct Investments Limited is a Hong Kong-based investment holding company principally engaged in financial investment. Price chart of CHINA MERCHANTS formed a 9 month-long bullish ascending triangle with the horizontal resistance standing at 12.05 levels. This week’s close was at the chart pattern boundary. A daily close above 12.40 will confirm the breakout from the bullish continuation chart pattern with a possible price target of 14.

CHINA MERCHANTS - WEEKLY SCALE

CHINA MERCHANTS – WEEKLY SCALE

LINGBAO GOLD (3330.HK)

Lingbao Gold Company Limited is principally engaged in the mining, processing, smelting and sales of gold and other metallic products in the People’s Republic of China (the PRC). The stock is listed on the Hong Kong stock exchange. Price chart formed a 5 month-long symmetrical triangle with the resistance at 1.98. A daily close above 2.04 levels will confirm the breakout from the continuation chart pattern.

LINGBAO GOLD - WEEKLY SCALE

LINGBAO GOLD – WEEKLY SCALE

APOLLO INVESTMENT CORP (AINV.O)

Apollo Investment Corporation is a closed-end, externally managed, non-diversified management investment company. It is listed on the Nasdaq Stock Exchange. Price chart formed a 4 month-long symmetrical triangle with the upper boundary standing at 6.20 levels. A daily close above 6.38 will confirm the breakout from the 4 month-long consolidation.

APOLLO INVESTMENT - WEEKLY SCALE

APOLLO INVESTMENT – WEEKLY SCALE

 SPDR S&P INTERNATIONAL DIVIDEND ETF (DWX)

SPDR S&P INTERNATIONAL DIVIDEND ETF seeks to replicate as closely as possible, before expenses, the price and yield performance of an index that tracks exchange-listed common stocks domiciled in countries outside the United States that offer high dividend yields. The ETF is listed on the NYSE Arca. Price chart of DWX formed a 15 month-long ascending triangle with the strong horizontal resistance standing at 37.45 levels. Over the past 15 months the horizontal resistance was tested for 6 times. Ascending triangle is a bullish chart pattern and it can resolve as a major bottom reversal. A daily close above 38.20 will confirm the breakout from the multi-month consolidation. Ascending triangle price target stands at 45 levels.

SPDR S&P INTL DIV ETF - WEEKLY SCALE

SPDR S&P INTL DIV ETF – WEEKLY SCALE

There were 4 new breakouts this week that are moved from the TECHCHARTSWATCHILST to the TECHCHARTSALERT. Below are the stocks that completed their chart patterns.

#TECHCHARTSALERT

ZEPAK (ZEEP.WA)

Zespol Elektrowni Patnow Adamow Konin SA is a Poland based company engaged in the electricity sector. The stock is listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange. Price chart formed a  7 month-long ascending triangle with the strong horizontal resistance standing at 14.15 levels. This week’s price action cleared the strong resistance. While the ascending triangle price target stands at 18 levels, strong weekly breakout could be the beginning of a larger scale uptrend that can carry the price towards 20-25 area.

ZEPAK - WEEKLY SCALE

ZEPAK – WEEKLY SCALE

CHINA TAIPING INSURANCE (0966.HK)

China Taiping Insurance Holdings Company Limited is a Hong Kong-based investment holding company principally engaged in insurance businesses. Price chart completed a year-long H&S bottom with a daily close above 18.75 levels. Strong horizontal resistance was at 18.20 levels. H&S bottom price target stands at 22.5 levels.

CHINA TAIPING - WEEKLY SCALE

CHINA TAIPING – WEEKLY SCALE

CHINA COMMUNICATIONS CONSTRUCTION (1800.HK)

CHINA COMM CONS. is an industrial company listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. The company is engaged in the infrastructure construction of ports, roads, bridges and railways. The price chart formed a text-book symmetrical triangle. Symmetrical triangles are usually considered to be continuation chart patterns. This week’s strong price action and a close above 9.65 levels confirmed the breakout with a possible chart pattern price target of 12 levels.

CHINA COMM CONS - WEEKLY SCALE

CHINA COMM CONS – WEEKLY SCALE

INTERFOR CORPORATION (IFP.TO)

Interfor Corporation, formerly International Forest Products Limited, is a Canada-based supplier of lumber products. The Company operates through solid wood segment. The Company offers lumber products to customers in North America, the Asia-Pacific region and Europe. Price chart completed a 5 month-long rectangle continuation chart pattern with a possible price target of 18.5 levels. Strong weekly price action can be the beginning of a larger scale uptrend.

INTERFOR CORPORATION - WEEKLY SCALE

INTERFOR CORPORATION – WEEKLY SCALE

GLOBAL EQUITY MARKETS-04/02/2017

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A volatile trading week finished with a strong close on Friday for most of the global equity indices. Russell 2000 index serves as a benchmark for small-cap stocks in the United States. With Friday’s strong close, once again the index reached the upper boundary of its tight consolidation range. Breakout on Russell 2000 index could bode well for the equity market performance in the coming weeks. Strong short-term resistance stands at 1,385 levels.

RUSSELL 2000 INDEX - DAILY SCALE

RUSSELL 2000 INDEX – DAILY SCALE

European equities hold on to their gains following the strong breakout in late 2016. STOXX 600 index cleared the 350 levels with a strong weekly bar in December 2016 and completed a year-long base formation. Over the past month, the STOXX 600 index remained in a tight range between 360 and 367 levels possibly forming a bullish flag. A flag is usually considered a pause in a trend period and classified as a continuation chart pattern. Breakout above 367 levels should resume the uptrend in the European equities.

EURO STOXX 600 - WEEKLY SCALE

EURO STOXX 600 – WEEKLY SCALE

EURO STOXX 600 - MONTHLY SCALE

EURO STOXX 600 – MONTHLY SCALE

I shared several updates on the Turkish equities both on twitter and on the Tech Charts blog. As I go through several charts every week, I look for price action with well-defined boundaries, preferably forming an identifiable and mature chart pattern. Breakouts from these type of chart setups usually yield strong trend periods in the direction of the breakout. Turkey’s BIST 100 equity benchmark index is one of the best looking chart setup in the Emerging Market opportunity set. Breakout from the 3 year-long symmetrical triangle can result in a strong uptrend targeting 121K levels. Turkey BIST 100 index is setting up for a breakout that could result in a multi-month trend.

TURKEY BIST 100 INDEX - MONTHLY SCALE

TURKEY BIST 100 INDEX – MONTHLY SCALE

Several great chart setups made it to the #TECHCHARTSWATCHLIST this week from Asia, Europe and the U.S. The length of the identifiable chart patterns range from minimum 4 months to maximum 2 years. I prefer those chart patterns with horizontal boundaries but also pay close attention to mature symmetrical triangles. Head and shoulder tops/bottoms, rectangles and ascending/descending triangles are the classic chart patterns with horizontal boundaries.

MAXITRANS INDUSTRIES (MXI.AX)

MAXITRANS INDUSTRIES is a small-cap stock listed on the Australia Stock Exchange. The company is engaged in the design, manufacture, sale, service and repair of transport equipment and related components, and spare parts. Price chart formed a 2 year-long complex H&S bottom with the strong horizontal resistance standing at 0.645 levels. A daily close above 0.665 levels will confirm the breakout from the bullish reversal chart pattern with a possible price target of 0.90. Stock is testing the horizontal resistance for the 5th time over the past 2 years.

MAXITRANS - WEEKLY SCALE

MAXITRANS – WEEKLY SCALE

SOFINA SA (SOF.BR)

SOFINA  is a Belgium-based holding company that invests, directly and indirectly, in companies from various sectors. Price chart formed a 5 month-long rectangle with the resistance standing at 128.75 levels. Stock is going through a historical low volatility period and usually breakouts from these type of conditions result in strong price action. A daily close above 131 levels will confirm the breakout from the bullish continuation chart pattern.

SOFINA - WEEKLY SCALE

SOFINA – WEEKLY SCALE

888 HOLDINGS (888.L)

888 Holdings Public Limited Company is a provider of online gaming entertainment and solutions. The company is listed on the London Stock Exchange. Price chart of 888 Holdings formed a year-long rectangle with the strong horizontal resistance at 233.5 levels. This week’s strong weekly close breached the horizontal resistance. Edwards and Magee in their book Technical Analysis of Stock Trends suggest that a stock should breakout by a min 3% margin above the resistance for a clear chart pattern breakout signal. According to this guideline, a daily close above 240.65 levels will confirm the breakout from the year-long rectangle. Rectangle chart pattern price target stands at 280 levels.

888 HOLDINGS - WEEKLY SCALE

888 HOLDINGS – WEEKLY SCALE

ENTERTAINMENT ONE LTD. (ETO.L)

Entertainment One Ltd. is an independent entertainment company listed on the London Stock Exchange. The Company is focused on the acquisition, production and distribution of television, family, film and music content rights across all media across the world. Price chart formed a 5 month-long symmetrical triangle that should breakout soon. A daily close above 250 levels will confirm the breakout from the tight consolidation range and possibly target 305 levels.

ENTERTAINMENT ONE - WEEKLY SCALE

ENTERTAINMENT ONE – WEEKLY SCALE

KURA CORP (2695.T)

KURA CORP is a consumer cyclical company listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. Price chart of KURA CORP formed a year-long H&S top, a bearish reversal chart pattern. The strong horizontal support stands at 4,560 levels. The support was tested for 5 times over the past year. A daily close below 4,425 levels will confirm the bearish reversal chart pattern with a possible price target of 3,000. The symmetry between the shoulders and also several tests of the horizontal support makes this a text-book H&S top.

KURA CORP - WEEKLY SCALE

KURA CORP – WEEKLY SCALE

FLEXSHARES INTERNATIONAL QUALITY DIVIDEND INDEX FUND (IQDF.K)

The Fund seeks investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of the Northern Trust International Quality Dividend Index. The underlying index is designed to provide exposure to a high-quality, income-oriented portfolio of international equity securities. It’s geographical focus is global ex U.S. The fund is listed by NYSE Arca. Price chart formed a 16 month-long H&S bottom or possibly an ascending triangle that could act as a bottom reversal. The strong horizontal resistance stands at 23.35 levels. A daily close above 23.75 levels will confirm the breakout from the multi-month base formation with a possible price target of 27 levels.

FLX INTL DEF - WEEKLY SCALE

FLX INTL DEF – WEEKLY SCALE

BOYD GAMING (BYD)

Boyd Gaming Corporation is a multi-jurisdictional gaming company. The company is listed on the NYSE. Price chart formed a year-long ascending triangle with the strong horizontal boundary standing at 21.30 levels. Ascending triangle is considered to be a bullish continuation chart pattern. A daily close above 21.95 levels will confirm the breakout after the 5th test of the upper boundary over the past year. Price target for the ascending triangle stands at 28 levels.

BOYD GAMING - WEEKLY SCALE

BOYD GAMING – WEEKLY SCALE

SPDR S&P BIOTECH ETF (XBI)

The Fund seeks to replicate as closely as possible the performance of an index derived from the biotechnology segment of a U.S. total market composite index. The Fund uses a passive management strategy designed to track the total return performance of the S&P Biotechnology Select Industry Index. SPDR S&P BIOTECH ETF is listed on the NYSE. Price chart formed a 4 month-long symmetrical triangle with the upper boundary at 66 levels acting as resistance. A daily close above 67.35 levels will confirm the breakout from the sideways consolidation.

SPDR S&P BIOTECH ETF -WEEKLY SCALE

SPDR S&P BIOTECH ETF -WEEKLY SCALE

MULTIPOLAR TBK (MLPL.JK)

PT Multipolar Tbk is an Indonesia-based investment holding company. The company is listed on the Jakarta Stock Exchange. Price chart formed a 9 month-long symmetrical triangle following a sharp rise in the first quarter of 2016. The upper boundary of the symmetrical triangle stands at 406 levels. A daily close above 418 levels will confirm the breakout from the consolidation range and suggest higher levels for the stock in the coming weeks.

MULTIPOLAR TBK - WEEKLY SCALE

MULTIPOLAR TBK – WEEKLY SCALE

Breakouts from bullish chart patterns to all time high levels are signals a trader can’t ignore. Breakout to all time high level means that the stock doesn’t have any resistance ahead. Completion of a bullish chart pattern itself is a positive technical signal. There has been two chart pattern breakout signals that met the above conditions and made it to the #TECHCHARTSALERT this week.

SJR IN SCANDINAVIA AB (SJRb.ST)

SJR is a small-cap Sweden-based staff recruitment company primarily focusing on the economic, banking and financial sectors. Price chart completed a 2 year-long rectangle followed by the breakout from the short-term 4 month-long rectangle. SJR IN SCANDINAVIA is at all-time high levels. Possible price target for the rectangle chart pattern stands at 48 levels.

SJR - WEEKLY SCALE

SJR – WEEKLY SCALE

CINEWORLD GROUP (CINE.L)

CINEWORLD GROUP is a consumer cyclical company listed on the London Stock Exchange. Price chart completed a 16 month-long cup & handle chart pattern and broke out to all-time high levels. Cup & handle is a bullish continuation chart pattern and has a possible price target of 720 levels.

CINEWORLD GROUP - WEEKLY SCALE

CINEWORLD GROUP – WEEKLY SCALE

TURKIYE VAKIFLAR BANKASI (VAKBN.IS)

Turkiye Vakiflar Bankasi TAO (Vakifbank) is a Turkey-based commercial bank. The company is listed on the Istanbul Stock Exchange. Price chart completed a 3 year-long symmetrical triangle followed by a medium-term 9 month-long symmetrical triangle. These are clearly bullish signals for the stock. Possible price target for the 9 month-long symmetrical triangle stands at 6 levels.

VAKIF BANK - WEEKLY SCALE

VAKIF BANK – WEEKLY SCALE