May 2013 recorded the low for the Turkish 10 year government bond yields. Year-long downtrend was reversed with the breakout above 7.2 levels. Yields broke above 1) downward sloping trend line at 7.0 2) flat horizontal resistance at 7.2 and 3) 200-day moving average at 7.1. Sharp rally carried the yields to 9.5 levels. Since […]
Emerging market equities are challenging their long-term moving averages. Breakdown below these critical long-term support levels could result in sharp corrections. Since the first quarter of 2013 we have seen weakness in emerging market currencies and their equity indices. Thailand was one of the best performing emerging market over the past 4 years. Though a correction could be as […]
Is this a base formation or a short-term consolidation before the major break down and the resumption of the downtrend? Turkey’s XU 30 Index is holding above its 5 year-long uptrend and a break below 85K could turn into a sharp correction. Latest consolidation below the 200 day moving average has been weak and the […]
After a long break on markets (as I have been enjoying being a father for the first time) I’m back with a blog update on an exciting range breakout in the emerging asia currencies. USD/MYR is trying to breakout from a 2 year-long consolidation range. This pair has been on my watch list for some time. I […]
It is uncharted territory once again for the USD/TRY. For more than a decade USD/TRY (U.S. dollar/Turkish lira) consolidated between 1.75 and 1.15 levels. Cross rate managed to stabilize for more than a decade after the inflationary years of 1990s. It was mid-2011 when the USD/TRY breached the decade-long resistance at 1.75 levels. First the cross […]
It’s been an eventful month so far in Istanbul. Anti-government protests resulted in a sharp sell-off in Borsa Istanbul. Protests can continue for sometime and markets can stay volatile. While it is difficult to understand the price action during these type of event-driven markets, support/resistance levels could be helpful in managing risk. XU 30 index slipped […]
We are likely to see a strong breakout on crude oil in the following days/weeks. Strong resistance is at $97 levels. Downward sloping trend line which acts as strong resistance was tested for five times over the past one year. Breakout from the short/medium-term symmetrical triangle will push prices higher towards $104. This is one of the important […]
Today we will update our jobless claims data. Since 2009, U.S. jobless claims have been declining from 650K levels to 350K. This has been a strong downtrend and reached levels that proved to be major support over the past decades. 300-350 area is strong support. Higher jobless claims data over the next few months could signal a […]
Russian ruble is another emerging market currency that has lost ground against the U.S. dollar. Over the past 9 months cross rate completed an inverted head and shoulder pattern with the neckline acting as resistance at 31.80 levels. Inverted head shoulder is regarded as a bullish reversal pattern. We are now seeing USD/RUB breaking above the resistance […]
U.S. dollar continues to gain strength against major emerging market currencies. In this update I’m analyzing the USD/ZAR (South African Rand). USD has been strong against the Rand since mid-2011. We are now seeing the uptrend accelerating towards the long-term resistance at 10.70 levels. Earlier tops in 2001 and in 2008 was marked with an upward spike. […]
