Turkish financial sector has been strong over the past few weeks. I don’t have the deep knowledge or the resources to understand the reasoning behind this. I would welcome any thought. But here, I’d like to share some chart evidence that supports further strength in the banking and financial sector stocks in the coming months. I’d also like to draw your attention to the latest bullish development on the Turkish government bond yields (which could have a positive impact on the financial sector).
In September yields were targeting 11.8 levels. That direction would have been disastrous for the Turkish economy. In October we have seen a “V” reversal changing the whole picture to a more bullish one. 2 YR government bond yields can now target 5-6 area in the coming months.
Industrials vs. BIST 100 is a chart that I keep track of since 2003. When industrial sector outperforms it usually signals underperformance for the financial sector and this coincides with market corrections. XU IND/ XU 100 ratio is now reversing from a multi-year resistance suggesting financial sector outperformance and industrial underperformance.
Long-term chart patters are usually very powerful. When I see major chart patterns developing on long-term scale I pay close attention. Below are some of the financial sector stocks that has formed bullish chart patterns. Latest chart patterns or consolidations can be compared with 2010-2012 periods. I think they are similar.
HALKBANK is forming a year-long inverse head and shoulder. Neckline stands at 16.80 levels
KOC HOLDING breaks out to all-time high levels. This is a bullish development.
SABANCI HOLDING formed a year-long inverse head and shoulder. Breakout above 10.60 will be very bullish.
VAKIFLAR BANK formed a year-long inverse head and shoulder with bullish implications. Breakout above 5.30 will be very positive for the stock.
Another inverse head and shoulder chart pattern can be seen on YAPI KREDI BANK.
One would think after sanctions and geopolitical tension Russian equities would experience sharp corrections or at least minor pullback. Chart suggests the opposite. Russian equities are gaining strength and MICEX index is now challenging year-long resistance at 1,530 levels. MICEX Index is cap-weighted composite index calculated based on prices of the 50 most liquid Russian stocks of the largest and dynamically developing Russian issuers presented on the Moscow Exchange. MICEX Index was launched on September 22, 1997 at base value 100. The MICEX Index is calculated in real-time and denominated by Moscow Exchange in Russian rubles. Breakout above 1,530 levels will clear the trend channel and horizontal resistance. Such price action will be positive in the medium/long-term.
And NOVATEK – an energy company with $27 billion market cap is trying to breakout from a 3 year-long sideways consolidation to all-time high levels… Both charts are extremely constructive.
Global equity markets are experiencing significant weakness. I shared several updates over the past few weeks and updated the latest charts on twitter. It is important to share these updates with Tech Charts followers on different platforms. I’m adding latest tweets below.
It is the time to take a more defensive stance in the global equity markets. MSCI All Countries World Index which includes the performance of developed and emerging markets, found resistance at 430 levels and reversed. MACD, a momentum indicator is generating a sell signal on the monthly scale chart. These are all bearish signals.
STOXX 50 index found resistance at 14 year-long trend line at 3,100 levels. It needed a lot of momentum to clear such hurdle and it looks like the European equity benchmark failed to clear the strong multi-year resistance. Strong resistance remains at 3,100 levels.
Japan’s NIKKEI 225 index failed to clear 16,500 levels, another multi-year resistance. Index can pull back to its 2 year-long average at 14,000 levels. For now the market doesn’t have the strength to clear the strong long-term resistance.
UK’s FTSE 100 index reversed from strong multi-year resistance at 6,880 levels. The index failed to breakout to all-time high levels. Resistance remains at 6,880. Breakdown below the 2 year-long average at 6,400 levels can send the index towards 6,000 levels.
Industrial metals continue to remain weak. Charts warn of a slowdown in global growth. Copper, usually regarded as Dr. Copper due to its leading indicator role for economic growth, is warning us of a possible breakdown and a correction.
Chart patterns are result of human interaction. Forces of greed and fear meet in the market place and form identifiable patterns on price charts. Descending triangle is one of the common bearish chart pattern. Horizontal support line shows the level where buyers step in. Downward sloping trend line shows the supply (resistance).
Copper price formed a descending triangle over the past 3 years. Strong support remains at 3 levels. Breakdown below 3 levels can result in a sharp decline towards 2-2.5 range. Latest consolidation should resolve in one direction in the following weeks/month.
Copper had a similar descending triangle during 1989-1993 period. 4 year-year long chart pattern resolved on the downside with the breakdown of 0.95 support level in 1993. In less than six months prices have dropped to 0.72 levels.
Both DAX and Russell 2000 indices formed bearish chart patterns. These are developing chart patterns. In other words we still need to see confirmation. DAX is possibly forming a head and shoulder top. Neckline (support) is at 8,900 levels. Decisive breakdown below 8,900 will confirm the year-long top formation on Germany’s DAX index. Head and shoulder tops are bearish chart patterns.
Russell 2000 index might be forming a complex double top. 1,080 is a critical level for the index. Decisive breakdown below 1,080 levels will confirm the year-long top formation. These two charts should be on our watch list in the following weeks/month.
Lumber prices prepare for a strong breakout from a 2 year-long consolidation. Since the beginning of 2013, prices have been consolidating in a contracting range with the boundaries now standing at 360 and 300 levels. Latest rally towards the upper boundary suggests prices are likely to challenge the strong resistance in the following days/week. A decisive breakout above 360 levels will be positive and will target 400 levels in the short/medium-term.
I frequently share the best breakouts and breakout candidates on twitter. I understand that for many readers it is not the best platform to follow. Ideas can get lost in the timeline. Latest charts that I’ve shared are valuable and it is worth sending it out in a post format. Below are my latest picks from the global equity markets.
Here are some of the emerging market currencies that I see vulnerable against the U.S. dollar in the medium/long-term. U.S. dollar had a strong rally against major cross rates and most of the emerging market currencies. In the short-term we might be due for a pull-back and some weakness for the U.S. dollar but in the medium/long-term we should keep a close eye on these EM currencies.
Brazilian real is weakening towards 2.45 levels. Last one years’ move formed a sideways consolidation. Breakout above 2.45 will be negative for BRL.
I drew attention to the earlier breakout on the Peruvian Nuevo Sol. This was a nice ascending triangle with the resistance at 2.82. Resistance becomes the new support.
Indonesian Rupiah is forming a consolidation right below the decade-long horizontal resistance. Breakout above 12,400 will cause long-term damage on this cross-rate.
Indian Rupee held above the 3 year-long trend line. This shows that the uptrend is still intact. Unless we see USD/INR establishing a move below its 200-day average, I would favor USD against the Indian Rupee.
Russian Ruble continues its slide against the U.S. dollar. Resistance at 36.50 became support. Unless price falls below 36.50, this chart is poised for higher levels.
Scotland will remain part of United Kingdom following historic referendum vote. What is next for the financial markets? Over the past few weeks we have seen increased volatility in the currency markets. GBP/USD cross rate fell from 1.68 levels to 1.60. It is now rebounding back to 1.645 levels. For the equity markets we can’t say the same. It’s been relatively quiet. UK FTSE 100 index remained below the historical high levels at 6,880. This is a 15 year-long resistance and I believe breakout to all-time high levels will be very positive. Below I shared two charts on the UK FTSE 100 index. A monthly chart that covers the last 25 years and a daily chart that shows the last 2 years consolidation. Over the past 2 years there has been 6 to 7 attempts to clear the resistance at 6,880 levels. None of them were successful. Both the long-term and the short-term chart suggests a breakout above 6,880 should be powerful and push UK FTSE 100 index higher in the coming months.
Monthly scale chart of UK FTSE 100 index
Daily scale chart of UK FTSE 100 index