Year 2013 could mark the medium/long-term low for the U.S. weekly jobless claims. Over the past 4 years, jobless claims trended lower from 680K levels to 330K levels. This is a significant improvement given the magnitude of the historical swings on this economic time series data. U.S. weekly jobless claims reached an important trend support and if this trend […]
Cocoa prices might be forming a short/medium-term base at the long-term trend channel support. Cocoa had sharp and wide swings over the past decade. The uptrend remained intact as it can be seen from the upward sloping trend channel. In the beginning of 2011, price reversed from the upper boundary of the trend channel at 4,000 levels and reached […]
S&P GSCI (Commodity Index) is in a clear downtrend. Well-defined downward sloping trend line acts as strong resistance at 655 levels. Over the past two years trend line acted as strong resistance and each counter trend reaction reversed from the strong trend resistance. It is now clear that a breakout above this technical level will reverse the […]
May 2013 recorded the low for the Turkish 10 year government bond yields. Year-long downtrend was reversed with the breakout above 7.2 levels. Yields broke above 1) downward sloping trend line at 7.0 2) flat horizontal resistance at 7.2 and 3) 200-day moving average at 7.1. Sharp rally carried the yields to 9.5 levels. Since […]
Emerging market equities are challenging their long-term moving averages. Breakdown below these critical long-term support levels could result in sharp corrections. Since the first quarter of 2013 we have seen weakness in emerging market currencies and their equity indices. Thailand was one of the best performing emerging market over the past 4 years. Though a correction could be as […]
Is this a base formation or a short-term consolidation before the major break down and the resumption of the downtrend? Turkey’s XU 30 Index is holding above its 5 year-long uptrend and a break below 85K could turn into a sharp correction. Latest consolidation below the 200 day moving average has been weak and the […]
After a long break on markets (as I have been enjoying being a father for the first time) I’m back with a blog update on an exciting range breakout in the emerging asia currencies. USD/MYR is trying to breakout from a 2 year-long consolidation range. This pair has been on my watch list for some time. I […]
It is uncharted territory once again for the USD/TRY. For more than a decade USD/TRY (U.S. dollar/Turkish lira) consolidated between 1.75 and 1.15 levels. Cross rate managed to stabilize for more than a decade after the inflationary years of 1990s. It was mid-2011 when the USD/TRY breached the decade-long resistance at 1.75 levels. First the cross […]
It’s been an eventful month so far in Istanbul. Anti-government protests resulted in a sharp sell-off in Borsa Istanbul. Protests can continue for sometime and markets can stay volatile. While it is difficult to understand the price action during these type of event-driven markets, support/resistance levels could be helpful in managing risk. XU 30 index slipped […]
We are likely to see a strong breakout on crude oil in the following days/weeks. Strong resistance is at $97 levels. Downward sloping trend line which acts as strong resistance was tested for five times over the past one year. Breakout from the short/medium-term symmetrical triangle will push prices higher towards $104. This is one of the important […]
