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GLOBAL EQUITY MARKETS – April 14, 2017

April 14, 2017/0 Comments/in Blog Post, DEVELOPED MARKET EQUITIES, EMERGING MARKET EQUITIES/by Aksel Kibar

A relatively short but eventful trading week is behind us. Volatility increased due to geopolitical tensions. Equity indices came under pressure with bonds moving higher. There were 4 new chart pattern breakout signals during the week. Irrespective of general market direction, I try to feature those breakouts and breakdowns from well-defined trading ranges as they develop.

#TECHCHARTSALERT

CBOE VOLATILITY INDEX (VIX)

Over the past 5 months, the VIX consolidated between 10 and 15 levels. Price tested the horizontal resistance at 14.75 for 3 times over the course of the 5 month-long consolidation. Since the beginning of April, volatility index has been inching higher towards the strong resistance. The daily close above 15.15 levels completed the 5 month-long consolidation. Our focus is now on two important levels. First one is 14.75, that will act as support during any possible pullback. Failure to hold above 14.75 will put the interpretation of higher levels into question. Second one is the chart pattern price target at 19 levels. Price target is calculated by taking the width of the 5 month-long consolidation and adding it to the breakout level.

CBOE VOLATILITY INDEX (VIX)

April 11, 2017/2 Comments/in Blog Post, DEVELOPED MARKET EQUITIES/by Aksel Kibar

Strong technical support & resistance levels are formed after consecutive tests of the same price level. Support/resistance areas show the battle between the buyers and the sellers. The strong resistance for the CBOE VOLATILITY INDEX (VIX) stands at 14.75 levels. Over the past 5 months, the VIX consolidated between 10 and 15 levels. Price tested the horizontal resistance at 14.75 for 3 times over the course of the 5 month-long consolidation. Since the beginning of April, volatility index has been inching higher towards the strong resistance. A daily close above 15.15 levels can complete the 5 month-long consolidation and result in a spike in volatility. A spike in volatility can put downward pressure on global equity indices. This chart should be on your radar in the coming weeks.

GLOBAL EQUITY MARKETS – April 8, 2017

April 8, 2017/2 Comments/in Blog Post, DEVELOPED MARKET EQUITIES, EMERGING MARKET EQUITIES/by Aksel Kibar

It has been a volatile week in the Global equity markets. There were 2 new breakout alerts. Both stocks cleared strong multi-month horizontal resistances.

#TECHCHARTSALERT

TINGYI CAYMAN ISLANDS HOLDING CORP (0322.HK)

Tingyi (Cayman Islands) Holdings Corp. is a Hong Kong-based investment holding company principally engaged in the production and sales of instant noodles, beverages and instant food products. The stock is listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. Price chart formed a 15 month-long H&S bottom with the right shoulder in the form of a 6 month-long rectangle. The neckline of the H&S bottom standing as a resistance at 9.85 has been tested for 4 times over the past year. The daily close above 10.15 confirmed the breakout from the multi-month base formation. 9.85 levels will now become support. Possible chart pattern price target stands at 13.15 levels.

JAPAN NIKKEI 225 INDEX

April 4, 2017/0 Comments/in Blog Post, DEVELOPED MARKET EQUITIES/by Aksel Kibar

Rectangles are usually considered to be a continuation chart pattern. They form as a trading range during a pause in the trend. The pattern is identifiable by two comparable highs and two comparable lows. Rectangles are sometimes referred to as consolidation ranges or trading areas. The rectangle chart pattern is not complete until a breakout is occurred.

To qualify as a continuation chart pattern, a prior trend should exist. Rectangles can extend for a few weeks or many months. If the pattern is less than 3 weeks, it is usually considered a flag, also a continuation chart pattern. Ideally, rectangles will develop over a 3-month period. Generally, the longer the pattern, the more significant the breakout. The direction of the next significant move can only be determined after the breakout has occurred. The estimated move is found by measuring the height of the rectangle and applying it to the breakout level.

JAPAN NIKKEI 225 INDEX FUTURES 1st month continuation

Japan's NIKKEI 225 Index is possibly forming a rectangle chart pattern with the boundaries between 18,800 and 19,690. The index is now testing the lower boundary of its 4 month-long sideways consolidation. Due to the tight consolidation range, volatility on both daily and weekly scale reached an extreme low level. These type of low volatility periods are usually followed by strong price action. It is important to note that there are times when a rectangle can act as a reversal chart pattern. A breakdown below the lower boundary at 18,800 will suggest lower prices in the coming weeks. However, failure to breakdown the support at 18,800 and a possible rebound from the current levels will increase the likelihood of a rectangle as a continuation chart pattern, targeting higher levels.

GLOBAL EQUITY MARKETS – April 1, 2017

March 31, 2017/2 Comments/in Blog Post, DEVELOPED MARKET EQUITIES/by Aksel Kibar

After several years of downtrend and a major bear market, Greek equities can offer great opportunities in the following weeks/months. This week's update features two benchmark equity indices from Greece. Athens General Composite index with a long-term view and FTSE Athex Market index with the latest bullish chart development. In the beginning of 2016, Athens General Index rebounded from the lows of 2012. Over the past year the index remained sideways in a choppy trading range. Last one year's range bound price action is possibly a bullish ascending triangle with the horizontal boundary standing at 445 levels for the FTSE Athex Market Index and at 665 levels for the Athens General Composite index. The upward sloping lower boundary of the ascending triangle gives the chart pattern its bullish bias. Higher lows is indicative of increasing demand. A daily close above 460 levels on the FTSE Athex Market Index will confirm the breakout from the year-long ascending triangle with a possible price target of 580 levels.

ATHENS GENERAL INDEX (.ATG)

GLOBAL EQUITY MARKETS – March 25, 2017

March 25, 2017/0 Comments/in Blog Post, DEVELOPED MARKET EQUITIES/by Aksel Kibar

Global equity markets continue to offer great opportunities and text book chart pattern developments. In this update I bring to your attention well-defined chart patterns from Asia, Europe, North America and Emerging Markets that are candidates for possible breakouts and I also report fresh breakout alerts. Before we move on to equity markets, I want to draw your attention to a possibility developing in the interest rates and bonds market. During the weekly review of financial markets, I spotted the similar chart development on almost all kinds of bond market ETFs.

ISHARES BARCLAYS 20+YR TREASURY BOND ETF (TLT.O)

ISHARES BARCLAYS 20+YR TREASURY BOND ETF is an exchange traded fund listed on the Nasdaq Stock Exchange. The Fund seeks investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance of the long-term sector of the U.S. Treasury market as defined by the Barclays Capital 20+ Year Treasury Index. Price chart of this ETF is possibly forming a 4 month-long double bottom. This chart pattern is still at its early stages. The short-term consolidation remains between 117 and 123 levels. The low for the year 2015 stands at 115 as an other important medium/long-term support level. The latest chart development suggests that in the short/medium-term bonds might be finding support. Price should either break 117 levels on the downside or 123 levels on the upside for the chart pattern to complete.

GLOBAL EQUITY MARKETS – March 18, 2017

March 18, 2017/1 Comment/in Blog Post, DEVELOPED MARKET EQUITIES, EMERGING MARKET EQUITIES/by Aksel Kibar

This week there has been 8 additions to the #TECHCHARTSWATCHLIST. Most of the chart patterns are bullish as major global equity indices continue to remain in an uptrend. This week's watch list includes 2 charts from the earlier updates. It is important to review the two chart set-ups that are now very close to generating chart pattern breakout signals. Below you will find the updated charts for CBO TERRITORIA SA (CBOT.PA) and INDUSTRIAL AND COMMERCIAL BANK OF CHINA (1398.HK)

#TECHCHARTSWATCHLIST

UPONOR OYJ (UNR1V.HE)

Uponor Oyj is a Finland-based supplier of plumbing and heating systems. The stock is listed on the Helsinki Stock Exchange. Price chart formed a 7 month-long H&S continuation chart pattern with the strong horizontal resistance standing at 17.20 levels. H&S continuation is a bullish chart pattern. While H&S top/bottom act as a major reversal chart pattern, H&S can also form as a continuation chart pattern in an up/down trend. The H&S continuation on Uponor Oyj formed after a 7 month-long uptrend. Due to the prior uptrend, H&S continuation on this chart is expected to resolve on the upside. A daily close above 17.70 will confirm the breakout from the multi-month consolidation with a possible price target of 20.5 levels.

UPONOR OYJ - DAILY SCALE

GLOBAL EQUITY MARKETS – March 12, 2017

March 12, 2017/6 Comments/in Blog Post, DEVELOPED MARKET EQUITIES, EMERGING MARKET EQUITIES/by Aksel Kibar

This week there has been 7 additions to the #TECHCHARTSWATCHLIST. Most of the chart patterns are bullish as major global equity indices continue to remain in a uptrend.

#TECHCHARTSWATCHLIST

SSY GROUP LTD (2005.HK)

SSY Group Limited is an investment holding company principally engaged in the research, development, manufacture and sale of pharmaceutical products. The stock is listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. Price chart of SSY GROUP formed a 10 month-long rectangle with the strong horizontal resistance standing at 2.78 levels. Rectangle is a continuation chart pattern. A daily close above 2.86 will confirm the breakout from the bullish chart pattern. Possible price target for the rectangle stands at 3.2 levels.

SSY GROUP - WEEKLY SCALE

GLOBAL EQUITY MARKETS – March 4, 2017

March 4, 2017/0 Comments/in Blog Post, DEVELOPED MARKET EQUITIES, EMERGING MARKET EQUITIES/by Aksel Kibar

The MSCI Emerging Markets index is created by Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) designed to measure equity market performance in global emerging markets. It is a float-adjusted market capitalization index that consists of indices in 23 emerging economies Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, Czech Republic, Egypt, Greece, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Qatar, Russia, South Africa, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey and United Arab Emirates.

Initiated in 1988, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index (MSCI EMI) represented 10 nations with a total world market capitalization of less than 1%. In 2016, the index has since grown to incorporate 23 countries that comprise about 10% of global market cap. Hence, the MSCI EMI is appropriately used as a benchmark for performance by many emerging market growth mutual funds.

The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF seeks to track the investment results of MSCI Emerging Markets Index. This ETF does not include any currency hedging. This means investors in this product gain exposure to the underlying securities and the currencies in which they are denominated. It is an efficient way to take advantage of trends in the emerging markets and cyclical movements related to emerging markets local currencies.

Last week's update drew attention to the developing bearish candlestick reversal pattern, a shooting star, usually suggests lower prices following its completion. This week's lower opening and weak closing confirms the short-term pull-back in emerging markets equities.

ISHARES MSCI EMERGING MARKETS ETF - WEEKLY SCALE

GLOBAL EQUITY MARKETS – February 25, 2017

February 25, 2017/0 Comments/in Blog Post, DEVELOPED MARKET EQUITIES, EMERGING MARKET EQUITIES/by Aksel Kibar

Compared to traditional bar charts, candlestick charts can be more helpful to analyze price action. We can see the relationship between the open and close as well as the high and low. The relationship between the open and close is considered vital information and forms the essence of candlesticks. This week's price action in global equity markets is worth analyzing with the help of candlestick chart patterns.

Doji are important candlesticks that provide information on their own and as components of in a number of important patterns. Doji form when a security's open and close are virtually equal. The length of the upper and lower shadows can vary and the resulting candlestick looks like a cross, inverted cross or plus sign. Alone, doji are neutral patterns. Any bullish or bearish bias is based on preceding price action and future confirmation.

Doji convey a sense of indecision between buyers and sellers. Prices move above and below the opening level during the session, but close at or near the opening level. Neither bulls nor bears were able to gain control and a turning point could be developing. The relevance of a doji depends on the preceding trend or preceding candlesticks. After an advance, or long white candlestick, a doji signals that the buying pressure is starting to weaken.

ISHARES MSCI ALL COUNTRIES WORLD INDEX ETF (ACWI.O)

After a year-long uptrend ISHARES MSCI ALL COUNTRIES WORLD INDEX ETF (ACWI.O) reached its 2015 high levels that acted as resistance. This week's price action formed a Doji on the weekly scale chart. Given that the preceding trend was up and strong, this week's Doji clearly suggested that the buying power has stalled. Strong horizontal resistance stands at 63 levels. Global equities can experience a consolidation of the earlier gains and possibly a pullback towards the year-long upward trend line. Doji alone is not enough to forecast a reversal. Following week's price action around the strong resistance will provide valuable information.

ISHARES MSCI ACWI ETF - WEEKLY SCALE

GLOBAL EQUITY MARKETS – April 14, 2017

#TECHCHARTSALERT

CBOE VOLATILITY INDEX (VIX)

CBOE VOLATILITY INDEX (VIX)

GLOBAL EQUITY MARKETS – April 8, 2017

#TECHCHARTSALERT

TINGYI CAYMAN ISLANDS HOLDING CORP (0322.HK)

JAPAN NIKKEI 225 INDEX

JAPAN NIKKEI 225 INDEX FUTURES 1st month continuation

GLOBAL EQUITY MARKETS – April 1, 2017

ATHENS GENERAL INDEX (.ATG)

GLOBAL EQUITY MARKETS – March 25, 2017

ISHARES BARCLAYS 20+YR TREASURY BOND ETF (TLT.O)

GLOBAL EQUITY MARKETS – March 12, 2017

#TECHCHARTSWATCHLIST

SSY GROUP LTD (2005.HK)

GLOBAL EQUITY MARKETS – March 4, 2017

GLOBAL EQUITY MARKETS – February 25, 2017

ISHARES MSCI ALL COUNTRIES WORLD INDEX ETF (ACWI.O)

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