Yesterday’s data on housing and unemployment supported my view on weakening trends on both economic indicators. It is important to note that we are getting closer to a major long-term resistance on the housing starts data. Since 1966, 850,000 level has been a major support. During the latest downturn, hosing starts fell below this level. […]
McDonald’s was one of the first stocks that entered a major uptrend after breaking out of a massive symmetrical triangle. Breakout from a widely recognized chart pattern (symmetrical triangle) resulted in a 3 year-long uptrend. McDonald’s is now forming another popular technical chart formation; head and shoulder top. Head and shoulder patterns are not confirmed until price breaks down the […]
On the 4th of July I analyzed the feeder and live cattle charts from a long-term perspective. Both commodities had perfect breakouts from their long-term consolidation ranges and formed consistent uptrends. http://techcharts.wordpress.com/2012/07/04/feeder-cattle-live-cattle/ Over the past few weeks the medium-term uptrend on feeder cattle has reversed after it completed a double top chart pattern and broke down […]
Thomas Bulkowski (author of encyclopedia of Chart Patterns) defines an ascending broadening wedge as a reversal chart pattern. An ascending broadening wedge has two upward sloping trend lines; the top one has a slightly steeper slope than the bottom one. Together, the two trend lines spread out over time but both slope upward. Once prices pierce the bottom […]
After a long break let me start with updating the latest economic data on housing and unemployment. I think these are the two most important economic data that we should be watching closely over the next few months. Housing because it is the latest bubble that burst and it was the cause of the global financial turmoil. […]
Fewer Americans than forecast filed first-time claims for unemployment insurance payments last week. Applications for jobless benefits decreased by 26,000 in the week ended July 7 to 350,000, the fewest since March 2008, Labor Department figures showed today. Even though the sharp drop is reflecting the volatility of applications during the annual auto-plant retooling period, it […]
Followers of Tech Charts blog will remember my earlier analysis on Soy Meal which was posted in March. Soy Meal had one of the best technical chart patterns; symmetrical triangle. It was a long-term chart pattern which made it even more significant. http://techcharts.wordpress.com/2012/03/05/soy-meal-3/ Soy Meal broke out of its long-term consolidation at 370 levels in March […]
In U.K. the Monetary Policy Committee led by Governor Mervyn King raised its asset-purchase target by 50 billion pounds ($78 billion) to 375 billion pounds and said the purchases will take four months to complete. Separately, the European Central Bank cut its key interest rate below 1 percent for the first time and China lowered […]
Another update is on the long and medium term Coffee charts. One month from the last update Coffee has found support at the lower boundary of the long-term trend channel and rebounded sharply. http://techcharts.wordpress.com/2012/06/01/coffee-3/ Before we identify the direction of the next medium/long-term trend, Coffee is likely to consolidate between 200 levels (200 day moving average) and 160 […]
In this post I’m analyzing two long-term commodity charts from the meat complex. Charts above are continuous prices for Live Cattle and Feeder Cattle. Both charts had strong breakouts from their long-term consolidation ranges. Feeder cattle and Live cattle prices broke out of 6 year-long consolidation periods in the beginning of 2011. Feeder cattle breached 120 levels and Live cattle 104 levels. […]
