S&P 500 INDEX AND U.S. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (%)

Every week Tech Charts Global Equity Markets report features some of the well-defined, mature classical chart patterns under a lengthy watchlist and the chart pattern breakout signals that took place during that week. Global Equity Markets report covers single stocks from developed, emerging and frontier markets, ETF’s and global equity indices. The report starts with a review section that highlights the important chart developments on global equity benchmarks. This blog post features from the review section the S&P 500 Index and U.S. Unemployment Rate %.

Global economies are going through difficult times. Below I discuss a possibility. In 2011, I wrote a blog post when Global equities were recovering from the 2007-2008 financial melt-down. I analyzed the Unemployment rate with the S&P 500 Index. You can read the blog post here U.S. Unemployment Rate (%) 2011 Blog Post. Since 2011, the unemployment rate remained in a steady downtrend and reached significantly low levels. We are now seeing discussions about Global recession. I refer to my charts to understand the possibility of it taking place in current environment.

The recent sell-off on S&P 500 Index found support at 2018 minor lows (2,460). I’m weighing the possibility of a multi-month long H&S top. If such scenario taking place we are likely to spend the rest of 2020 by forming the right shoulder of the multi-month long top reversal. Stock market is always regarded as a leading indicator for economic activity. When we put the two charts together, the U.S. unemployment rate and the S&P 500 Index, a top reversal would coincide with a bottom on unemployment rate. Please note that these are monthly scale price charts and it can take several months for reversals to take place. And also please note that this is not a forecast. I view this as a possibility. As I get new evidence, I will update these charts.

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