Earlier in May I’ve updated two charts on the emerging market currencies USD/INR (Indian Rupee) and USD/TRY (Turkish Lira). Both suggested strong USD in the short/medium-term. We are seeing clear breakouts from consolidation ranges and weakness in major emerging market currencies.
U.S. jobless claims spiked higher in the May 11 week, up 32,000 reaching 360,000. Earlier analysis showed a long-term chart of the weekly jobless claims, reaching strong support levels. Over the past 4 years jobless claims moved from one extreme to another.
Many people must have seen the latest H&S chart pattern on the EUR/USD. If you haven’t seen it above is the price chart of the EUR/USD with its 200 day simple moving average. H&S patterns do fail. Reversal above the right shoulder (1.33 level) would result in a failed H&S pattern. If there is no […]
Another emerging market currency that is weakening against the U.S. dollar is Indian rupee. Recent update on the 7th of May drew attention to the possibility of a strong breakout from the low volatility period. USD/INR is now close to 55 levels; last minor resistance before the cross rate targets 56-58 area. Technical outlook is bullish for […]
U.S. dollar is gaining strength against most of the developed and emerging market currencies. I analyzed USD/TRY in the previous updates and drew attention to the bullish outlook on the dollar versus Turkish Lira. In mid-2011, cross rate broke above 1.75 levels and since then it has been consolidating between 1.75 and 1.90. Last year’s […]
Between 2009 and 2011, Sri Lanka’s COLOMBO ALL SHARE INDEX was one of the best performing equity markets. Since mid-2011 this market has lagged the global equities and its peers in the frontier markets. Now the index is completing a perfect chart formation; cup with handle. Cup with handle formation is considered to be a bullish continuation […]
In December 2012 we have seen Lumber price clearing the strong horizontal resistance at 330 levels. Breakout was followed by a sharp rise towards 400 levels in less than two months. Since March 2013, Lumber has been pulling back to the previously broken support/resistance area. Price should find support between 330 and 340 levels and rebound […]
Latest data on unemployment and jobless claims were welcomed by the financial media and helped equity markets gain momentum. Weekly jobless claims data is now at an important support. Will it reverse from here? We don’t know yet but if we see signs of reversal in the following weeks, resulting in worse than expected job numbers […]
Breakouts from contracting ranges are usually very powerful. The longer the consolidation period the more powerful the breakout is. In the case of USD/INR we are getting closer to a strong breakout from the year-long consolidation range. Breakout above 55 levels will be bullish for the U.S. Dollar and will target 57-58 area on the […]
One of the most exciting chart pattern in grains market is in Oats July 2013 futures contract. This massive symmetrical triangle is likely to break upwards with strong momentum. I posted similar chart patterns earlier on Soy Meal, GBP and Copper. All of them formed perfect symmetrical triangles and were followed by strong breakouts. Oats […]
