In 2014, Qatar has been upgraded to emerging market status with the United Arab Emirates. Vietnam is still in the frontier market universe. Over the past year both indices formed head and shoulder top chart patterns. Head and shoulder is a common reversal chart pattern, that usually forms after a long up/down-trend. Since the beginning of […]
Since the beginning of 2013, emerging markets currencies performed poorly. Though one currency showed resilience over the past 2 years; Philippine Peso. During 2013 the cross-rate moved from 40.5 to 45.5 and in 2014 the performance of Philippine Peso was neutral against the U.S. dollar. Whereas during the same period most of the emerging market currencies […]
Global equity indices are gaining upside momentum. Recent breakouts above long-term trend lines suggest multi-month uptrends. Last week's price action pushed UK FTSE 100 index to all time high levels. Charts that are very close to long-term breakouts: MSCI ALL COUNTRIES WORLD INDEX, EURO STOXX 50 INDEX and UK FTSE 100 INDEX.
Positive price action is likely to continue in the developed market equities.
Peru LIMA IGRA index has one of the weakest chart set-ups in the emerging market equities. Multi-year head and shoulder top has a neckline standing at 14,150 levels. Index is trading at 13,493 levels – below the multi-year support. Decisive “weekly” close below 13,360 levels (minor low in January) will confirm the downtrend towards 10,000 levels. Strong […]
Here is a detailed article that explains the difference between on shore and off shore Chinese Yuan. http://www.businessinsider.com/onshore-and-offshore-renminbi-2014-2 I am analyzing the long-term base formation on the USD/CNH (Chinese Yuan Off Shore) in this update. I think this chart is important as we start reading more about currency wars. Cup & handle is a reversal pattern. In […]
Commodities markets have performed poorly compared with stocks over the past 3 years. From industrial metals to agricultural commodities deflationary pressures are being felt worldwide. Platinum prices which is almost 50% lower than 2008 historical high levels, is now testing a 15 year-long trend support. Usually prices should rebound sharply from such historical level. However, over […]
During the sharp correction in October 2014, S&P 500 index reached 1,800 levels and CBOE VIX jumped to 31 levels. VIX is often called the “fear index”. Higher levels of VIX can coincide with market corrections. Over the past 2 months CBOE VIX has been consolidating in a tight range. Consolidation can be a symmetrical […]
Austria Vienna ATX Index formed similar chart patterns in different time frames. Since 2009 the index has been consolidating in a wide range. Long-term chart pattern is a symmetrical triangle. Over the past six months, ATX index formed a short/medium-term consolidation; another symmetrical triangle. Direction of the breakout from the short-term consolidation range will be important. Breakout above […]
Volatility can move higher in the following months if we see a decisive weekly close above 22 levels. In the last two years CBOE VIX consolidated in a range between 11 and 22. Six year-long downward trend line and the upper boundary of the horizontal consolidation range meet at 22 levels. A decisive break above 22 […]
Strong trends usually emerge from low volatility periods. Low volatility reading on long-term charts is more significant. MSCI Emerging Markets index is getting closer to a strong directional movement after the band width reached multi-decade low level. Index is now in a tight range between 910 and 1,100 levels. Breakout in either direction will result in […]
