It is uncharted territory once again for the USD/TRY. For more than a decade USD/TRY (U.S. dollar/Turkish lira) consolidated between 1.75 and 1.15 levels. Cross rate managed to stabilize for more than a decade after the inflationary years of 1990s. It was mid-2011 when the USD/TRY breached the decade-long resistance at 1.75 levels. First the cross […]
It’s been an eventful month so far in Istanbul. Anti-government protests resulted in a sharp sell-off in Borsa Istanbul. Protests can continue for sometime and markets can stay volatile. While it is difficult to understand the price action during these type of event-driven markets, support/resistance levels could be helpful in managing risk. XU 30 index slipped […]
We are likely to see a strong breakout on crude oil in the following days/weeks. Strong resistance is at $97 levels. Downward sloping trend line which acts as strong resistance was tested for five times over the past one year. Breakout from the short/medium-term symmetrical triangle will push prices higher towards $104. This is one of the important […]
Today we will update our jobless claims data. Since 2009, U.S. jobless claims have been declining from 650K levels to 350K. This has been a strong downtrend and reached levels that proved to be major support over the past decades. 300-350 area is strong support. Higher jobless claims data over the next few months could signal a […]
Russian ruble is another emerging market currency that has lost ground against the U.S. dollar. Over the past 9 months cross rate completed an inverted head and shoulder pattern with the neckline acting as resistance at 31.80 levels. Inverted head shoulder is regarded as a bullish reversal pattern. We are now seeing USD/RUB breaking above the resistance […]
U.S. dollar continues to gain strength against major emerging market currencies. In this update I’m analyzing the USD/ZAR (South African Rand). USD has been strong against the Rand since mid-2011. We are now seeing the uptrend accelerating towards the long-term resistance at 10.70 levels. Earlier tops in 2001 and in 2008 was marked with an upward spike. […]
Earlier in May I’ve updated two charts on the emerging market currencies USD/INR (Indian Rupee) and USD/TRY (Turkish Lira). Both suggested strong USD in the short/medium-term. We are seeing clear breakouts from consolidation ranges and weakness in major emerging market currencies.
U.S. jobless claims spiked higher in the May 11 week, up 32,000 reaching 360,000. Earlier analysis showed a long-term chart of the weekly jobless claims, reaching strong support levels. Over the past 4 years jobless claims moved from one extreme to another.
Many people must have seen the latest H&S chart pattern on the EUR/USD. If you haven’t seen it above is the price chart of the EUR/USD with its 200 day simple moving average. H&S patterns do fail. Reversal above the right shoulder (1.33 level) would result in a failed H&S pattern. If there is no […]
Another emerging market currency that is weakening against the U.S. dollar is Indian rupee. Recent update on the 7th of May drew attention to the possibility of a strong breakout from the low volatility period. USD/INR is now close to 55 levels; last minor resistance before the cross rate targets 56-58 area. Technical outlook is bullish for […]
