UNEMPLOYMENT

I’m sure everybody read the critics on how the data on job numbers were misleading or totally wrong. While the expectation was 8.2% for the month of September, unemployment rate was reported as 7.8%. A sharp drop! Leaving all the conspiracy theories aside, this data was exactly what we needed to resume the downtrend in jobless claims and improve the unemployment numbers. You’ll remember I wrote about the loss of momentum on the jobless claims and how long it took for the unemployment number to decline from 10% to 8% when compared with previous recoveries. With latest data charts are looking better now! I’ve updated the charts below and the conclusion is:  1) Downtrend on the jobless claims continues below the 52 week moving average. 2) Since the 1 year & 2 year moving average bearish crossover, unemployment rate continues to decline. Jobless claims managed to resume its 3 year-long downtrend by staying below its long-term average. 52 week moving average stands at 372K.