Entries by Aksel Kibar

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

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Lately I’ve been focusing more frequently on the currency markets and especially on crossrates against the U.S. dollar. Several developed and emerging market currencies are forming major reversal patterns (inverted Head & Shoulder) that is bullish for the dollar in the short/medium-term. http://techcharts.wordpress.com/2012/01/22/u-s-dollar-index-eurusd/ (January) http://techcharts.wordpress.com/2012/02/11/u-s-dollar-index-eurusd-2/ (February) Inverted H&S pattern is a widely followed technical chart formation and has a very low failure rate. As […]

WHEAT

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While global equity markets and commodities are experiencing sharp corrections, an underperforming commodity in the grains complex, wheat started breaking out of its range. Latest technical action is similar to the earlier breakout that wheat experienced in the summer of 2010. In July-August period it took 4 weeks for wheat prices to rally 60% after the breakout. Wheat is […]

CBOE VIX (Volatility Index)

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Yesterday’s trading session pushed the Volatility Index higher and CBOE VIX breached the important resistance at 22 levels. This is an important breakout as VIX is now above the inverted Head & Shoulder pattern neckline. Higher VIX signals weakness for equities in the intermediate term. Please note that inverted H&S pattern price target is 30. 22 level will now become […]

CBOE VIX (Volatility Index)

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VIX is the ticker symbol for the Chicago Board Options Exchange Market Volatility Index, a popular measure of the implied volatility of S&P 500 index options. Often referred to as the fear index or the fear gauge, it represents one measure of the market’s expectation of stock market volatility over the next 30 day period. […]

USD/BRL (U.S. DOLLAR/BRAZILIAN REAL)

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The longer it takes for a chart pattern to develop, the more significant it becomes. Breakout from a long-term base formation should be respected. U.S. dollar has been gaining strength against some of the emerging market currencies over the past one year. Though we haven’t experienced a major shift from emerging market currencies to U.S. dollar, reversal chart […]

EUR/USD

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EUR/USD continues to consolidate in a tight range between 1.33 and 1.305. Over the past 3 months currency pair formed a contracting range (symmetrical triangle) that is likely to be followed by a strong trend period. As we get closer to the apex of the triangle formation, probability of breaking out in one direction is […]

EUR/USD

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It has been a busy week with several economic data releases. However it’s not over yet! Today market expects U.S. Q1 GDP. Expectation is to be around 2.5%. 4Q’11 was at 3%. Over the past few days housing data and jobless claims were disappointing. A the back of news flow from Euro Zone (disappointing Italian bill auction yesterday and […]