BRENT CRUDE OIL

While you are reading this post please note that I’m not basing my decision-making and my analysis on the latest developments in middle east. I’ve been analyzing Brent crude and the energy sector for some time. Earlier analysis (May 17, 2014 / Mar 29, 2014 / Mar 3, 2014) suggested a strong directional move that is likely to develop. Low volatility periods are usually followed by high volatility and vice versa. Brent Crude oil and energy sector has been consolidating for more than 2 years in a very tight range. This resulted in a historical low volatility. In other words “calm before the storm”. Breakouts from these type of low volatility trading ranges are usually very powerful. This was the basic assumption that I based my analysis on. Latest developments in the middle east can be a trigger for higher prices (still to be seen). Rather than focusing on the short-term news effect I would like to draw your attention to the larger scale breakout that can take place in the energy sector. As I have mentioned in my earlier updates, energy sector is likely to be the hot topic in the second half of the year.