INDIA BSE SENSEX INDEX Archives

GLOBAL EQUITY MARKETS – May 27, 2017

May 27, 2017/0 Comments/in Premium/by Aksel Kibar

Dear Tech Charts members,

Thank you for joining Tech Charts as Founding Member. I hope to identify many great chart set-ups, trading & investment themes and add value to your decision making process in the years ahead. This week's Global Equity Markets report covers several ETFs from different regions, single stocks from Developed and Emerging countries and equity indices. You will find that some of the themes are longer-term and can offer great opportunity once these chart patterns are resolved on the upside. In this report I also added a section that explains what each label on the charts and section headers stand for. I hope this will make it easier to navigate through the charts.

GLOBAL EQUITY MARKETS-28/01/2017

January 28, 2017/0 Comments/in DEVELOPED MARKET EQUITIES, EMERGING MARKET EQUITIES, Uncategorized/by Aksel Kibar

This week’s major financial event was the Dow Jones Industrial Average breaking the technical and psychological level at 20,000. Following the strong rally in November-December 2016, the index completed a month-long bullish flag with a gap opening. These are all positive technical developments for the equity markets. While the DJIA cleared its month-long resistance, RUSSELL 2000, a small-cap market index is still below the technical resistance at 1,385 levels. A possible breakout on the RUSSELL 2000 index in the following days/week should add momentum to the equity markets. Meanwhile the DJIA should hold above 19,920-20,000 range if we were to expect continued strength.

DJIA – WEEKLY SCALE

RUSSELL 2000 IND – WEEKLY SCALE

There has been several chart pattern breakout signals this week as well as new additions to the TECHCHARTSWATCHLIST. As I go through thousands of charts every week, I look for chart patterns that have well-defined horizontal boundaries. Most of the chart patterns range from minimum 4 months to maximum 2 years. Below are the new additions to the TECHCHARTSWATCHLIST.

#TECHCHARTSWATCHLIST

SJR IN SCANDINAVIA AB (SJRb.ST)

SJR is a small-cap Sweden-based staff recruitment company primarily focusing on the economic, banking and financial sectors. Price chart of SJR formed a 2 year-long rectangle chart pattern with the strong horizontal boundary standing at 39.25 levels. Over the past 4 months, the stock formed another short-term consolidation and with this week’s price action it cleared both resistances. Edwards and Magee in their book Technical Analysis of Stock Trends suggest that a stock should breakout by a min 3% margin above the resistance for a clear chart pattern breakout signal. According to this guideline, a daily close above 40.45 will confirm the breakout from the 2 year-long rectangle.

SJR – WEEKLY SCALE

HARBIN BANK (6138.HK)

A common chart pattern that is clearly visible on the Hong Kong/China banking & financial stocks is a multi-month H&S bottom reversal. HARBIN BANK is a Hong Kong based investment holding company. Price chart of the stock formed an 18 month-long H&S bottom with the strong horizontal resistance standing at 2.45 levels. The right shoulder of the multi-month H&S bottom took the form of a bullish flag. While there is still room for the chart pattern breakout signal on the H&S Bottom, an initial breakout signal will be triggered with the possible breakout of the 5 month-long flag. Flags are considered to be bullish continuation and H&S bottoms are major bottom reversal chart patterns. These are two positive technical chart developments for the stock. A breakout is required for confirmation.

HARBIN BANK – WEEKLY SCALE

INDUSTRIAL AND COMMERCIAL BANK OF CHINA (1398.HK)

ICBC is principally involved in the provision of banking and related financial services. It is listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. Similar to several banking and financial stocks listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, ICBC is also forming a multi-month H&S bottom with the strong horizontal resistance standing at 5.15 levels. Over the past 5 months the stock formed a symmetrical triangle that can act as a continuation chart pattern. The upper boundary of this shorter term chart pattern stands at 4.85 levels. Breakout from the 5 month-long symmetrical triangle can act as an early signal for a possible larger scale bullish development.

ICBC – WEEKLY SCALE

TURQUOISE HILL RESOURCES (TRQ)

TURQUOISE HILL RESOURCES is an international mining company. The chart below shows the price on the NYSE. Price chart formed a 6 month-long cup & handle chart pattern with the strong horizontal resistance standing at 3.65 levels. Over the past 6 months the stock tested the 3.65 levels for three times. Cup & handle is considered to be a bullish continuation chart pattern. A daily close above 3.75 levels will confirm the breakout from the bullish chart pattern with a possible price target of 4.5 levels.

TURQUS HL RSC – WEEKLY SCALE

CANADIAN PACIFIC RAILWAY (CP)

CANADIAN PACIFIC RAILWAY LTD. together with its subsidiaries, operates a transcontinental railway in Canada and the United States. The chart below shows the price on the NYSE. Price chart of CANADIAN PACIFIC formed a 4 month-long rectangle with the strong horizontal resistance standing at 156.7 levels. If the 4 month-long rectangle acts as a continuation chart pattern, breakout above 156.7 levels can also complete a multi-month base formation that could possibly start a larger scale uptrend. A daily close above 161 levels will confirm the breakout from the rectangle chart pattern.

CANADIAN PACIFIC – WEEKLY SCALE

ZEPAK (ZEEP.WA)

Zespol Elektrowni Patnow Adamow Konin SA is a Poland based company engaged in the electricity sector. The stock is listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange. Price chart formed a 7 month-long ascending triangle with the strong horizontal resistance standing at 14.15 levels. This week the stock tested the upper boundary of the bullish continuation chart pattern for the 4th time. A daily close above 14.70 levels will confirm the breakout from the 7 month-long ascending triangle with a possible price target of 18.

ZEPAK – WEEKLY SCALE

SANLAM (SLMJ.J)

SANLAM LIMITED is a South Africa-based holding company. The Company provides solutions, which include life insurance; general insurance; investment management (including retail savings, asset management and wealth management); credit and structuring, and administration, health and other (such as estate planning, trusts, wills, and lending and health management). Price chart formed a 9 month-long symmetrical triangle with the upper boundary standing at 6,865 levels. This week’s price action marked the 3rd test of the upper boundary. A daily close above 7,070 levels can confirm the 9 month-long symmetrical triangle as a bullish continuation chart pattern with a possible price target of 8,240.

SANLAM – WEEKLY SCALE

PTC INDIA FINANCIAL SERVICES (PTCN.BO)

PTC India Financial Services Limited is an infrastructure finance company. The Company provides financial services to the entities in energy value chain. Price chart of PTC INDIA formed a 9 month-long rectangle. Rectangle chart pattern can act as a bullish continuation. The upper boundary of the rectangle stands at 42.75 and this week’s price action managed to closed above that level. A daily close above 44 levels will confirm the breakout from the multi-month sideways consolidation. Rectangle chart pattern price target stands at 50.

PTC INDIA – WEEKLY SCALE

With the help of MetaStock, I can scan/explore thousands of charts with predefined criteria, short-list many of them and then manually search for those great chart patterns. Every week I start from 20,000+ charts and short-list approximately to 3,000 names. Out of those I find the best looking charts and bring it to your attention. MetaStock was kind enough to offer a special discount for Tech Charts followers for their award-winning software. By following this link METASTOCK DISCOUNT FOR TECHCHARTS FOLLOWERS (3 MONTHS FOR THE PRICE OF 1) you can get discounted access to more than 400,000 data series on global financial markets.

#TECHCHARTSALERT

DAIRY FARM INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS (DAIR.SI)

A TECHCHARTSALERT was issued on Monday with the strong breakout on DAIRY FARM, listed in Singapore Stock Exchange. Breakouts from well-defined and tight consolidation ranges can result in sharp price action. This was the case for DAIRY FARM. Following its breakout, the stock reached its rectangle chart pattern price target in a matter of a week.

#SINGAPORE A new chart pattern breakout signal triggered on DAIRY FARM with the completion of 5 month-long rectangle. #TECHCHARTSALERT pic.twitter.com/voCr20H2BX

— Aksel Kibar, CMT (@TechCharts) January 23, 2017

DAIRY FARM – DAILY SCALE

DAIRY FARM – WEEKLY SCALE

SINGAPORE STRAITS TIMES INDEX (.STI)

SINGAPORE’S equity benchmark index completed a 9 month-long ascending triangle with the breakout above 2,965 levels. After a week of pullback and a re-test of the horizontal support, the index resumed its uptrend. Ascending triangle price target stands at 3,200 levels.

STI – WEEKLY SCALE

TAMBURI INVESTMENT PARTNERS (TIP.MI)

TAMBURI is a financial company listed on the Milan Stock Exchange. This week’s price action completed a 20 month-long H&S continuation chart pattern. While the stock closed well below its weekly highs, this could possibly be an intra-week pullback to the broken horizontal resistance at 3.75. Stock should remain above 3.75 for the bullish outlook to remain intact.

TAMBURI – WEEKLY SCALE

FIRST TRACTOR (0038.HK)

First Tractor Company Limited is principally engaged in the manufacture and sale of machinery products. This week’s breakout completed a year-long H&S bottom and also a 5 month-long symmetrical triangle. H&S bottom price target stands at 5.4 levels. Stock should hold above 4.60 levels for the bullish outlook to remain intact.

FIRST TRACTOR – DAILY SCALE

FIRST TRACTOR – WEEKLY SCALE

LIBERTY INTERACTIVE CORP. (LVNTA.O)

LIBERTY INTERACTIVE CORP. is a consumer cyclical company listed on the NASDAQ. The company owns interests in subsidiaries and other companies that are engaged in the video and digital commerce industries. This week’s strong breakout completed a 20 month-long H&S continuation chart pattern with the price target of 50.85. Stock should hold above 41.15 levels for the bullish outlook to remain intact.

LIBERTY INTERACTIVE – WEEKLY SCALE

BASIC MATERIALS and ENERGY

August 7, 2016/0 Comments/in COMMODITIES, Uncategorized/by Aksel Kibar

In the first few months of 2016, strong performance in Gold and Silver resulted in a sharp rally in precious metal stocks. Several oversold gold and silver mining companies had strong performance over the past few months. Similar bullish theme can take place in the basic materials and energy complex. Some of the commodities in the industrial metals and energy group are in the process of forming major long-term bottoms. The same bullish chart set ups can also be seen in the equities of basic materials and energy companies.

WTI LIGHT CRUDE is possibly forming a H&S bottom with the neckline standing at $50 levels. This chart is still at the early stages of a H&S formation. A few more weeks of strength will complete the right shoulder of a year-long base formation.

Formerly known as Dow Jones-UBS Industrial Metals Subindex Total Return (DJUBINTR), the index is a commodity group subindex of the Bloomberg CITR. The index is composed of longer-dated futures contract s on aluminum, copper, nickel and zinc. It reflects the return on fully collateralized futures positions and is quoted in USD. This chart has possibly completed a H&S bottom and currently consolidating above the neckline.

Formerly known as Dow Jones-UBS Aluminum Subindex Total Return (DJUBALTR), the index is a single commodity subindex of the Bloomberg CI composed of futures contracts on Aluminum. It reflects the return of underlying commodity futures price movements only and is quoted in USD. The neckline of the year-long base formation stands at 28.20 levels.

NMDC Limited is an India-based company engaged in the mining of iron ore. The Company’s business segments include Iron Ore and Other minerals & services. The Company is also engaged in the exploration of various minerals, including copper, rock phosphate, lime stone, dolomite, gypsum, bentonite, magnesite, diamond, tin, tungsten, graphite and beach sands. A perfect horizontal resistance (neckline) stands at 105 levels. Breakout above this level will complete a year-long base formation.

Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX) is a natural resource company with a portfolio of mineral assets, and oil and natural gas resources. The Company’s segments include the Morenci, Cerro Verde, Grasberg and Tenke Fungurume copper mines, the Rod & Refining operations and the U.S. Oil & Gas Operations. It has organized its operations into five primary divisions: North America copper mines, South America mining, Indonesia mining, Africa mining and Molybdenum mines. This is another perfect example of a year-long H&S bottom with the neckline standing at 14.20 levels. Breakout above 14.20 will be bullish and possibly target 25 levels.

Technip SA (Technip) is engaged in project management, engineering and construction for the energy sector. The Company operates through two segments: Subsea, Onshore/Offshore and Corporate. This stock is listed in France. Over the past year, 53 levels acted as strong resistance. Stock might be completing a year-long base.

Wacker Chemie AG is a Germany-based company engaged in chemical industry. The Company operates through four business segments: WACKER SILICONES, which produces silicone products, ranging from silanes through silicone fluids, emulsions, elastomers, sealants and resins to pyrogenic silicas; WACKER POLYMERS, which offers a range of polymeric binders and additives; WACKER POLYSILICON, which provides polysilicon, and WACKER BIOSOLUTIONS, which is the life science division of the Company, offers solutions and products for the food, pharmaceutical and agrochemical industries. While this base formation does not have the perfect symmetry between the left and right shoulders, it is clear from the chart that the horizontal resistance at 86 levels will be critical in the coming weeks. Breakout above 86 will be bullish.

MSCI EMERGING MARKETS

December 13, 2015/0 Comments/in EMERGING MARKET EQUITIES, Uncategorized/by Aksel Kibar

Emerging markets are experiencing renewed weakness after three months of sideways consolidation. MSCI Emerging Markets index sold-off between May and August 2015. Since August the index rebounded but hardly reached the strong resistance area formed by several long-term trend lines. In August, 850-900 area was broken down with a long monthly price action. Three months of consolidation was not able to push prices back to July-August levels. As the FED December meeting approached, emerging markets started weakening again. Breakdown below August 2015 low levels (771) can result in further sell-off.

It is important to note that, since 2011 emerging markets are under performing developed markets. This trend is likely to continue.

Not all emerging markets are showing weakness. Selective markets are performing better than their peers. I’m reviewing below markets that are exposed to strong downward momentum if the MSCI Emerging Markets index breaks below August 2015 low levels.

Turkey BIST 100 index formed head and shoulder chart pattern. Index is in the process of breaking down the year-long top formation. Another week of price action might be needed for confirmation as the index closed at its August low.

Not sure if the top formation on South Africa All Share can be plotted as H&S top, but breakdown below 46,000-46,500 area will result in further weakness in the coming months.

Philippines SE Composite Index is rolling over with a possible H&S top formation. I see this market a strong candidate for further weakness.

Another Asian emerging markets index that has outperformed its peers, is now showing signs of weakness. While the long-term trend might remain intact, BSE Sensex index can retest 21,200 levels.

Brazil’s Bovespa Index has been in a clear downtrend and it continues to make lower lows. In case of a breakdown on the MSCI emerging markets index, Bovespa can test the lower boundary of its trend channel at 40,000 levels.

Mexico IPC index performed better than its peers. Though, the South American index is also challenging multi-year trend support.

In emerging Europe, Poland’s WIG 20 index is selling off sharply. Index can test 2009 low levels.

Recently upgraded energy economies are facing tough times. With the collapse of oil and gas prices, Qatar’s DMS 20 index started selling off. First support area remains between 8,000 and 8,500.

Egypt’s EGX 30 index is now challenging multi-year trend support. Breakdown could result in further weakness towards 5,000-5,500 area.

INDIA BSE SENSEX INDEX

April 21, 2015/1 Comment/in EMERGING MARKET CURRENCIES, EMERGING MARKET EQUITIES, Uncategorized/by Aksel Kibar

Uptrend in INDIA equities is running out of steam. Chart pattern suggests correction in the coming months if the index breaks down the 200-day exponential moving average at 27,300 levels. India BSE SENSEX index might be forming a head and shoulder top chart pattern with the neckline overlapping with the long-term average. Breakdown below a strong technical level like this could be the first warning signal of a deeper correction.

Weekly price scale

Daily price scale

Similarly USD/INR formed an inverse head and shoulder chart pattern suggesting weak Rupee if the cross rate breaks above 63.70 levels. I’m still bullish on India in the long-term (you can find earlier analysis here at the time of long-term breakout). BSE SENSEX cleared long-term horizontal resistance at 21,200 levels in 2014. I’ll view the possible weakness as a pullback to the long-term support level.

Some stocks that are showing weakness in the Index. Strong long-term trend lines are being challenged. Breakdown on these names can push the SENSEX lower.

UK FTSE 100 and STOXX 600

April 11, 2015/0 Comments/in DEVELOPED MARKET EQUITIES, Uncategorized/by Aksel Kibar

A chart that breaks out to all time high levels has the least resistance. It is called the uncharted territory. Prices are expected to resume their trend after a decisive breakout to all-time high levels. This is what happened with some of the indices over the past few years. I attached below some of the strong breakouts to all-time high levels that have taken place. S&P 500 Index, Germany DAX Index and India BSE SENSEX index are some of them.

More and more equity indices are now breaking out to all-time high levels or at least preparing for strong breakouts. UK FTSE 100 index is one of them. Index closed the week above strong resistance level at 6,950. Few more weeks of strength will confirm the decade-long breakout.

Europe continues to gain strength thanks to ECB. Euro Stoxx 600 index is preparing to clear multi-year resistance at 400 levels. I’m not sure if any of these latest breakouts could end up being bull trap. The best available information (latest price information) suggests strength and increase in upside momentum in global equity indices.

MSCI ALL COUNTRIES WORLD INDEX is now challenging multi-year resistance. Decisive monthly scale close above 430 will confirm the breakout.

INDIA BSE SENSEX

May 13, 2014/4 Comments/in EMERGING MARKET EQUITIES, Uncategorized/by Aksel Kibar

Markets that breakout to all time high levels usually don’t look back. Price enters the uncharted territory where it doesn’t meet any resistance. Some breakouts fail and fall back below the resistance they breached earlier. At that point we know that something was wrong with the earlier breakout. However most of the breakouts to all time high levels are so powerful and decisive that they don’t leave the price action in question. India’s breakout has been one of those set-ups where breakout to historical high levels from low volatility period is now being followed by a strong upward trend. This is extremely positive for Indian equities and suggests higher prices in the medium-term. I attached below similar breakouts to all time high levels on South Africa All Share index and S&P 500 index. (For earlier analysis on India you can refer here)

INDIA, U.K. and JAPAN

January 18, 2014/0 Comments/in DEVELOPED MARKET EQUITIES, EMERGING MARKET EQUITIES, Uncategorized/by Aksel Kibar

Over the past few years equity markets had strong performance. Developed markets did better than the emerging markets but overall it has been positive for equity asset class. In this update I’m sharing with you 3 long-term charts that can be the center of attention in 2014. Possible breakouts in these 3 markets can add fuel to the equity strength in the following months. India’s BSE Sensex index, U.K. FTSE 100 index and Japan’s NIKKEI 225 index are testing their long-term trend resistances. Breakout above these long-term strong technical levels can result in a multi-month uptrend and attract more investors.

INDIA BSE SENSEX and USD/INR

January 15, 2014/0 Comments/in EMERGING MARKET CURRENCIES, EMERGING MARKET EQUITIES, Uncategorized/by Aksel Kibar

Strong price action should be followed by a decisive breakout on the BSE Sensex Index. Since 2007, Sensex tested 21,250 levels for three times and over the past few months price action suggests a breakout to all time highs is very likely. Confirmation of the breakout should come after a decisive weekly closing above the strong resistance at 21,250 levels. 200-day moving average should act as medium-term support at 20,000 levels if the index fails to clear the strong resistance. Breakout above 21,250 levels will push the index towards 25,000 levels in a short period of time.

Indian rupee gained strength against the U.S. dollar and this trend is likely to continue towards 58-60 area. Strong equity market should bode well for the local currency.

INDIA BOMBAY SE SENSEX INDEX

December 5, 2013/0 Comments/in EMERGING MARKET EQUITIES, Uncategorized/by Aksel Kibar

Strength in India’s BSE Sensex Index is no surprise as the benchmark has been testing historical high levels. In September I shared an analysis showing similarities between India and South Africa equity index chart patterns. I think consecutive tests of the historical high levels on the BSE Sensex Index will lead to a breakout and higher levels in the following months. There are usually “double tops” in technical analysis but rarely we see “triple tops”. 3rd test of the historical high level at 21,200 could be a preparation for a decisive breakout. Let’s wait for confirmation. A breakout above 21,200 with a strong weekly bar will be very bullish for this market.

Posts

GLOBAL EQUITY MARKETS – May 27, 2017

BASIC MATERIALS and ENERGY

INDIA BSE SENSEX INDEX

UK FTSE 100 and STOXX 600

INDIA BSE SENSEX

INDIA, U.K. and JAPAN

INDIA BSE SENSEX and USD/INR

INDIA BOMBAY SE SENSEX INDEX

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